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BtB Power Rankings: 10/1/09

By JinAZ

Pwr-20091001-sm_medium

See the rest below the jump!


Pwr-20091001_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (asterisks indicate new leaders):

American League: E=Yankees, C=White Sox, W=Angels, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Rockies*, WC=Dodgers

This Weeks' Movers

As I write this, there are three races still to be settled in the real standings. In the AL Central, the Tigers are trying to hang on against a surging Twins team. The power rankings see them as virtually identical in overall performance: their component winning percentage (see tables below) for Detroit is 0.499, while for the Twins it is 0.495. The Twins, thanks to Joe Mauer, have the better offense. But the Tigers are the better fielding team, and that's what puts them on top.

In the NL West, the Dodgers and Rockies have been going back and forth at the top of the NL component of the power rankings. The Dodgers took a bit of a hit on a lackluster week (won 2 of their last 8; largest drop in TQI of the week), but have already clinched a playoff spot. The Dodgers are the most balanced of NL teams--third best NL offense, third best pitching, and well above-average fielding. The pitching-heavy Rockies keep on winning, though, and have a substantial lead over the Braves and Giants in the power rankings. A four-game lead with a half-week to play doesn't give them much time to screw that up.

Converting Runs to Wins

Team Team RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% LgAdj TQI
ARI ARI 667 677 729 662 0.430 0.459 0.510 -20 0.483
ATL ATL 726 723 625 666 0.544 0.569 0.538 -20 0.512
BAL BAL 707 694 851 835 0.380 0.411 0.412 20 0.436
BOS BOS 808 816 693 720 0.576 0.572 0.560 20 0.584
CHA CHW 681 672 698 675 0.484 0.488 0.498 20 0.525
CHN CHC 670 676 630 645 0.519 0.528 0.522 -20 0.494
CIN CIN 645 620 689 712 0.481 0.470 0.436 -20 0.409
CLE CLE 758 767 833 822 0.411 0.454 0.467 20 0.491
COL COL 723 738 642 593 0.570 0.555 0.600 -20 0.573
DET DET 729 725 715 727 0.538 0.509 0.499 20 0.524
FLA FLA 770 776 769 775 0.535 0.501 0.501 -20 0.476
HOU HOU 642 656 759 756 0.462 0.423 0.434 -20 0.408
KC KCR 671 651 814 771 0.409 0.409 0.422 20 0.448
LAA LAA 875 844 751 802 0.595 0.574 0.525 20 0.548
LAN LAD 783 783 616 642 0.585 0.610 0.593 -20 0.567
MIL MIL 757 758 792 795 0.487 0.478 0.477 -20 0.453
MIN MIN 775 780 742 788 0.519 0.521 0.495 20 0.520
NYA NYY 898 948 733 730 0.642 0.598 0.626 20 0.648
NYN NYM 655 676 755 771 0.421 0.434 0.439 -20 0.413
OAK OAK 765 722 758 702 0.475 0.504 0.513 20 0.539
PHI PHI 789 786 674 704 0.582 0.574 0.552 -20 0.527
PIT PIT 642 629 768 756 0.386 0.416 0.415 -20 0.390
SD SDP 686 690 824 802 0.465 0.413 0.429 -20 0.404
SEA SEA 645 658 700 715 0.519 0.463 0.461 20 0.488
SF SFG 633 599 595 644 0.538 0.528 0.468 -20 0.440
STL STL 714 719 627 655 0.570 0.560 0.543 -20 0.517
TB TBR 789 815 741 696 0.519 0.530 0.574 20 0.599
TEX TEX 740 709 706 686 0.538 0.522 0.516 20 0.542
TOR TOR 769 783 732 734 0.472 0.523 0.531 20 0.556
WAS WSN 687 711 856 858 0.348 0.396 0.410 -20 0.386

Table Legend

RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage (previously eW%lg), using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TQI = Team Quality Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses & Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP tERA tRuns Field Catch
NYY 898 948 0.364 954 -5 -10 733 730 4.27 4.33 4.30 734 6 -2
LAA 875 844 0.350 844 1 18 751 802 4.48 4.58 4.70 793 2 -10
TBR 789 815 0.346 812 3 -22 741 696 4.39 4.41 4.45 741 42 2
BOS 808 816 0.345 816 1 -36 693 720 4.37 4.29 4.06 681 -30 -9
PHI 789 786 0.339 786 0 32 674 704 4.14 4.26 4.32 734 27 4
MIN 775 780 0.339 775 5 -26 742 788 4.53 4.52 4.50 756 -30 -1
TOR 769 783 0.337 774 9 -70 732 734 4.40 4.24 4.24 724 -18 9
FLA 770 776 0.336 777 -1 13 769 775 4.33 4.16 4.38 744 -27 -3
LAD 783 783 0.335 788 -5 -26 616 642 3.45 3.74 3.83 663 25 -4
CLE 758 767 0.335 770 -3 -44 833 822 4.99 4.74 4.71 791 -33 1
MIL 757 758 0.335 769 -11 8 792 795 4.81 4.80 4.75 796 6 -5
COL 723 738 0.332 732 7 -37 642 593 4.24 3.86 3.56 599 9 -3
DET 729 725 0.330 728 -3 17 715 727 4.31 4.53 4.60 771 30 14
STL 714 719 0.330 716 3 9 627 655 3.64 3.91 3.98 668 4 9
TEX 740 709 0.329 712 -2 -17 706 686 4.41 4.53 4.36 730 40 5
OAK 765 722 0.328 709 13 -28 758 702 4.30 4.20 4.11 694 -14 6
ATL 726 723 0.327 736 -14 -19 625 666 3.59 3.64 3.85 655 -15 4
WSN 687 711 0.326 720 -10 -39 856 858 5.12 4.85 4.98 823 -26 -9
BAL 707 694 0.324 717 -23 -26 851 835 5.20 4.91 4.81 801 -37 3
SDP 686 690 0.323 696 -6 30 824 802 4.42 4.44 4.65 792 -11 1
NYM 655 676 0.321 674 2 -6 755 771 4.54 4.49 4.42 741 -36 7
CHW 681 672 0.320 681 -9 -20 698 675 4.20 4.01 3.80 644 -26 -6
HOU 642 656 0.320 656 0 27 759 756 4.54 4.23 4.40 735 -24 4
SEA 645 658 0.319 660 -2 19 700 715 3.89 4.51 4.67 793 71 7
ARI 667 677 0.319 683 -6 -33 729 662 4.44 4.13 3.97 672 21 -12
CHC 670 676 0.319 690 -14 -47 630 645 3.81 4.00 3.83 650 -2 7
KCR 671 651 0.317 660 -9 -15 814 771 4.73 4.42 4.14 695 -58 -17
PIT 642 629 0.314 637 -8 -19 768 756 4.58 4.58 4.58 765 14 -6
CIN 645 620 0.310 630 -10 -16 689 712 4.16 4.49 4.52 770 45 12
SFG 633 599 0.308 588 12 28 595 644 3.59 3.93 4.03 680 42 -6

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's fielding composite fielding statistics from Baseball Prospectus
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
tERA = Estimated Earned Run Average, a home brew version of Graham McAree's statistic)
tRuns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on tERA
BABIP = Straight-up Batting Average on Balls In Play
Field = An average of bUZR from FanGraphs and THT's team fielding statistic, converted to runs.
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, and E's, described here

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