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Which Side Won When Bobby Abreu Re-signed for $19 Million with the Angels?

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Bobby Abreu re-signed with with the Angels today for $9 million guaranteed in each of the next two seasons with a $9 million vesting option for 2012 that includes a $1 million buyout.  The option is guaranteed if Abreu has 550 PA in 2011 or 1,200 in 2010-11 combined.  On the surface, this deal looks decent, but will Bobby be able to contribute enough to warrant his salary.

Batting:  Bobby projects to have a 0.365 wOBA for next season (I weighted of the pre-season projections with a value of 2 and a weighted value of 1 for the 2009 season).  This computes to about 20 RAA (runs above average) for 600 PA in a season.    Adding in the adjustment for a replacement player with 600 PA of ~20 runs, his value from hitting puts him at +40 RAR (runs above replacement).

Fielding:  Bobby's is not the best fielder as seen by is UZR values of -14.4, -2.5,-25.3, and -12.1 for the years 2006 to 2009.  It can be assumed that his fielding is somewhere near or above -10 UZR or 10 runs worse than the average corner outfielder.

Replacement:  A -10 UZR value for a corner outfield is a magic number for staying in the OF or being the DH.  The positional adjustment for a corner OF is -7.5 runs. The adjustment for the DH is -17.5 runs.  If Bobby is worse than -10 UZR he should be moved to DH where he won't have to take the field and accumulate negative UZR. With Vladimir Guerrero a free agent, the DH spot looks to be Bobby's for the taking. 

Total Runs and Wins Added:

Corner OF: 40 RAR + -10 UZR + -7.5 positional runs = 22.5 RAR

DH: 40 RAR + 0 UZR + -17.5 positional runs = 22.5 RAR

Taking the 22.5 RAR and converting it to wins (22.5/10.5) leads to 2.1 WAR contributed by Bobby.  With the current FA rate of $ per WAR at $4.4 million, Bobby's production should demand a salary of 9.25 million.  Looks like both the Angels and Bobby came out pretty even on this deal.  Congrats to both sides for a fair contract.