Using Expected Values in an NCAA Bracket with Upset Points


Call it "Sabermetric Bracketology": I'm in an NCAA pool that awards bonus points for correctly picking underdogs. So, being the good little sabermetrician that I am, I applied expected values in attempt to game the system. It's worked well so far, too: I won my pool last year, and I'm out to a solid lead this year. The main link is to last year's introductory post, and here's this year's follow-up.