Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMR / RAA | 3B: PMR / RAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA | C: PMR / RAA | P: PMR / RAA |
D Behind P: PMR / RAA
Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.
Along with the position-by-position numbers, David shares how each pitcher was affected by his defense during the season. He follows a very similar methodology, determining the number of outs that should have been converted, and comparing those to the outs that were actually converted.
| Player | Team | IP | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | ERA Diff |
| Fausto Carmona | Cle | 120.67 | 405 | 273 | 288.06 | -15.06 | -14.194251 | 1.06 |
| Adam Eaton | Phi | 107 | 356 | 236 | 248.23 | -12.23 | -11.175789 | 0.94 |
| Darrell Rasner | NYY | 113.33 | 387 | 257 | 269.56 | -12.56 | -11.837967 | 0.94 |
| Andy Pettitte | NYY | 204 | 641 | 420 | 439.26 | -19.26 | -18.152807 | 0.8 |
| Ian Snell | Pit | 164.33 | 522 | 335 | 347.6 | -12.6 | -11.513895 | 0.63 |
| Livan Hernandez | Min | 139.67 | 525 | 339 | 349.78 | -10.78 | -9.850777 | 0.63 |
| Carlos Villanueva | Mil | 108.33 | 320 | 220 | 228.02 | -8.02 | -7.3286857 | 0.61 |
| Garrett Olson | Bal | 132.67 | 451 | 295 | 304.47 | -9.47 | -8.9256013 | 0.61 |
| Tom Gorzelanny | Pit | 105.33 | 332 | 225 | 231.65 | -6.65 | -6.076778 | 0.52 |
| Andrew Miller | Fla | 107.33 | 336 | 216 | 222.12 | -6.12 | -5.5924634 | 0.47 |
| Jonathan Sanchez | SF | 158 | 442 | 297 | 306.08 | -9.08 | -8.297315 | 0.47 |
| Odalis Perez | Was | 159.67 | 507 | 337 | 345.85 | -8.85 | -8.0871407 | 0.46 |
| Mark Buehrle | CWS | 218.67 | 699 | 466 | 477.66 | -11.66 | -10.989705 | 0.45 |
| Cha Seung Baek | SD | 111 | 353 | 238 | 243.4 | -5.4 | -4.9345265 | 0.4 |
| Luke Hochevar | KC | 129 | 430 | 291 | 297.11 | -6.11 | -5.7587565 | 0.4 |
| Barry Zito | SF | 180 | 576 | 393 | 401.59 | -8.59 | -7.8495524 | 0.39 |
| Brett Myers | Phi | 190 | 554 | 379 | 388.08 | -9.08 | -8.297315 | 0.39 |
| Brandon Backe | Hou | 166.67 | 512 | 341 | 348.41 | -7.41 | -6.771267 | 0.37 |
| Brian Burres | Bal | 129.67 | 460 | 309 | 314.46 | -5.46 | -5.1461228 | 0.36 |
| Brian Bannister | KC | 182.67 | 603 | 408 | 415.51 | -7.51 | -7.0782751 | 0.35 |
| Randy Wolf | SD | 119.67 | 348 | 237 | 242.07 | -5.07 | -4.6329721 | 0.35 |
| Kevin Millwood | Tex | 168.67 | 569 | 360 | 366.45 | -6.45 | -6.079211 | 0.32 |
| Mark Hendrickson | Fla | 133.67 | 439 | 302 | 307.04 | -5.04 | -4.6055581 | 0.31 |
| Nick Blackburn | Min | 193.33 | 658 | 445 | 451.38 | -6.38 | -5.8300517 | 0.27 |
| Pedro Martinez | NYM | 109 | 337 | 225 | 228.38 | -3.38 | -3.0886481 | 0.26 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Col | 130 | 361 | 240 | 243.99 | -3.99 | -3.6460668 | 0.25 |
