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Sabathia to New York for 160 Million? Lowe Next?

Unofficial, but everyone seems to be confident that it's going to get done.

If the deal does indeed finalize as 7 years 160 million, that's roughly 23 million a year, and leaves the Yankees paying for about 4.6 WAR annually. Here's a look at Sabathia's performances over the past three seasons (note: NLRS is strictly over replacement level starters in this case):


2006 3.30 52.4
2007 3.14 69.9
2008 2.91 79.8

Marcels has Sabathia slated for ~61 NLRS next season. CC's coming off of three consecutive increases, suggesting he's probably in the prime of his career. Whether he can actually push that to four is probably unlikely, but if he does play up to Marcels he's still going to be a nice addition to the Yankees staff. Here's a look at his estimated costs even if he starts declining by 0.5 WAR:


Year Mil/WAR WAR $
2009 4.84 6.1 29.92
2010 5.32 5.6 30.19
2011 5.86 5.1 30.29
2012 6.44 4.6 30.02
2013 7.09 4.1 29.47
2014 7.79 3.6 28.44
2015 8.569 3.1 26.96

Or roughly 206 million, and that assumes he declined pretty quickly, 0.3 at a time adds about six million to the total cost. Here's the scary thing: even if Sabathia drops 1 WAR per season, he'd still be worth about 129 million over the next seven seasons. That means if Sabathia loses an arm he'd only be overpaid by ~30ish million, and to the Yankees, who are opening a new park, have their own regional sports network, and have contracts coming off of the books, that's not overpaying by much at all.  

As Dave Cameron says, this appears to be the best buyers market in recent memory, and it appears the Yankees are going to reload their rotation with the likes of Derek Lowe as well. At least this seems more well-guide than their 2004 signings of Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright.