For more on BaseRuns. What I decided to do was run numbers based on teams baseruns projected record (over 162 games) versus their "real" projected records based on current winning percentage. Since most teams have about 30 games left we probably won't see too big of a swing, but I'm curious if some of these teams regress (or progress) over the next month and some. In fact when the season is over I plan to review the numbers just to see which pair of numbers worked out.
Here are the numbers we need to worry about:
| Team | RS | RA | Proj W | Real W | Difference |
| ANA | 560 | 552 | 82 | 98 | -16 |
| MIN | 603 | 607 | 81 | 91 | -10 |
| HOU | 577 | 656 | 72 | 82 | -10 |
| TBA | 595 | 528 | 90 | 99 | -9 |
| MIL | 626 | 572 | 88 | 94 | -6 |
| PIT | 579 | 742 | 63 | 69 | -6 |
| CIN | 559 | 673 | 67 | 71 | -4 |
| FLO | 590 | 602 | 79 | 83 | -4 |
| SLN | 677 | 637 | 86 | 89 | -3 |
| PHI | 630 | 590 | 86 | 89 | -3 |
| KCA | 515 | 630 | 66 | 68 | -2 |
| SFN | 509 | 587 | 71 | 72 | -1 |
| CHN | 710 | 551 | 100 | 101 | -1 |
| TEX | 720 | 738 | 79 | 80 | -1 |
| NYN | 638 | 566 | 90 | 89 | 1 |
| CHA | 670 | 560 | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| NYA | 627 | 574 | 88 | 86 | 2 |
| CLE | 599 | 594 | 82 | 80 | 2 |
| BAL | 656 | 665 | 80 | 77 | 3 |
| WAS | 488 | 634 | 62 | 58 | 4 |
| COL | 638 | 647 | 80 | 76 | 4 |
| DET | 668 | 657 | 82 | 78 | 4 |
| OAK | 505 | 522 | 79 | 74 | 5 |
| BOS | 694 | 544 | 99 | 94 | 5 |
| TOR | 564 | 514 | 88 | 83 | 5 |
| ARI | 581 | 529 | 88 | 83 | 5 |
| LAN | 540 | 517 | 84 | 79 | 5 |
| SEA | 545 | 654 | 68 | 61 | 7 |
| ATL | 599 | 578 | 84 | 71 | 13 |
| SDN | 535 | 581 | 75 | 62 | 13 |
Obviously some teams have been bitten by the injury bug -- San Diego has been nearly devoured by the damn thing -- which makes their projected records a bit off if (when) they get healthy. A team like Boston for instance, without Mike Lowell and possibly J.D. Drew are probably less likely to match their production thus far this season than say the Chicago Cubs who aren't missing any key components right now. I'm not quite sure what to expect, but which of the two methods do you think will result in more accuracy?
Update: Thankfully Sky pointed out a mistake I made in the original formula, the numbers above are accurate.