Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMR / RAA | 3B: PMR / RAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA | C: PMR / RAA | P: PMR / RAA
Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.
This entry, we look at pitchers - first on the team level and then for individuals.
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 | RAA / 4000 |
| Blue Jays | 4215 | 181 | 161.32 | 19.68 | 14.76 | 14.01 | 14.1 |
| Tigers | 4536 | 187 | 171.99 | 15.01 | 11.2575 | 9.93 | 10.02 |
| Padres | 4419 | 217 | 202.55 | 14.45 | 10.8375 | 9.81 | 9.9 |
| Royals | 4413 | 170 | 161.9 | 8.1 | 6.075 | 5.51 | 5.6 |
| Dodgers | 4265 | 217 | 209.44 | 7.56 | 5.67 | 5.32 | 5.41 |
| Mets | 4335 | 200 | 192.92 | 7.08 | 5.31 | 4.9 | 4.99 |
| Nationals | 4417 | 193 | 186.24 | 6.76 | 5.07 | 4.59 | 4.68 |
| Mariners | 4512 | 161 | 154.23 | 6.77 | 5.0775 | 4.5 | 4.59 |
| Twins | 4607 | 190 | 183.22 | 6.78 | 5.085 | 4.42 | 4.51 |
| Phillies | 4396 | 198 | 193.35 | 4.65 | 3.4875 | 3.17 | 3.26 |
| Cubs | 4156 | 179 | 174.74 | 4.26 | 3.195 | 3.08 | 3.17 |
| Rockies | 4535 | 204 | 201.22 | 2.78 | 2.085 | 1.84 | 1.93 |
| Braves | 4383 | 213 | 211.93 | 1.07 | 0.8025 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| Cardinals | 4597 | 205 | 203.96 | 1.04 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Indians | 4513 | 169 | 168.95 | 0.05 | 0.0375 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Astros | 4292 | 159 | 160.96 | -1.96 | -1.47 | -1.37 | -1.28 |
| Marlins | 4338 | 162 | 164.14 | -2.14 | -1.605 | -1.48 | -1.39 |
| Red Sox | 4232 | 154 | 156.88 | -2.88 | -2.16 | -2.04 | -1.95 |
| Diamondbacks | 4224 | 193 | 196.62 | -3.62 | -2.715 | -2.57 | -2.48 |
| Pirates | 4683 | 211 | 215.78 | -4.78 | -3.585 | -3.06 | -2.97 |
| White Sox | 4409 | 190 | 194.51 | -4.51 | -3.3825 | -3.07 | -2.98 |
| Rangers | 4667 | 178 | 184.54 | -6.54 | -4.905 | -4.2 | -4.11 |
| Angels | 4374 | 148 | 154.21 | -6.21 | -4.6575 | -4.26 | -4.17 |
| Orioles | 4540 | 152 | 158.73 | -6.73 | -5.0475 | -4.45 | -4.36 |
| Reds | 4299 | 174 | 181.34 | -7.34 | -5.505 | -5.12 | -5.03 |
| Athletics | 4285 | 142 | 149.52 | -7.52 | -5.64 | -5.26 | -5.17 |
| Yankees | 4349 | 186 | 194.41 | -8.41 | -6.3075 | -5.8 | -5.71 |
| Rays | 4264 | 114 | 124.63 | -10.63 | -7.9725 | -7.48 | -7.39 |
| Giants | 4232 | 142 | 156.07 | -14.07 | -10.5525 | -9.97 | -9.88 |
| Brewers | 4354 | 183 | 205.85 | -22.85 | -17.1375 | -15.74 | -15.65 |
| Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 |
RAA / 4000 |
| Greg Maddux | 649 | 59 | 39.59 | 19.41 | 14.5575 | 89.72 | 89.81 |
| Kenny Rogers | 598 | 56 | 38.39 | 17.61 | 13.2075 | 88.34 | 88.43 |
| Jesse Litsch | 569 | 39 | 24.2 | 14.8 | 11.1 | 78.03 | 78.12 |
| Felix Hernandez | 577 | 32 | 24.02 | 7.98 | 5.985 | 41.49 | 41.58 |
| Livan Hernandez | 674 | 31 | 22.4 | 8.6 | 6.45 | 38.28 | 38.37 |
| Javier Vazquez | 598 | 29 | 21.39 | 7.61 | 5.7075 | 38.18 | 38.27 |
| Kyle Kendrick | 560 | 32 | 26.17 | 5.83 | 4.3725 | 31.23 | 31.32 |
| Jon Garland | 684 | 31 | 24.42 | 6.58 | 4.935 | 28.86 | 28.95 |
| Gil Meche | 611 | 28 | 22.5 | 5.5 | 4.125 | 27 | 27.09 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 587 | 23 | 17.74 | 5.26 | 3.945 | 26.88 | 26.97 |
| Jason Marquis | 554 | 35 | 30.06 | 4.94 | 3.705 | 26.75 | 26.84 |
