Over at Baseball Prospectus you can find "third order" adjusted standings. Basically, these standings are based upon AEQA - adjusted equivalent average. In other words, how many runs a team "should" have scored and "should" have given up, based upon their (and their opponent's) batting line, adjusted for strength of schedule.
The idea is that these standings paint a picture of a team's "True Ability", and that any deviation from these standings is probably due to things outside of a team's control (like batting with runners in scoring position, or having your pitchers leave more men on base than average).
These standings change nothing about the past. But they do have an influence on the future, as they are more reflective of a team's True Ability than actual standings.
With that said, here are third-order standings:
Boston | 91 | 53 |
Tampa Bay | 86 | 57 |
Toronto | 82 | 62 |
New York | 81 | 64 |
Baltimore | 67 | 76 |
Chicago | 80 | 64 |
Cleveland | 75 | 68 |
Minnesota | 73 | 71 |
Detroit | 73 | 72 |
Kansas City | 64 | 81 |
Los Angeles | 75 | 69 |
Oakland | 70 | 74 |
Texas | 70 | 75 |
Seattle | 60 | 83 |
New York | 79 | 65 |
Philadelphia | 76 | 69 |
Atlanta | 71 | 74 |
Florida | 70 | 75 |
Washington | 57 | 88 |
Chicago | 85 | 59 |
Milwaukee | 79 | 66 |
St Louis | 74 | 70 |
Houston | 70 | 75 |
Cincinnati | 61 | 84 |
Pittsburgh | 54 | 90 |
Los Angeles | 78 | 67 |
Arizona | 72 | 72 |
Colorado | 71 | 74 |
San Francisco | 63 | 81 |
San Diego | 62 | 83 |
A few notes:
* The Red Sox are really, really good.
* The Blue Jays are the third best team in the AL...and in the AL East.
* The Angels are not that good (more on them later in the week), and the difference between them and Texas and Oakland is not that large.
*Pittsburgh and Washington are awful. At least the Pirates have a somewhat bright future.
*Despite injuries to Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner, the Indians are still a good team this year. Look out for them next season.
*The eight playoff teams, as of today, according to "regular" standings are the same eight teams that would make the playoffs, accoding to third-order standings.