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Fun With Standings

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Over at Baseball Prospectus you can find "third order" adjusted standings. Basically, these standings are based upon AEQA - adjusted equivalent average. In other words, how many runs a team "should" have scored and "should" have given up, based upon their (and their opponent's) batting line, adjusted for strength of schedule.

The idea is that these standings paint a picture of a team's "True Ability", and that any deviation from these standings is probably due to things outside of a team's control (like batting with runners in scoring position, or having your pitchers leave more men on base than average).

These standings change nothing about the past. But they do have an influence on the future, as they are more reflective of a team's True Ability than actual standings.

With that said, here are third-order standings:

 

Boston 91 53
Tampa Bay 86 57
Toronto 82 62
New York 81 64
Baltimore 67 76
Chicago 80 64
Cleveland 75 68
Minnesota 73 71
Detroit 73 72
Kansas City 64 81
Los Angeles 75 69
Oakland 70 74
Texas 70 75
Seattle 60 83
New York 79 65
Philadelphia 76 69
Atlanta 71 74
Florida 70 75
Washington 57 88
Chicago 85 59
Milwaukee 79 66
St Louis 74 70
Houston 70 75
Cincinnati 61 84
Pittsburgh 54 90
Los Angeles 78 67
Arizona 72 72
Colorado 71 74
San Francisco 63 81
San Diego 62 83

A few notes:

* The Red Sox are really, really good.

* The Blue Jays are the third best team in the AL...and in the AL East.

* The Angels are not that good (more on them later in the week), and the difference between them and Texas and Oakland is not that large.

*Pittsburgh and Washington are awful. At least the Pirates have a somewhat bright future.

*Despite injuries to Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner, the Indians are still a good team this year. Look out for them next season.

*The eight playoff teams, as of today, according to "regular" standings are the same eight teams that would make the playoffs, accoding to third-order standings.