| Brandon Webb | 671 | 54 | 48.1 | 5.9 | 4.425 | 26.38 | 26.47 |
| Ryan Dempster | 572 | 36 | 31.12 | 4.88 | 3.66 | 25.59 | 25.68 |
| Cole Hamels | 635 | 35 | 29.59 | 5.41 | 4.0575 | 25.56 | 25.65 |
| Joel Pineiro | 505 | 28 | 23.71 | 4.29 | 3.2175 | 25.49 | 25.58 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 605 | 32 | 26.95 | 5.05 | 3.7875 | 25.04 | 25.13 |
| Justin Verlander | 598 | 23 | 18.21 | 4.79 | 3.5925 | 24.03 | 24.12 |
| Zack Greinke | 587 | 26 | 21.34 | 4.66 | 3.495 | 23.82 | 23.91 |
| Joe Saunders | 623 | 31 | 27.14 | 3.86 | 2.895 | 18.59 | 18.68 |
| Roy Oswalt | 617 | 31 | 27.46 | 3.54 | 2.655 | 17.21 | 17.3 |
| Tim Redding | 572 | 22 | 18.86 | 3.14 | 2.355 | 16.47 | 16.56 |
| Glen Perkins | 520 | 23 | 20.25 | 2.75 | 2.0625 | 15.87 | 15.96 |
| Aaron Cook | 725 | 44 | 40.31 | 3.69 | 2.7675 | 15.27 | 15.36 |
| Tim Wakefield | 539 | 16 | 13.55 | 2.45 | 1.8375 | 13.64 | 13.73 |
| Vicente Padilla | 524 | 20 | 17.7 | 2.3 | 1.725 | 13.17 | 13.26 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 589 | 37 | 34.69 | 2.31 | 1.7325 | 11.77 | 11.86 |
| Jeff Suppan | 589 | 28 | 25.91 | 2.09 | 1.5675 | 10.65 | 10.74 |
| Zach Duke | 669 | 37 | 35.21 | 1.79 | 1.3425 | 8.03 | 8.12 |
| Gavin Floyd | 625 | 26 | 24.44 | 1.56 | 1.17 | 7.49 | 7.58 |
| Scott Olsen | 640 | 20 | 18.55 | 1.45 | 1.0875 | 6.8 | 6.89 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 598 | 39 | 37.92 | 1.08 | 0.81 | 5.42 | 5.51 |
| Paul Maholm | 621 | 31 | 29.9 | 1.1 | 0.825 | 5.31 | 5.4 |
| Oliver Perez | 527 | 17 | 16.28 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 4.1 | 4.19 |
| Matt Cain | 630 | 27 | 26.14 | 0.86 | 0.645 | 4.1 | 4.19 |
| Barry Zito | 576 | 20 | 19.28 | 0.72 | 0.54 | 3.75 | 3.84 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | 632 | 20 | 19.44 | 0.56 | 0.42 | 2.66 | 2.75 |
| Jon Lester | 632 | 21 | 20.46 | 0.54 | 0.405 | 2.56 | 2.65 |
| Kevin Millwood | 569 | 25 | 24.56 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 2.32 | 2.41 |
| Greg Smith | 578 | 16 | 15.75 | 0.25 | 0.1875 | 1.3 | 1.39 |
| Brett Myers | 554 | 23 | 22.85 | 0.15 | 0.1125 | 0.81 | 0.9 |
| Ted Lilly | 574 | 15 | 15.03 | -0.03 | -0.0225 | -0.16 | -0.07 |
| Brian Bannister | 603 | 30 | 30.11 | -0.11 | -0.0825 | -0.55 | -0.46 |
| Jamie Moyer | 625 | 20 | 20.19 | -0.19 | -0.1425 | -0.91 | -0.82 |
| John Danks | 569 | 24 | 24.25 | -0.25 | -0.1875 | -1.32 | -1.23 |
| Jarrod Washburn | 512 | 20 | 20.39 | -0.39 | -0.2925 | -2.29 | -2.2 |
| Paul Byrd | 608 | 17 | 17.52 | -0.52 | -0.39 | -2.57 | -2.48 |
| Edinson Volquez | 511 | 24 | 24.49 | -0.49 | -0.3675 | -2.88 | -2.79 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 652 | 29 | 29.63 | -0.63 | -0.4725 | -2.9 | -2.81 |
| CC Sabathia | 687 | 27 | 27.67 | -0.67 | -0.5025 | -2.93 | -2.84 |
| Kyle Lohse | 650 | 30 | 30.67 | -0.67 | -0.5025 | -3.09 | -3 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 572 | 35 | 35.69 | -0.69 | -0.5175 | -3.62 | -3.53 |
| Roy Halladay | 713 | 31 | 32.28 | -1.28 | -0.96 | -5.39 | -5.3 |
| Dana Eveland | 519 | 17 | 17.94 | -0.94 | -0.705 | -5.43 | -5.34 |
| Chad Billingsley | 556 | 21 | 22.07 | -1.07 | -0.8025 | -5.77 | -5.68 |
| Joe Blanton | 652 | 25 | 26.28 | -1.28 | -0.96 | -5.89 | -5.8 |
| Armando Galarraga | 525 | 13 | 14.04 | -1.04 | -0.78 | -5.94 | -5.85 |