| A.J. Burnett | Tor | 221.33 | 613 | 405 | 411.37 | -6.37 | -6.0038099 | 0.24 |
| John Maine | NYM | 140 | 399 | 286 | 290.11 | -4.11 | -3.755723 | 0.24 |
| Kyle Davies | KC | 113 | 361 | 248 | 251.2 | -3.2 | -3.0160427 | 0.24 |
| Mike Pelfrey | NYM | 200.67 | 652 | 446 | 450.98 | -4.98 | -4.55073 | 0.2 |
| Edinson Volquez | Cin | 196 | 511 | 350 | 354.63 | -4.63 | -4.2308996 | 0.19 |
| James Shields | TB | 215 | 641 | 448 | 452.73 | -4.73 | -4.4580881 | 0.19 |
| Justin Verlander | Det | 201 | 598 | 415 | 419.47 | -4.47 | -4.2130346 | 0.19 |
| Randy Johnson | Ari | 184 | 531 | 359 | 363.22 | -4.22 | -3.8562411 | 0.19 |
| Ricky Nolasco | Fla | 212.33 | 606 | 432 | 435.96 | -3.96 | -3.6186528 | 0.15 |
| Carlos Silva | Sea | 153.33 | 564 | 365 | 367.36 | -2.36 | -2.2243315 | 0.13 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 107.67 | 306 | 204 | 205.65 | -1.65 | -1.507772 | 0.13 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | Atl | 113 | 361 | 241 | 242.79 | -1.79 | -1.6357042 | 0.13 |
| Nate Robertson | Det | 168.67 | 563 | 365 | 367.59 | -2.59 | -2.4411095 | 0.13 |
| Kenny Rogers | Det | 173.67 | 598 | 400 | 402.42 | -2.42 | -2.2808823 | 0.12 |
| Zach Duke | Pit | 185 | 669 | 445 | 447.62 | -2.62 | -2.3941592 | 0.12 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Col | 198.67 | 572 | 395 | 397.49 | -2.49 | -2.275365 | 0.1 |
| Brandon Webb | Ari | 226.67 | 671 | 458 | 460.45 | -2.45 | -2.238813 | 0.09 |
| Ervin Santana | LAA | 219 | 605 | 422 | 424.34 | -2.34 | -2.2054812 | 0.09 |
| Jason Bergmann | Was | 139.67 | 445 | 310 | 311.45 | -1.45 | -1.3250118 | 0.09 |
| Joe Blanton | Oak | 127 | 440 | 303 | 304.31 | -1.31 | -1.2346925 | 0.09 |
| Daniel Cabrera | Bal | 180 | 594 | 409 | 410.64 | -1.64 | -1.5457219 | 0.08 |
| Bronson Arroyo | Cin | 200 | 605 | 408 | 409.76 | -1.76 | -1.6082901 | 0.07 |
| Chris Sampson | Hou | 117.33 | 383 | 267 | 267.83 | -0.83 | -0.758455 | 0.06 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | TB | 193.33 | 632 | 432 | 433.24 | -1.24 | -1.1687165 | 0.05 |
| Tim Redding | Was | 182 | 572 | 397 | 397.98 | -0.98 | -0.8955252 | 0.04 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Hou | 137.33 | 393 | 266 | 266.71 | -0.71 | -0.6487989 | 0.04 |
| Ted Lilly | ChC | 204.67 | 574 | 412 | 412.67 | -0.67 | -0.6122468 | 0.03 |
| Zack Greinke | KC | 202.33 | 587 | 399 | 399.62 | -0.62 | -0.5843583 | 0.03 |
| Cliff Lee | Cle | 223.33 | 670 | 462 | 462.5 | -0.5 | -0.4712567 | 0.02 |
| Chad Billingsley | LAD | 200.67 | 556 | 370 | 370.36 | -0.36 | -0.3289684 | 0.01 |
| Jarrod Washburn | Sea | 153.67 | 512 | 350 | 350.13 | -0.13 | -0.1225267 | 0.01 |
| Mike Mussina | NYY | 200.33 | 613 | 409 | 409.01 | -0.01 | -0.0094251 | 0 |
