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On Edwin Jackson

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To state the obvious, he’s not going to possess a 0.93 WHIP or 0.64 ERA for the rest of the year, month, and probably not even the week. His numbers thus far are simply a mirage and the lake that lies ahead is actually a patch of quicksand. He’s going to sink, and fast. Take a look at Jackson’s core ratios: H/9, K/9, BB/9, K/BB.

Jackson081_medium

I’m sure you notice that Jackson’s strikeout rates have fallen along with his walk rate, and that his K/BB rate has only marginally increased. Note his absurdly low hit per nine totals as well, which of course leads me to the trend stats:

Jackson082_medium

By now, if you’ve been reading me for any amount of time, you know how much I stress the old xBABIP – BABIP method of finding whether a pitcher is lucky or unlucky so you can surely guess my feelings on Jackson’s chances of continuing his success, even if it has only saved him five hits (using (xBABIP*chances)-(BABIP*chances) to derive projected hits). Factor in that Jackson’s not striking more people out, but is thankfully walking less but hasn’t been hit like he will be, and frankly I’m not overly optimistic on his chances of being overly successful going forward.