| Jered Weaver | 513 | 10 | 11.02 | -1.02 | -0.765 | -5.96 | -5.87 |
| Odalis Perez | 507 | 23 | 24.23 | -1.23 | -0.9225 | -7.28 | -7.19 |
| Derek Lowe | 644 | 39 | 40.83 | -1.83 | -1.3725 | -8.52 | -8.43 |
| John Lannan | 560 | 29 | 30.68 | -1.68 | -1.26 | -9 | -8.91 |
| Todd Wellemeyer | 579 | 15 | 16.95 | -1.95 | -1.4625 | -10.1 | -10.01 |
| Brandon Backe | 512 | 16 | 18.01 | -2.01 | -1.5075 | -11.78 | -11.69 |
| Johan Santana | 668 | 30 | 32.68 | -2.68 | -2.01 | -12.04 | -11.95 |
| Mike Mussina | 613 | 28 | 30.47 | -2.47 | -1.8525 | -12.09 | -12 |
| Edwin Jackson | 582 | 12 | 14.35 | -2.35 | -1.7625 | -12.11 | -12.02 |
| Ian Snell | 522 | 21 | 23.11 | -2.11 | -1.5825 | -12.13 | -12.04 |
| Carlos Silva | 564 | 14 | 16.4 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -12.77 | -12.68 |
| James Shields | 641 | 19 | 21.96 | -2.96 | -2.22 | -13.85 | -13.76 |
| Matt Garza | 560 | 15 | 17.82 | -2.82 | -2.115 | -15.11 | -15.02 |
| Nick Blackburn | 658 | 24 | 27.47 | -3.47 | -2.6025 | -15.82 | -15.73 |
| Mark Buehrle | 699 | 27 | 31.03 | -4.03 | -3.0225 | -17.3 | -17.21 |
| Carlos Zambrano | 570 | 23 | 26.3 | -3.3 | -2.475 | -17.37 | -17.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | 613 | 24 | 27.68 | -3.68 | -2.76 | -18.01 | -17.92 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 606 | 17 | 21.08 | -4.08 | -3.06 | -20.2 | -20.11 |
| Ervin Santana | 605 | 18 | 22.09 | -4.09 | -3.0675 | -20.28 | -20.19 |
| Dan Haren | 610 | 24 | 28.16 | -4.16 | -3.12 | -20.46 | -20.37 |
| Brian Moehler | 509 | 12 | 15.68 | -3.68 | -2.76 | -21.69 | -21.6 |
| Johnny Cueto | 500 | 18 | 21.67 | -3.67 | -2.7525 | -22.02 | -21.93 |
| Tim Lincecum | 562 | 17 | 21.44 | -4.44 | -3.33 | -23.7 | -23.61 |
| Aaron Harang | 552 | 13 | 17.37 | -4.37 | -3.2775 | -23.75 | -23.66 |
| Braden Looper | 653 | 20 | 25.71 | -5.71 | -4.2825 | -26.23 | -26.14 |
| Nate Robertson | 563 | 20 | 24.99 | -4.99 | -3.7425 | -26.59 | -26.5 |
| Randy Johnson | 531 | 12 | 16.86 | -4.86 | -3.645 | -27.46 | -27.37 |
| Randy Wolf | 557 | 25 | 31.51 | -6.51 | -4.8825 | -35.06 | -34.97 |
| David Bush | 567 | 18 | 24.87 | -6.87 | -5.1525 | -36.35 | -36.26 |
| Daniel Cabrera | 594 | 11 | 18.98 | -7.98 | -5.985 | -40.3 | -40.21 |
| Andy Pettitte | 641 | 22 | 30.94 | -8.94 | -6.705 | -41.84 | -41.75 |
| Cliff Lee | 670 | 17 | 28.39 | -11.39 | -8.5425 | -51 | -50.91 |
| Ben Sheets | 589 | 14 | 24.34 | -10.34 | -7.755 | -52.67 | -52.58 |
Of course these sample sizes are so small as to be meaningless. And don't get too caught up in the runs/4000 numbers, since pitchers clearly aren't out there every day of the season.
Here's where the Blue Jays gain a lot of their defensive advantage - from the pitchers themselves. And the Brewers have a bunch of pretty horrendous fielding pitchers - over 5 runs worse than the next lowest team.
No real suprises in the individual ratings. Maddux and Rogers are generally considered some of the better fielding pitchers. I'm a little surprised Livan Hernandez is that highly rated since he's put on some weight (unless he's dropped it the last few years).
Towards the bottom of the list, Mr. AL Cy Young might have been even better had he fielded his position better. To a lesser extent the same is true for the NL winner.