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Ibanez to Philly


I guess the Phillies decided to stay with a no-field all-hit outfielder in left, but this one might not end too well. Ibanez is 36 (he'll turn 37 next June) and should all ready be dictated to first or DHing. Here's how the defensive metrics see Ibanez:

UZR/150: -11

Justin: -17.1

Chone: -13

PMR: -7.56

That's an average of -12.2. Ibanez has been solid offensively for a while. His past three seasons worth of wRAA are 16.7, 13.5, and last year 16.3. Unfortunately, age will eventually catch up to Ibanez, and when it does those offensive numbers will slide off a bit. This wouldn't be an issue if Ibanez provided defensive value, but as it stands he's just shy of being a 2 WAR outfielder.

If you assume Ibanez maintains a 1.9 WAR level in 2009 and then begins a 0.5 WAR decline at the end of his contract he will be worth 25.5 million. That's not too bad. The Phillies are high on the win curve so that checks out. It just seems a bit counter-productive to sign essentially the same style of player, only with a weaker bat, same awful glove, and a more pending decline. Maybe Burrell was demanding an outrageous sum, but if you're going to get an all-hit outfielder, you may as well get the better hitter.