Like I did with the NL MVP Award, I want to take a look at a few different player rating systems and a couple different voting groups. First up, here's a look at a system that includes clutch performance via Win Probability Added. Position adjustments and fielding numbers are taken from Justin's stats and the conversion to replacement level is done by pro-rating 2.5 WAR per 700 PAs to actual playing time. The following is not a complete list by any means, but includes every player who either received a vote from the BBWAA, ranked in the top ten in WPA, or ranked in the top ten in Justin's total value metric.
| Player | WPA | PosW | FieldW | RepW | Tot WAR |
| Joe Mauer | 4.9 | 1.0 | .6 | 2.3 | 8.8 |
| Grady Sizemore | 3.5 | .2 | .9 | 2.7 | 7.2 |
| Dustin L Pedroia | 3.3 | .2 | .8 | 2.6 | 6.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | 4.1 | -.4 | .6 | 1.6 | 5.9 |
| Carlos Pena | 4.2 | -1.0 | .4 | 2.2 | 5.8 |
| Josh H Hamilton | 2.8 | .0 | .0 | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| Brian Roberts | 1.9 | .2 | .6 | 2.5 | 5.2 |
| Curtis Granderson | 2.3 | .2 | .2 | 2.2 | 4.9 |
| David DeJesus | 2.6 | -.2 | .2 | 2.1 | 4.7 |
| B.J. Upton | 2.2 | .2 | -.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 |
| Carlos J Quentin | 3.9 | -.6 | -.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 |
| Justin Morneau | 3.9 | -1.1 | -.9 | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| Kevin E Youkilis | 2.3 | -.8 | .4 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 3.0 | -1.0 | -.6 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Jack Cust | 2.6 | -.3 | -.7 | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.0 | .2 | .7 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Johnny Damon | 1.7 | -.3 | -.1 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .5 | .2 | .7 | 2.1 | 3.5 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | .9 | -.3 | .2 | 2.7 | 3.4 |
| Adrian Beltre | -1.5 | .2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| Nick Markakis | 1.7 | -.7 | -.4 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| Raul Ibanez | 2.8 | -.7 | -1.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Ian M Kinsler | 1.2 | .2 | -.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| Aubrey Huff | 1.7 | -1.4 | .1 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Milton Bradley | 2.1 | -1.0 | -.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Bobby Abreu | 2.7 | -.6 | -2.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Jason A Bartlett | -1.4 | .5 | .0 | 1.8 | .9 |
| Jermaine Dye | -.3 | -.6 | -.7 | 2.3 | .7 |
Some quick comments:
- If you think Justin Morneau was clutch, check out Joe Mauer. Sheesh.
- Carlos Pena was the Rays' MVP, not Jason Bartlett.
- Of all the players to switch teams mid-season, Mark Teixeira has the best argument for winning a league-only award, although the Angels really didn't need his performance.
- Josh Hamilton was the most valuable Ranger, ahead of Milton Bradley and Ian Kinsler.
- Adrian Beltre: underrated bat, grossly underrated glove, and really really unclutch in 2008. Not that the last one means anything going forward.
- Curtis Granderson: still underrated.
- RJ, you may continue to pimp BJ Upton.
- For those who must evaluate Francisco Rodriguez, his value is basically equal to his WPA, since reliever replacement-level ERA is just about league-average ERA. Maybe you can tack on a quarter run per nine innings (a quarter win) to his 3.33 WPA for a total of 3.6 WAR, which leaves him well out of the MVP race. Same goes for Brad Lidge in the NL.
On to the SBNation blogger vote:
| American League | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Pedroia | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | - | - | 2 | - | - | 155 |
| Joe Mauer | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | 109 |
| Grady Sizemore | 5 | 2 | - | - | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | 2 | - | 106 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 2 | - | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | - | 1 | 2 | - | 98 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 2 | 1 | 4 | - | 4 | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | 96 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 73 |
| Justin Morneau | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | - | - | - | 2 | 63 |
| Carlos Quentin | - | - | 2 | 2 | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - | 58 |
| Carlos Pena | - | 1 | - | - | - | 3 | 1 | 1 | - | - | 31 |
| Cliff Lee | - | 1 | - | - | 2 | - | - | 1 | - | - | 24 |
| Milton Bradley | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Aubrey Huff | - | - | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 17 |
| Roy Halladay | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | - | 13 |
| Miguel Cabrera | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | 12 |
| Evan Longoria | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| B. J. Upton | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9 |
| Ian Kinsler | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 2 | - | 8 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | - | 5 |
| Alexei Ramirez | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 4 |
| Brian Roberts | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 4 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 4 |
| Jim Thome | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 4 |
| Nick Markakis | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 2 |
| Joe Nathan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 |
| Jermaine Dye | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 |
Nothing too crazy there, except for the BJ Upton vote and some other singular down-ballot votes. I would have liked to see Brian Roberts higher, however. And congrats to the crew for mostly ignoring Francisco Rodriguez.
