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No Pepper

When I read Geoff Young, I find myself knowing less after I'm done that I knew when I started. And now he tells me that's the whole point? Oh, brother, now I'm really confused. The punchline:

The downside to this type of skepticism is that people often think you are a complete nutjob. Worse, they may be right.

I remain skeptical.

For your daily dose of contrariness, Greg Fertel thinks Brett Garner is more valuable than Jason Bay, even without considering contracts. Oho! Doth my UZR deceive me?

Forecasters, start your engines. The game is afoot for the title of "most accurate." I'm sticking with my tea leaves, thank you very much.

Though it's Insider-only, Tom Haberstroh uses PITCHf/x to rank the game's nastiest pitches. Top three: Lincecum's change of speed (2009 vintage), Mo's cutter, Sabathia's slider (2008).

The logical fallacy of the day is the "all else equal" fallacy. Regression analyses are particularly susceptible to this type of mistake. Ceteris paribus, this is my favorite logical fallacy.