This afternoon, either Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard will win the National League MVP Award, resulting in one of two memes spreading throughout the blogosphere:
- Hey, look, the BBWAA got it right!
- Hey, look, the BBWAA got it wrong, yet again!
Either way, Howard's going to finish way too high. But, since critiquing the writers has gotten a bit old and I hate to give their award more publicity than it deserves, I want to present some other views on the NL MVP.
First, from an article I wrote in September, is the a list of the top NL MVP candidates using WPA and Justin's defensive stats. Surprisingly, Berkman's clutchiness puts him ahead of Albert Pujols. If we limit the winner to guys from playoff teams, Carlos Beltran is your man. You'll have to click through to see where Ryan Howard ranks, because, well, he's not in the top 25.
| NL Rank | Player | WPA | (WPA/LI) | rep | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lance Berkman | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 8.6 |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | 5.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 7.9 |
| 3 | Carlos Beltran | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 7.1 |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 6.8 |
| 5 | Matt Holliday | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 6.7 |
| 6 | Chipper Jones | 3.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 |
| 7 | David Wright | 3.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 5.7 |
| 8 | Pat Burrell | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 5.2 |
| 9 | Carlos Lee | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | -1.2 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Chase Utley | 0.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.8 |
| 11 | Aramis Ramirez | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 4.7 |
| 12 | Dan Uggla | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 4.7 |
| 13 | J.J. Hardy | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4.6 |
| 14 | Cody Ross | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| 15 | Ryan Braun | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 4.5 |
| 16 | Chris Iannetta | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 4.4 |
| 17 | Nate McLouth | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.3 | 4.3 |
| 18 | Russell Martin | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| 19 | Jason Bay | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | -1.0 | 4.2 |
| 20 | Brian Giles | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 4.2 |
| 21 | Andre Ethier | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 4.1 |
| 22 | Adrian Gonzalez | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 4.0 |
| 23 | Randy Winn | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.9 |
| 24 | Mark Teixeira | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| 25 | Jayson Werth | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 3.6 |
Next let's take a look at what SBNation bloggers thought of the NL MVP race:
| National League | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 13 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 218 |
| Lance Berkman | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 113 |
| Hanley Ramirez | - | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 86 |
| David Wright | - | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | - | 1 | 95 |
| Chipper Jones | - | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | - | - | - | - | 85 |
| Ryan Howard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | 71 |
| Chase Utley | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | - | 2 | 1 | 71 |
| Ryan Braun | - | - | 1 | 3 | - | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 51 |
| Carlos Beltran | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36 |
| Manny Ramirez | - | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | 27 |
| Matt Holliday | - | - | - | - | 1 | 2 | - | - | 4 | - | 24 |
| CC Sabathia | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | 23 |
| Carlos Delgado | - | - | - | - | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | - | 21 |
| Aramis Ramirez | - | - | - | - | 2 | 1 | - | - | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| Ryan Ludwick | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Jose Reyes | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 2 | 1 | - | - | 8 |
| Brad Lidge | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 |
| Carlos Lee | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | 6 |
| Pat Burrell | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 1 | 4 |
| Brian McCann | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 1 | 4 |
| Prince Fielder | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 1 | 4 |
| Stephen Drew | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | 3 |
| Geovany Soto | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 2 |
| Tim Lincecum | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 2 |
| Brian Giles | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | 1 |
No major complaints right off the bat. But one thing I like to do is see how many ballots each player appeared on. Here's everyone to appear on at least five ballots, sorted by number of total ballots:
17 Albert Pujols
17 Lance Berkman
16 David Wright
14 Chase Utley
13 Hanley Ramirez
13 Chipper Jones
11 Ryan Braun
8 Ryan Howard
8 Carlos Beltran
8 Ryan Ludwick
7 Matt Holliday
6 Aramis Ramirez
5 Manny Ramirez
5 Carlos Delgado
To me, it's shocking that someone would leave Wright, Utley, Hanley, or Chipper off their ballot, and at least three bloggers left the players other than Wright off their ballots. Crazy.
How about the number of times each player appeared in the top five on a ballot?
17 Albert Pujols
11 Lance Berkman
10 Hanley Ramirez
8 Chipper Jones
7 David Wright
7 Chase Utley
6 Ryan Howard
And how about the number of top three ballots?
17 Albert Pujols
6 Lance Berkman
5 Hanley Ramirez
5 Ryan Howard
4 Chipper Jones
4 David Wright
3 Carlos Beltran
2 Chase Utley
2 CC Sabathia
1 Ryan Braun
1 Manny Ramirez
This demonstrates some obvious trends. Ryan Howard mostly received high-ballot votes or no votes. Same for Hanley Ramirez, but to a lesser extent. David Wright tended to appear on a lot of ballots, but nobody really placed him all that high.
Finally, let's take a look at the Internet Baseball Awards, run by Baseball Prospectus. The top ten finishers look like this, ranked by weighted point total:
1 Albert Pujols
2 Hanley Ramirez
3 Lance Berkman
4 Chase Utley
5 David Wright
6 Chipper Jones
7 Ryan Howard
8 Manny Ramirez
9 Tim Lincecum
10 Ryan Braun
But things are slightly different when looking at total ballots:
1406 Albert Pujols
1129 Hanley Ramirez
1024 Lance Berkman
952 David Wright
927 Chase Utley
815 Chipper Jones
557 Ryan Howard
543 Manny Ramirez
517 Tim Lincecum
Once again, David Wright was listed on a lot of ballots, but lower than other players who didn't appear as often. Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard were on the opposite side of the coin, not appearing as much (relatively), but ranking higher when they did appear. It's also interesting that Hanley Ramirez finished higher in the IBA vote than the SBNation blogger vote. And Carlos Beltran got zero love from the IBA. Personally, I side with the SBN bloggers on both those issues.
I know I said "finally" when introducing the IBA awards, but here's one last analysis. I'm taking Justin's final 2008 numbers and combining it with starters' value according to tRA and xIP:
RAR Player
98 Albert Pujols
81 Chipper Jones
79 Hanley Ramirez
76 Chase Utley
74 Lance Berkman
71 Tim Lincecum
68 Brandon Webb
67 David A Wright
66 Carlos Beltran
62 Dan Haren
57 Derek Lowe
56 Brian Giles
54 Matt T Holliday
52 Jose Reyes
51 Randy Johnson
51 Cole Hamels
51 Ryan Ludwick
50 Brian M McCann
50 Johan Santana
50 Ryan Dempster
49 Ben Sheets
48 Jimmy Rollins
48 CC Sabathia
45 Ryan J Braun
45 Dan C Uggla
My predictions of how that list will compare to the BBWAA ranking:
- Chipper and Utley will finish lower.
- Hanley will finish second (or third behind Howard).
- Beltran won't sniff the top ten.
- Giles won't sniff more than a couple ballots.
- The starters, as a whole, won't receive nearly as much respect. Sabathia will probably finish the highest, with Lincecum perhaps finishing in the top ten.