Colin Wyers has posted a set of Marcel projections, and well, I just had to slice and dice them. Marcel is Tom Tango's extremely basic forecasting system named after the monkey from Friends. It sets the bar for what other, more professional forecasting systems should strive to surpass. The system consists of:
- A weighted average of the past three seasons stats.
- An age adjustment.
- Some regression.
That's it. No park-adjustments. No similarity scores. No DIPS analysis. No lineup analysis. No nothing. Even so, Marcel doesn't finish far behind more advanced systems like CHONE and PECOTA in year-end analyses.
Now on to the fun. Here's how Colin's Marcels foresee the 2009 MLB leader boards in a number of popular hitting and pitching categories:
| Player | HR |
| Howard | 37 |
| Dunn | 30 |
| Arod | 29 |
| Pujols | 29 |
| Fielder | 29 |
| Braun | 29 |
| Pena | 28 |
| Dye | 27 |
| Thome | 27 |
| Teixeira | 26 |
| Delgado | 26 |
| Manny | 26 |
| Player | SB |
| Reyes | 47 |
| Taveras | 35 |
| HanRam | 32 |
| Ellsbury | 32 |
| Bourne | 31 |
| Figgins | 31 |
| Pierre | 31 |
| Roberts | 29 |
| Crawford | 29 |
| Suzuki | 28 |
| Player | wOBA |
| Pujols | .438 |
| Jones | .412 |
| Ortiz | .407 |
| Arod | .407 |
| Holliday | .403 |
| Manny | .401 |
| Wright | .400 |
| Cabrera | .400 |
| Berkman | .399 |
| Howard | .396 |
| Player | PA |
| Reyes | 581 |
| Suzuki | 574 |
| Sizemore | 572 |
| Wright | 567 |
| Cabrera | 565 |
| Pedroia | 563 |
| Morneau | 556 |
| Young | 554 |
| Beltran | 553 |
| Utley | 553 |
| Iwamura | 553 |
| Ibanez | 553 |
| Player | AVG |
| Pujos | .342 |
| Jones | .322 |
| Holliday | .320 |
| Mauer | .320 |
| Cabrera | .319 |
| Guerrero | .316 |
| Suzuki | .315 |
| Wright | .312 |
| Ordonez | .311 |
| HanRam | .311 |
| Pedroia | .311 |
| Player | OBP |
| Bonds | .470 |
| Pujols | .467 |
| Jones | .428 |
| Helton | .426 |
| Manny | .419 |
| Mauer | .419 |
| Njohnson | .418 |
| Berkman | .417 |
| Ortiz | .413 |
| Cabrera | .410 |
| Player | SLG |
| Pujols | .625 |
| Howard | .582 |
| Ortiz | .572 |
| Arod | .564 |
| Braun | .562 |
| Cabrera | .555 |
| Holliday | .552 |
| Jones | .551 |
| Manny | .548 |
| Fielder | .544 |
| Player | ISO |
| Howard | .301 |
| Pujols | .283 |
| Ortiz | .279 |
| Dunn | .268 |
| Arod | .265 |
| Braun | .261 |
| Pena | .258 |
| Fielder | .255 |
| Soriano | .249 |
| Player | RAA |
| Pujols | 33 |
| Cabrera | 18 |
| Howard | 18 |
| Holliday | 18 |
| Utley | 17 |
| Arod | 17 |
| HanRam | 17 |
| Jones | 16 |
| Wright | 16 |
| Fielder | 15 |
| Manny | 15 |
| Braun | 15 |
| Pitcher | IP |
| Sabathia | 187 |
| Halladay | 182 |
| Johan | 177 |
| Hamels | 174 |
| Webb | 173 |
| Lincecum | 172 |
| Lee | 172 |
| Burnett | 170 |
| Ervin | 170 |
| Pitcher | ERA |
| Lincecum | 3.61 |
| Harden | 3.70 |
| Halladay | 3.78 |
| Sabathia | 3.79 |
| Peavy | 3.80 |
| Webb | 3.81 |
| Johan | 3.82 |
| Hamels | 3.91 |
| Cain | 3.94 |
| Haren | 3.97 |
| Pitcher | SO |
| Lincecum | 165 |
| Sabathia | 160 |
| Johan | 154 |
| Burnett | 150 |
| Hamels | 148 |
| Ervin | 141 |
| Cain | 139 |
| Haren | 139 |
| Vazquez | 139 |
| Billingsley | 137 |