Let's look at the number of ballots on which each player appeared:
17 Dustin Pedroia
15 Kevin Youkilis
14 Joe Mauer
13 Alex Rodriguez
12 Grady Sizemore
12 Carlos Quentin
11 Josh Hamilton
9 Justin Morneau
8 Milton Bradley
6 Carlos Pena
5 Aubrey Huff
That's a little more frustrating. Two voters left off Youkilis, three left off Mauer, and five left off Grady Sizemore? Yikes.
How about top fives?
15 Dustin Pedroia
11 Joe Mauer
11 Alex Rodriguez
8 Kevin Youkilis
8 Grady Sizemore
8 Josh Hamilton
6 Justin Morneau
Let's take a look at the vote most people will be talking about, the BBWAA 2008 AL MVP Award:
| Player | Club | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | Points |
| Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox | 16 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 317 |
| Justin Morneau | Minnesota Twins | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 257 |
| Kevin Youkilis | Boston Red Sox | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | — | — | 201 |
| Joe Mauer | Minnesota Twins | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | 188 |
| Carlos Quentin | Chicago White Sox | — | 1 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | 1 | 1 | 160 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2 | 143 |
| Josh Hamilton | Texas Rangers | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 112 |
| Alex Rodriguez | New York Yankees | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 45 |
| Carlos Pena | Tampa Bay Rays | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 44 |
| Grady Sizemore | Cleveland Indians | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 42 |
| Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Rays | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| Cliff Lee | Cleveland Indians | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | 24 |
| Miguel Cabrera | Detroit Tigers | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | Los Angeles Angels | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 16 |
| Jermaine Dye | Chicago White Sox | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 14 |
| Aubrey Huff | Baltimore Orioles | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| Milton Bradley | Texas Rangers | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 9 |
| Jason Bartlett | Tampa Bay Rays | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 |
| Mike Mussina | New York Yankees | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3 |
| Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
| Ian Kinsler | Texas Rangers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle Mariners | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Teixeira | Los Angeles Angels | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 |
Oh, Jason Bartlett, how silly. I obviously think the Morneau second-place finish is dumb, too but the good stuff is in the total ballots:
28 Justin Morneau
28 Kevin Youkilis
27 Dustin Pedroia
27 Joe Mauer
26 Carlos Quentin
23 Josh Hamilton
21 Francisco Rodriguez
14 Grady Sizemore
11 Alex Rodriguez
11 Evan Longoria
10 Carlos Pena
Somebody didn't vote for the overall winner? Seriously? And someone left Joe Mauer off their ballot? Crazy! On the other hand, I'd like to thank the two people who showed some rationality (hopefully) in leaving Carlos Quentin off their ballot. And the seven who ignored Francisco Rodriguez's saves record, too. As for Sizemore making the cut on only 50% of the ballots, ugh...
Top fives? Nothing all that interesting:
27 Dustin Pedroia
23 Justin Morneau
19 Kevin Youkilis
14 Joe Mauer
13 Carlos Quentin
10 Francisco Rodriguez
4 Josh Hamilton
1 Carlos Pena
1 Cliff Lee
Finally, let's take a look at a non-clutch metric, combining Justin's total value with a tRA/xIP system using data from statcorner.com -- no relievers included.
RAR Player
80 Cliff Lee
76 Roy Halladay
76 Grady Sizemore
69 Alex Rodriguez
67 Ervin Santana
62 Javier Vazquez
61 Dustin L Pedroia
61 Joe Mauer
60 AJ Burnett
59 Brian Roberts
55 Zach Greinke
53 James Shields
53 Adrian Beltre
51 Curtis Granderson
51 Josh H Hamilton
51 Jon Lester
51 Mark Buehrle
51 Josh Beckett
50 Andy Sonnanstine
50 Kevin E Youkilis
48 Gil Meche
48 John Danks
48 Nick Markakis
46 Evan Longoria
What's surprising to me is how many starters deserve MVP credit. My calculation is simply (5.75 - tRA +.35) / 9 * xIP, where the .35 term is to put tRA on the ERA scale. Combining this list with the first one using WPA, it appears Cliff Lee, Joe Mauer, Grady Sizemore, Roy Halladay, and Dustin Pedroia are the five most realistic MVP choices. I'd go (and I've moved into subjective mode here) Mauer, Sizemore, Halladay, Lee, and Pedroia. Of course, we should be celebrating them all.