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Playoff Games of the Day (10/7/2009) - Analysis and Discussion

By Jeff Zimmerman

BtB is going with one thread for all of today's games, scheduled for seven minutes past 2:30, 6:00, and 9:30 EDT.  Feel free to jump in and out throughout the day.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies

Home Plate Umpire - Gerry Davis

Gerry is a hitter's umpire.  Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 20th in runs scored per game, allowed the 29th highest total in BB/game and the 7th lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data).  Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:

Jdrhh_medium

Jdlhh_medium

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

Phillies10_7_medium


Rockies_medium


Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP.  For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections.  Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit.  For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty.   For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).

 

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Home Plate Umpire - Tim Tschida

Tim is an extreme hitter's umpire.  Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 3rd in runs scored per game, allowed the 3rd highest total in BB/game and the 15th lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data).  Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:


Ttrhh_medium


Ttlhh_medium

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

Team Total UZR
Yankees -7.5
Twins -11.8


Minn107_medium

Ny107_medium

Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP.  For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections.  Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit.  For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty.   For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).


Twins
Starting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
2 Denard Span L/L 0.388 0.449 0.378 0.372 0.398 0.344
18 Orlando Cabrera R/R 0.333 0.404 0.334 0.360 0.407 0.345
7 Joe Mauer L/R 0.425 0.488 0.412 0.396 0.437 0.374
5 Michael Cuddyer R/R 0.341 0.455 0.366 0.368 0.458 0.376
16 Jason Kubel L/R 0.364 0.471 0.382 0.335 0.420 0.344
21 Delmon Young R/R 0.331 0.431 0.349 0.358 0.434 0.360
23 Brendan Harris R/R 0.329 0.422 0.343 0.356 0.425 0.354
20 Matt Tolbert S/R 0.352 0.408 0.343 0.352 0.408 0.343
8 Nick Punto S/R 0.342 0.347 0.306 0.342 0.347 0.306


Pinch Hitting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
19 Justin Huber R/R 0.269 0.384 0.317 0.296 0.387 0.327
22 Carlos Gomez R/R 0.24 0.35 0.29 0.27 0.35 0.3
24 Joe Crede R/R 0.240 0.405 0.319 0.267 0.408 0.329
25 Alexi Casilla S/R 0.27 0.32 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.28
32 Brian Buscher L/R 0.3 0.37 0.32 0.27 0.32 0.28
33 Justin Morneau L/R 0.309 0.459 0.371 0.280 0.408 0.333
55 Mike Redmond R/R 0.26 0.34 0.29 0.29 0.35 0.3
58 Jose Morales S/R 0.3 0.39 0.33 0.3 0.39 0.33

Link to Lineup Analysis

Best RPG with Players 5.27
Predicted RPG 5.22
Worst RPG 5.03


Yankees
Starting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
2 Derek Jeter R/R 0.357 0.419 0.351 0.384 0.450 0.377
18 Johnny Damon L/L 0.364 0.452 0.371 0.335 0.401 0.333
25 Mark Teixeira S/R 0.379 0.517 0.413 0.379 0.517 0.413
13 Alex Rodriguez R/R 0.365 0.507 0.402 0.392 0.538 0.428
55 Hideki Matsui L/R 0.368 0.466 0.380 0.371 0.415 0.353
20 Jorge Posada S/R 0.366 0.468 0.381 0.366 0.468 0.381
24 Robinson Cano L/R 0.352 0.477 0.381 0.323 0.426 0.343
33 Nick Swisher S/L 0.355 0.443 0.363 0.355 0.443 0.363
53 Melky Cabrera S/L 0.334 0.381 0.322 0.346 0.412 0.343


Pinch Hitting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
11 Brett Gardner L/L 0.266 0.364 0.304 0.237 0.313 0.266
14 Eric Hinske L/R 0.269 0.407 0.329 0.240 0.356 0.291
17 Jerry Hairston Jr. R/R 0.238 0.343 0.283 0.265 0.374 0.310
19 Ramiro Pena S/R 0.214 0.269 0.235 0.214 0.269 0.235
26 Jose Molina R/R 0.207 0.300 0.249 0.234 0.331 0.276
28 Shelley Duncan R/R 0.235 0.358 0.291 0.262 0.389 0.317
29 Francisco Cervelli R/R 0.249 0.361 0.297 0.276 0.392 0.324
47 Freddy Guzman S/R 0.251 0.353 0.293 0.251 0.353 0.293
72 Juan Miranda L/L 0.286 0.399 0.331 0.257 0.348 0.293

Link to lineup analysis


 Runs per Game
Max 5.69
Predicted 5.59
Min 5.37


St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Home Plate Umpire - Dana DeMuth

Dana is a hitter's umpire.  Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 18th in runs scored per game, allowed the 24th highest total in BB/game and the 29th lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data).  Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:



Ddrhh_medium


Ddlhh_medium

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

I am out for the night so for the defense you will need to reference: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/10/3/1067936/playoff-teams-defense-analysis-how

Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP.  For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections.  Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit.  For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty.   For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).

Here is the spreadsheet for the lineups for this game.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdDVNMmRZcXFfWjhTUVJMZHV4OGpXUHc&hl=en

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