clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Probables: Grady Sizemore

As baseball fans, we always love to hear the comparisons between past, present, and in some cases future major leaguers. It's part of the reason PECOTA is so popular, along with it's accuracy of predicting future seasons. For that reason I'd like to present "Probables", an "all-in-one" look at a certain player's short term future predictions, and what better way to lead it off but by taking a look at one of the best leadoff hitters in the league, Grady Sizemore.



Please do note that I'm looking for the closest match that shares the position, in some cases just OF or just MI/CI.

PECOTA: Ray Lankford

Bill James Similarity Score (by age): Duke Snider

Lahman Database match: Reggie Sanders

SaberScouting comparison: Marquis Grissom

What we'll attempt to do with our set of comparisons is see what Sizemore could do in the next few seasons. 

At the age of 25 though, the fact is that Sizemore is the best player of the bunch, even better than Snider, and to be fair Sizemore has been in the majors longer than all of the players were except for Snider. Here's how each player progressed from ages 25 to 27.


Realistically looking at Sizemore's next three seasons  I think we can eliminate a Snider like power onset as well as Grissom's stolen base totals, leaving us to choose between Sanders and Lankford. A run of 20/20 seasons with a possible 30/30 season doesn't seem too far out of reach for Sizemore who hit 28 homeruns just two seasons ago and stole 33 bases last season.

If Sizemore's career continues on the Sanders/Lankford path he could end up with a career OPS+ around the 120 mark, a decrease from his current mark.