| Gil Meche | KC | 210.33 | 611 | 420 | 419.79 | 0.21 | 0.1979278 | -0.01 |
| Manny Parra | Mil | 166 | 499 | 322 | 321.73 | 0.27 | 0.24672633 | -0.01 |
| Aaron Laffey | Cle | 93.67 | 316 | 217 | 216.67 | 0.33 | 0.3110294 | -0.03 |
| Boof Bonser | Min | 118.33 | 382 | 249 | 248.24 | 0.76 | 0.71631013 | -0.05 |
| Greg Maddux | SD | 153.33 | 511 | 360 | 359.16 | 0.84 | 0.76759302 | -0.05 |
| Jon Lester | Bos | 210.33 | 632 | 438 | 436.2 | 1.8 | 1.696524 | -0.07 |
| Brad Penny | LAD | 94.67 | 311 | 212 | 211.06 | 0.94 | 0.85897314 | -0.08 |
| Johnny Cueto | Cin | 174 | 500 | 344 | 341.79 | 2.21 | 2.01950067 | -0.1 |
| Tim Lincecum | SF | 227 | 562 | 385 | 382.12 | 2.88 | 2.63174748 | -0.1 |
| Aaron Harang | Cin | 184.33 | 552 | 379 | 376.37 | 2.63 | 2.40329718 | -0.12 |
| Joel Pineiro | StL | 148.67 | 505 | 342 | 339.9 | 2.1 | 1.91898254 | -0.12 |
| Javier Vazquez | CWS | 208.33 | 598 | 405 | 401.92 | 3.08 | 2.90294107 | -0.13 |
| Jose Contreras | CWS | 121 | 402 | 280 | 278.09 | 1.91 | 1.80020047 | -0.13 |
| Gavin Floyd | CWS | 206.33 | 625 | 450 | 446.51 | 3.49 | 3.28937153 | -0.14 |
| Jason Marquis | ChC | 167 | 554 | 390 | 387.25 | 2.75 | 2.51295333 | -0.14 |
| Matt Cain | SF | 217.67 | 630 | 436 | 431.93 | 4.07 | 3.71917092 | -0.15 |
| Jair Jurrjens | Atl | 188.33 | 589 | 401 | 397.07 | 3.93 | 3.59123876 | -0.17 |
| Kevin Correia | SF | 110 | 382 | 248 | 245.75 | 2.25 | 2.05605272 | -0.17 |
| Miguel Batista | Sea | 115 | 379 | 257 | 254.22 | 2.78 | 2.62018707 | -0.21 |
| Braden Looper | StL | 199 | 653 | 453 | 447.51 | 5.49 | 5.01676864 | -0.23 |
| Carlos Zambrano | ChC | 188.67 | 570 | 404 | 398.66 | 5.34 | 4.87969846 | -0.23 |
| Dan Haren | Ari | 216 | 610 | 421 | 414.6 | 6.4 | 5.84832774 | -0.24 |
| Jamie Moyer | Phi | 196.33 | 625 | 437 | 431.36 | 5.64 | 5.15383882 | -0.24 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | 176.67 | 513 | 355 | 350.05 | 4.95 | 4.665441 | -0.24 |
| Todd Wellemeyer | StL | 191.67 | 579 | 419 | 413.37 | 5.63 | 5.14470081 | -0.24 |
| Dana Eveland | Oak | 168 | 519 | 351 | 346.09 | 4.91 | 4.62774047 | -0.25 |
| Jon Garland | LAA | 196.67 | 684 | 462 | 456.1 | 5.9 | 5.56082867 | -0.25 |
| Doug Davis | Ari | 146 | 457 | 303 | 298.15 | 4.85 | 4.43193587 | -0.27 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | LAD | 183.33 | 598 | 418 | 412.03 | 5.97 | 5.45539322 | -0.27 |
| Jeff Suppan | Mil | 177.67 | 589 | 407 | 401.18 | 5.82 | 5.31832304 | -0.27 |
| Kyle Lohse | StL | 200 | 650 | 453 | 446.33 | 6.67 | 6.09505407 | -0.27 |
| Aaron Cook | Col | 211.33 | 725 | 489 | 481.78 | 7.22 | 6.59764474 | -0.28 |
| Edwin Jackson | TB | 183.33 | 582 | 401 | 394.74 | 6.26 | 5.90013347 | -0.29 |
| Felix Hernandez | Sea | 200.67 | 577 | 391 | 384.12 | 6.88 | 6.48449173 | -0.29 |
