Now that we finally have 3 years of reliable Pitch F/X data, I can attempt something I've wanted to do since I first figured Catcher Block Percentage back in 2008 - projections for the next season.
I'm using a basic Marcel approach to estimate how many runs a given catcher will save in 2010 based on his performance in 2007-2009. I'm not going to outline all the details here, but if anyone is interested, I can add them later.
After the jump we'll get into the full set of results, but I'll share some observations first.
Jason Varitek is projected to 5.6 runs per 120 games, by far the best in the league. That can do a lot to compensate for an offensive decline. His counterpart on the Red Sox last season, George Kotteras projects to be the worst, but that's mainly because he was Tim Wakefield's personal catcher.
Jason Kendall is indeed a 6 run improvement over Miguel Olivo in a full season. Depending on Olivo returning to his offensive form, maybe the tradeoff wasn't so bad for the Royals.
The Yankees have a lot of trouble blocking pitches, and it's not all A.J. Burnett's fault. Both Jorge Posada and Jose Molina struggled before Burnett joined the team.
Kurt Suzuki is quietly turning into quite a player. Besides being a roughly average offensive player at a premium defensive position, he appears to be a very strong defender. Sure most of his value is by being a catcher, but when teams are running Pudge Rodriguez and Omir Santos out there on a regular basis, Suzuki is quite valuable.
Fact: Matt Wieters doesn't block pitches. They are drawn to his glove through the power of awesomeness.
Here's the full list for your projecting pleasure. It includes all players with at least 50 opportunities in 2009.Click on the table headers to sort.
| Catcher | 2010 Est Opps | 2010 BAA | 2010 RAA | 2010 RAA/120 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Varitek | 357 | 21.61 | 5.83 | 5.59 |
| Humberto Quintero | 206 | 9.33 | 2.52 | 4.18 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 427 | 18.93 | 5.11 | 4.1 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 277 | 11.86 | 3.2 | 3.96 |
| Gregg Zaun | 275 | 11.7 | 3.16 | 3.93 |
| Jeff Mathis | 344 | 14.39 | 3.89 | 3.87 |
| Brad Ausmus | 172 | 7.16 | 1.93 | 3.85 |
| Yadier Molina | 439 | 18.23 | 4.92 | 3.84 |
| Mike Redmond | 129 | 5.15 | 1.39 | 3.69 |
| Lou Marson | 86 | 2.59 | 0.7 | 2.78 |
| Chris Coste | 165 | 4.74 | 1.28 | 2.66 |
| Chad Moeller | 133 | 3.43 | 0.93 | 2.38 |
| Mike Rivera | 127 | 2.88 | 0.78 | 2.1 |
| Jason Kendall | 500 | 11.2 | 3.02 | 2.07 |
| Michel Hernandez | 108 | 2.28 | 0.62 | 1.95 |
| Jason LaRue | 158 | 3.24 | 0.87 | 1.89 |
| Wil Nieves | 236 | 4.44 | 1.2 | 1.74 |
| Koyie Hill | 167 | 2.96 | 0.8 | 1.64 |
| Raul Chavez | 188 | 3.04 | 0.82 | 1.49 |
| Matt Wieters | 169 | 2.71 | 0.73 | 1.48 |
| Wyatt Toregas | 86 | 1.26 | 0.34 | 1.36 |
| Craig Tatum | 85 | 1.09 | 0.29 | 1.19 |
| Corky Miller | 105 | 0.78 | 0.21 | 0.69 |
| Taylor Teagarden | 144 | 1.01 | 0.27 | 0.65 |
| Ramon Hernandez | 240 | 1.5 | 0.41 | 0.58 |
| Robinzon Diaz | 134 | 0.57 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| Russell Martin | 407 | 1.59 | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| Omir Santos | 142 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.3 |
| Dioner Navarro | 293 | 0.91 | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Alex Avila | 89 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 89 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Eliezer Alfonzo | 97 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Gerald Laird | 314 | 0.8 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Victor Martinez | 201 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| Ronny Paulino | 167 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Doumit | 293 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Henry Blanco | 160 | -0.4 | -0.11 | -0.23 |
| Landon Powell | 101 | -0.29 | -0.08 | -0.27 |
| Mike Napoli | 306 | -0.97 | -0.26 | -0.29 |
| Jason Jaramillo | 137 | -0.6 | -0.16 | -0.4 |
| Geovany Soto | 301 | -1.58 | -0.43 | -0.49 |
| Rod Barajas | 314 | -1.7 | -0.46 | -0.5 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 201 | -1.17 | -0.32 | -0.54 |
| John Buck | 232 | -1.36 | -0.37 | -0.54 |
| Kenji Johjima | 227 | -1.56 | -0.42 | -0.63 |
| Dave Ross | 148 | -1.03 | -0.28 | -0.64 |
| Ryan Hanigan | 169 | -1.18 | -0.32 | -0.64 |
| Chris Iannetta | 243 | -2 | -0.54 | -0.76 |
| Brian Schneider | 199 | -1.77 | -0.48 | -0.82 |
| Joe Mauer | 280 | -2.55 | -0.69 | -0.84 |
| Nick Hundley | 210 | -2.39 | -0.65 | -1.05 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 215 | -3.14 | -0.85 | -1.35 |
| Brian McCann | 283 | -4.28 | -1.16 | -1.4 |
| John Baker | 227 | -3.84 | -1.04 | -1.56 |
| Jesus Flores | 186 | -3.19 | -0.86 | -1.59 |
| Josh Bard | 202 | -3.55 | -0.96 | -1.62 |
| Eli Whiteside | 114 | -2.31 | -0.62 | -1.87 |
| Bengie Molina | 350 | -7.44 | -2.01 | -1.96 |
| Chris Snyder | 236 | -6.02 | -1.63 | -2.36 |
| Jose Morales | 93 | -2.55 | -0.69 | -2.53 |
| Paul Bako | 188 | -5.43 | -1.47 | -2.67 |
| Brayan Pena | 97 | -2.87 | -0.78 | -2.73 |
| Ramon Castro | 114 | -3.66 | -0.99 | -2.97 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 263 | -9.83 | -2.65 | -3.45 |
| Kelly Shoppach | 241 | -9.1 | -2.46 | -3.49 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 294 | -11.75 | -3.17 | -3.69 |
| Rob Johnson | 131 | -5.45 | -1.47 | -3.84 |
| Miguel Olivo | 291 | -12.67 | -3.42 | -4.02 |
| Jorge Posada | 217 | -9.47 | -2.56 | -4.03 |
| Jose Molina | 168 | -7.91 | -2.14 | -4.35 |
| Miguel Montero | 248 | -12.53 | -3.38 | -4.67 |
| George Kottaras | 96 | -6.77 | -1.83 | -6.51 |