With Ken Griffey Jr. hitting number 600 last night it seemed like a reasonable time to examine some players hall of fame chances, beginning of course with Griffey. The method used is one developed by Jay Jaffe and executed by that one guy who writes here, Normandin or something, You can read more about it in that link, but essentially it's comparing WARP3 numbers for prime years amongst other things.
Ken Griffey Jr.
Griffey blows away the average outfielder in the hall, that's without even correctly classifying Griffey Jr. in center, where the numbers would go down slightly. Even so Griffey shatters the guidelines.
It's probably safe to say Manny's 500th homerun locked him in, but interestingly enough he's just slightly off from the average outfielder. Assuming he doesn't retire after this season -- and I don't think he will -- he's almost definitely going to lock himself in with one more good season.
Likely the biggest case of "what if", Garciaparra had six very good seasons, but his final "peak" season was only four wins above replacement, otherwise his peak years put him there, if the rest of his career doesn't quite.
A very solid peak, but otherwise Giambi would need a few more decent seasons to have a legitimate shot. Considering his name is pretty clean, despite essentially admitting to steroid usage, Giambi likely won't be taken out off of ballets due to his usage.
Ichiro's candidacy would depend on the amount of respect for his Japanese accomplishments were given. A few more good seasons in America couldn't hurt either.