| Oliver Perez | NYM | 194 | 527 | 380 | 373.11 | 6.89 | 6.29609034 | -0.29 |
| Johan Santana | NYM | 234.33 | 668 | 476 | 467.22 | 8.78 | 8.02317462 | -0.31 |
| Derek Lowe | LAD | 211 | 644 | 453 | 444.85 | 8.15 | 7.44747986 | -0.32 |
| John Danks | CWS | 195 | 569 | 396 | 388.39 | 7.61 | 7.17252647 | -0.33 |
| Micah Owings | Ari | 104.67 | 312 | 220 | 215.84 | 4.16 | 3.80141303 | -0.33 |
| Roy Halladay | Tor | 246 | 713 | 501 | 491.48 | 9.52 | 8.97272693 | -0.33 |
| Scott Baker | Min | 172.33 | 497 | 354 | 347.21 | 6.79 | 6.39966553 | -0.33 |
| Scott Olsen | Fla | 201.67 | 640 | 463 | 454.69 | 8.31 | 7.59368806 | -0.34 |
| Jeff Francis | Col | 143.67 | 469 | 321 | 314.83 | 6.17 | 5.63815347 | -0.35 |
| Matt Garza | TB | 184.67 | 560 | 399 | 391.43 | 7.57 | 7.13482593 | -0.35 |
| Paul Maholm | Pit | 206.33 | 621 | 437 | 428.22 | 8.78 | 8.02317462 | -0.35 |
| Scott Feldman | Tex | 151.33 | 488 | 344 | 337.73 | 6.27 | 5.9095586 | -0.35 |
| Cole Hamels | Phi | 227.33 | 635 | 464 | 453.13 | 10.87 | 9.93301915 | -0.39 |
| David Bush | Mil | 185 | 567 | 422 | 413.33 | 8.67 | 7.92265649 | -0.39 |
| Jake Peavy | SD | 173.67 | 459 | 331 | 322.53 | 8.47 | 7.73989625 | -0.4 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Bal | 190.67 | 587 | 428 | 417.45 | 10.55 | 9.94351567 | -0.47 |
| Josh Beckett | Bos | 174.33 | 492 | 333 | 322.69 | 10.31 | 9.71731247 | -0.5 |
| Vicente Padilla | Tex | 171 | 524 | 356 | 345.93 | 10.07 | 9.49110927 | -0.5 |
| Kevin Slowey | Min | 160.33 | 480 | 340 | 330.37 | 9.63 | 9.0764034 | -0.51 |
| Ben Sheets | Mil | 198.33 | 589 | 417 | 404.45 | 12.55 | 11.4682052 | -0.52 |
| John Lannan | Was | 182 | 560 | 401 | 389.21 | 11.79 | 10.7737163 | -0.53 |
| Jorge Campillo | Atl | 158.67 | 490 | 347 | 336.39 | 10.61 | 9.69543084 | -0.55 |
| Zach Miner | Det | 118 | 385 | 276 | 268.08 | 7.92 | 7.4647056 | -0.57 |
| Adam Wainwright | StL | 132 | 404 | 289 | 279.63 | 9.37 | 8.56231734 | -0.58 |
| Dustin McGowan | Tor | 111.33 | 337 | 228 | 220.26 | 7.74 | 7.2950532 | -0.59 |
| Ryan Dempster | ChC | 206.67 | 572 | 406 | 391.16 | 14.84 | 13.56081 | -0.59 |
| John Lackey | LAA | 163.33 | 469 | 329 | 316.59 | 12.41 | 11.6965905 | -0.64 |
| Shaun Marcum | Tor | 151.33 | 427 | 317 | 305.52 | 11.48 | 10.8200531 | -0.64 |
| Joe Saunders | LAA | 198 | 623 | 445 | 429.72 | 15.28 | 14.4016037 | -0.65 |
| CC Sabathia | Mil | 130.67 | 353 | 246 | 235.49 | 10.51 | 9.60405072 | -0.66 |
| Brian Moehler | Hou | 150 | 509 | 356 | 343.33 | 12.67 | 11.5778613 | -0.69 |
| R.A. Dickey | Sea | 112.33 | 374 | 263 | 253.88 | 9.12 | 8.5957216 | -0.69 |
| Scott Kazmir | TB | 152.33 | 378 | 277 | 264.57 | 12.43 | 11.7154407 | -0.69 |
| Greg Smith | Oak | 190.33 | 578 | 423 | 406.63 | 16.37 | 15.4289433 | -0.73 |
