There Are Many Failures Along The Way


Erik at Future Redbirds (you thought it was gone? Ha, that's so last week) uses Victor Wang's research on the percentage of prospects that bust to put the talented Cardinal's farm system into perspective: * 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust. * 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust. * 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust. * 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust. * 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust. * 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust. * 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust. * 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust. * 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust. * 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust. * 59% of "B grade" hitting prospects bust. * 52% of "B grade pitching prospects bust. * 83% of "C grade" hitting prospects bust. * Around 75% of all "C grade" pitching prospects bust. Here's a telling quote about pitching prospects: "The Cardinals have 32 grade C players, which is tremendous depth when you think about it, but only 6 of them are likely to make it, and the odds are extremely low that any of them develop into an everyday player. We’re talking about 6 middle relievers, backup catchers, 4th/5th outfielders or utility infielders." David Price is a top ten pitching prospect. Many Rays' fans are anointing him an All-Star already. But he still has a 1/3 chance of being a total nothing in the majors, maybe slightly lower because he's ready for the majors and is ranked towards the top of the top ten. If prospects always lived up to expectations, the league would feature 30 All-Star teams. They bust and disappoint far more often than we tend to realize.