After publishing my original post, I came up with another way of looking at the data. Instead of comparing a team's expected wins (based on payroll) to their actual wins, we can compare how much money a team actually spent to win their games to how much we would have expected they needed to spend. This will show us which teams saved money, which teams wasted money, and to what extent. The table should be pretty self-explanatory. All dollars are in millions:
Lg | Team | AdjWins | Exp Pay | Act Pay | Savings |
A | Tampa Bay Rays | 99 | $243 | $44 | $199 |
A | Los Angeles Angels | 102 | $278 | $119 | $158 |
A | Minnesota Twins | 90 | $152 | $57 | $95 |
N | Chicago Cubs | 95 | $208 | $118 | $89 |
A | Boston Red Sox | 97 | $222 | $133 | $88 |
N | Florida Marlins | 82 | $100 | $22 | $78 |
N | Milwaukee Brewers | 88 | $140 | $81 | $59 |
N | Philadelphia Phillies | 90 | $157 | $98 | $58 |
A | Toronto Blue Jays | 88 | $140 | $98 | $43 |
A | Chicago White Sox | 91 | $160 | $121 | $39 |
N | Houston Astros | 84 | $114 | $89 | $25 |
A | Cleveland Indians | 83 | $103 | $79 | $24 |
A | Texas Rangers | 81 | $90 | $68 | $22 |
A | Oakland Athletics | 77 | $67 | $48 | $19 |
N | Arizona Diamondbacks | 80 | $83 | $66 | $17 |
N | St. Louis Cardinals | 84 | $110 | $100 | $11 |
A | Kansas City Royals | 77 | $64 | $58 | $6 |
N | New York Mets | 87 | $133 | $138 | -$5 |
N | Los Angeles Dodgers | 82 | $96 | $119 | -$22 |
N | Colorado Rockies | 72 | $36 | $69 | -$33 |
N | Cincinnati Reds | 72 | $36 | $74 | -$38 |
A | Baltimore Orioles | 70 | $28 | $67 | -$40 |
A | New York Yankees | 91 | $165 | $209 | -$44 |
N | Pittsburgh Pirates | 65 | $1 | $49 | -$48 |
N | San Francisco Giants | 70 | $25 | $77 | -$51 |
N | Atlanta Braves | 70 | $25 | $102 | -$77 |
A | Detroit Tigers | 76 | $58 | $138 | -$79 |
N | Washington Nationals | 57 | -$32 | $55 | -$87 |
N | San Diego Padres | 61 | -$17 | $74 | -$91 |
A | Seattle Mariners | 63 | -$8 | $118 | -$126 |
Some notes:
- In order to expect to win as many games as the Rays and Angels did takes more money than the Yankees' payroll. And the Rays saved more money than any team but the Yankees spent.
- Speaking of the Yankees, yes, they certainly wasted a fair amount of money ($44MM), but seven teams managed to waste more.
- The Blue Jays ranked ninth in payroll efficiency. More fire-power for the anti-Ricciardi crowd (err, sarcasm).
- Mr. Bowden, we understand that organizations put together a truly awful season every now and then, but did you really have to $55MM during a crappy season? The Twins spent $57MM and, well, were better.
- I did not realize the Mets had the second-highest payroll last year. Where they're at, however, it's almost a no-brainer to spend a bit more. Wins in the 85 to 90 range are HUGE.