| Glen Perkins | Min | 151 | 520 | 357 | 343.77 | 13.23 | 12.4694514 | -0.74 |
| Armando Galarraga | Det | 178.67 | 525 | 391 | 375.29 | 15.71 | 14.8068845 | -0.75 |
| CC Sabathia | Cle | 122.33 | 334 | 228 | 217.23 | 10.77 | 10.1508686 | -0.75 |
| Paul Byrd | Cle | 131 | 446 | 319 | 307.48 | 11.52 | 10.8577536 | -0.75 |
| Kyle Kendrick | Phi | 155.67 | 560 | 380 | 365.69 | 14.31 | 13.0764953 | -0.76 |
| Roy Oswalt | Hou | 208.67 | 617 | 436 | 416.75 | 19.25 | 17.5906733 | -0.76 |
| Tim Hudson | Atl | 142 | 435 | 317 | 302.69 | 14.31 | 13.0764953 | -0.83 |
| Jeremy Sowers | Cle | 121 | 409 | 279 | 266.73 | 12.27 | 11.5646386 | -0.86 |
| Justin Duchscherer | Oak | 141.67 | 409 | 308 | 292.97 | 15.03 | 14.1659754 | -0.9 |
| Ryan Rowland-Smith | Sea | 118.33 | 366 | 262 | 249.06 | 12.94 | 12.1961225 | -0.93 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | Bos | 167.67 | 449 | 327 | 306.07 | 20.93 | 19.7268041 | -1.06 |
| Tim Wakefield | Bos | 181 | 539 | 405 | 382.33 | 22.67 | 21.3667773 | -1.06 |
| Jesse Litsch | Tor | 176 | 569 | 407 | 382.14 | 24.86 | 23.4308815 | -1.2 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | 95 | 306 | 215 | 200.92 | 14.08 | 13.2705877 | -1.26 |
There's a lot of great information here that's just begging for additional analysis. For example, this data might show which pitchers give up the easiest balls in play to field. Or we might look at why a defense performs so much differently for a given pitcher as opposed to his teammates (Chien-Ming Wang vs. Andy Pettite and Darrell Rasner for example). I'm not going to cover those today, and just stick with the same high-level thoughts as the rest of the series.
One additional note; you'll see I went away from the rate stats per 4000 BIP and looking at the runs above average, and added a column describing the effect on ERA (more accurately, RA). I can make those other numbers available if anyone wants, but I find that scaling results for pitchers to the common ERA scale makes the results more easily accessible. A positive number means that the pitchers actual ERA was higher than expected, while a negative indicates the defense helped the pitcher do better than expected.
Fausto Carmona was definitely victimized by his defense this season. He would have had been better than average has his defense performed as expected. Instead he ended up with a 5.44 ERA and an 82 ERA+. I'd expect some bounceback next year from Fausto. On the other end of the scale, the Yankees defense is much better when Chien-Ming Wang is pitching than anyone else. This pattern has repeated itself for a few years now. Boston's defense really helped out Wakefield and Dice-K. That probably helps to explain why Dice-K was able to do so much better than his peripherals would suggest.