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Projected WAR and Contract Values for Free Agent Position Players

By Jeff Zimmerman

Combining a couple of my previous article on UZR projections (now updated with UZR/150 values) and the wOBA to WAR conversion,  I have created a spreadsheet to project 2010 WAR values of most FA hitters and determine how much money should be spent for the player's production for a multi-year contract. 

Here are the 20 top projected free agent position players:

Rank Name 2010 Projected WAR Position UZR/150 OBP SLG PA
1 Matt Holliday 4.7 LF 5 0.376 0.510 646
2 Chone Figgins 3.0 3B 7 0.375 0.367 603
3 Adrian Beltre 2.9 3B 10 0.322 0.448 544
4 Joe Crede 2.6 3B 13 0.317 0.439 410
5 Troy Glaus 2.4 3B 2 0.351 0.436 461
6 Marco Scutaro 2.4 SS 1 0.362 0.376 511
7 Placido Polanco 2.3 2B 6 0.338 0.398 594
8 Jason Bay 2.3 LF -10 0.367 0.486 622
9 Miguel Tejada 2.1 SS -4 0.330 0.430 603
10 Mike Cameron 2.0 CF 5 0.321 0.420 582
11 Marlon Byrd 1.9 CF 0 0.335 0.433 513








13 Johnny Damon 1.8 LF 0 0.355 0.430 597
14 Felipe Lopez 1.7 2B 2 0.342 0.377 628
15 Nick Johnson 1.7 1B -1 0.395 0.407 552
16 Mark DeRosa 1.7 3B -1 0.335 0.416 543
17 Bengie Molina 1.6 C 0 0.288 0.421 486
18 Orlando Cabrera 1.5 SS 1 0.326 0.374 631
19 Coco Crisp 1.5 CF 3 0.342 0.386 430
20 Miguel Olivo 1.4 C 0 0.276 0.433 416

Instructions and assumption on using the spreadsheet after the jump.

Assumptions/Instructions

  • UZR/150 values were used.

  • Projected hitting values are from Chone's projected batting values.  I didn't need to have BA included, but I kept it there to make the cut and paste easier from Chones projections page.

  • To calculate the the wOBA, I used (1.66 * OBA + SLG)/3 = wOBA where the 1.66 from determining what multiple helped to predict the wOBA best for all qualified 2009 hitters.

  • I used 4.4 million dollars per WAR as the rate to paid for all years the player signs.  The user can feel free to change these values to what ever value they want.

  • Each player was projected to age by 0.5 WAR per year not matter what their age is currently.  Most are over the age of 31, so I don't see this as a problem.  If the user want to change these values in the cells, feel free.

  • To get the ideal contract value for the projected WAR, goto column Y on the spreadsheet.  Columns Y, Z and AA are the values projected for a 1 year contract in 2009 using the above assumptions.  These values continure for up to eight years.  For example, a 6 year contract for Matt Holliday would be worth 90.4 millions dollars according to the methods I used in the spreadsheet.

  • Players can be added and values changed as the user see fit.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments.

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