Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMR / RAA | 3B: PMR / RAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA | C: PMR / RAA
Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.
This entry, we look at first basemen - first on the team level and then for individuals.
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 | RAA / 4000 |
| Cardinals | 4597 | 363 | 330.17 | 32.83 | 26.1999815 | 22.8 | 22.63 |
| Rays | 4264 | 337 | 309.47 | 27.53 | 21.9703165 | 20.61 | 20.44 |
| Astros | 4292 | 352 | 334.44 | 17.56 | 14.013758 | 13.06 | 12.89 |
| Angels | 4374 | 348 | 332.57 | 15.43 | 12.3139115 | 11.26 | 11.09 |
| Reds | 4299 | 340 | 326.62 | 13.38 | 10.677909 | 9.94 | 9.77 |
| Orioles | 4540 | 330 | 317.28 | 12.72 | 10.151196 | 8.94 | 8.77 |
| Giants | 4232 | 306 | 298.46 | 7.54 | 6.017297 | 5.69 | 5.52 |
| Braves | 4383 | 309 | 301.26 | 7.74 | 6.176907 | 5.64 | 5.47 |
| Mariners | 4512 | 312 | 305.65 | 6.35 | 5.0676175 | 4.49 | 4.32 |
| Padres | 4419 | 314 | 308.13 | 5.87 | 4.6845535 | 4.24 | 4.07 |
| Cubs | 4156 | 339 | 334.4 | 4.6 | 3.67103 | 3.53 | 3.36 |
| Athletics | 4285 | 287 | 282.84 | 4.16 | 3.319888 | 3.1 | 2.93 |
| Mets | 4335 | 323 | 319.48 | 3.52 | 2.809136 | 2.59 | 2.42 |
| Pirates | 4683 | 293 | 290.12 | 2.88 | 2.298384 | 1.96 | 1.79 |
| White Sox | 4409 | 295 | 292.85 | 2.15 | 1.7158075 | 1.56 | 1.39 |
| Red Sox | 4232 | 300 | 298.07 | 1.93 | 1.5402365 | 1.46 | 1.29 |
| Blue Jays | 4215 | 346 | 345.24 | 0.76 | 0.606518 | 0.58 | 0.41 |
| Rangers | 4667 | 292 | 292.72 | -0.72 | -0.574596 | -0.49 | -0.66 |
| Dodgers | 4265 | 288 | 290 | -2 | -1.5961 | -1.5 | -1.67 |
| Rockies | 4535 | 311 | 318.74 | -7.74 | -6.176907 | -5.45 | -5.62 |
| Tigers | 4536 | 258 | 267.9 | -9.9 | -7.900695 | -6.97 | -7.14 |
| Phillies | 4396 | 335 | 345.93 | -10.93 | -8.7226865 | -7.94 | -8.11 |
| Royals | 4413 | 270 | 282.47 | -12.47 | -9.9516835 | -9.02 | -9.19 |
| Brewers | 4354 | 299 | 311.39 | -12.39 | -9.8878395 | -9.08 | -9.25 |
| Nationals | 4417 | 279 | 292.73 | -13.73 | -10.957227 | -9.92 | -10.09 |
| Indians | 4513 | 276 | 290.25 | -14.25 | -11.372213 | -10.08 | -10.25 |
| Yankees | 4349 | 270 | 286.22 | -16.22 | -12.944371 | -11.91 | -12.08 |
| Marlins | 4338 | 296 | 314.6 | -18.6 | -14.84373 | -13.69 | -13.86 |
| Diamondbacks | 4224 | 292 | 311.45 | -19.45 | -15.522073 | -14.7 | -14.87 |
| Twins | 4607 | 262 | 283.33 | -21.33 | -17.022407 | -14.78 | -14.95 |
| Player | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 |
RAA / 4000 |
| Albert Pujols | 3833 | 310 | 275.7 | 34.3 | 27.373115 | 28.57 | 28.4 |
| Carlos Pena | 3428 | 272 | 250.39 | 21.61 | 17.2458605 | 20.12 | 19.95 |
| Lance Berkman | 3899 | 329 | 309.21 | 19.79 | 15.7934095 | 16.2 | 16.03 |
| Mark Teixeira | 4009 | 322 | 302.91 | 19.09 | 15.2347745 | 15.2 | 15.03 |
| Rich Aurillia | 1398 | 94 | 88.21 | 5.79 | 4.6207095 | 13.22 | 13.05 |
| Joey Votto | 3686 | 300 | 285.79 | 14.21 | 11.3402905 | 12.31 | 12.14 |
| Kevin Millar | 3607 | 264 | 250.96 | 13.04 | 10.406572 | 11.54 | 11.37 |
| Todd Helton | 2272 | 165 | 158.79 | 6.21 | 4.9558905 | 8.73 | 8.56 |
| Casey Kotchman | 3659 | 268 | 259.14 | 8.86 | 7.070723 | 7.73 | 7.56 |
| Kevin Youkilis | 2835 | 212 | 206.26 | 5.74 | 4.580807 | 6.46 | 6.29 |
| Paul Konerko | 3069 | 214 | 207.95 | 6.05 | 4.8282025 | 6.29 | 6.12 |
| Derrek Lee | 3848 | 322 | 315.59 | 6.41 | 5.1155005 | 5.32 | 5.15 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 4302 | 307 | 300.33 | 6.67 | 5.3229935 | 4.95 | 4.78 |
| Daric Barton | 3322 | 211 | 207.92 | 3.08 | 2.457994 | 2.96 | 2.79 |
| Carlos Delgado | 4088 | 306 | 305.6 | 0.4 | 0.31922 | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| Lyle Overbay | 3919 | 330 | 329.98 | 0.02 | 0.015961 | 0.02 | -0.15 |
| James Loney | 4023 | 267 | 267.57 | -0.57 | -0.4548885 | -0.45 | -0.62 |
| Chris Davis | 1295 | 81 | 81.23 | -0.23 | -0.1835515 | -0.57 | -0.74 |
| Adam LaRoche | 3647 | 224 | 226.6 | -2.6 | -2.07493 | -2.28 | -2.45 |
| Miguel Cairo | 1223 | 84 | 84.91 | -0.91 | -0.7262255 | -2.38 | -2.55 |
| Aaron Boone | 1040 | 61 | 62.74 | -1.74 | -1.388607 | -5.34 | -5.51 |
| Richie Sexson | 2103 | 133 | 137.24 | -4.24 | -3.383732 | -6.44 | -6.61 |
| Nick Swisher | 1340 | 81 | 84.91 | -3.91 | -3.1203755 | -9.31 | -9.48 |
| Ross Gload | 2727 | 163 | 171.75 | -8.75 | -6.9829375 | -10.24 | -10.41 |
| Prince Fielder | 4133 | 280 | 293.92 | -13.92 | -11.108856 | -10.75 | -10.92 |
| Ryan Howard | 4254 | 322 | 336.79 | -14.79 | -11.80316 | -11.1 | -11.27 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 3772 | 220 | 234.22 | -14.22 | -11.348271 | -12.03 | -12.2 |
| Chad Tracy | 1496 | 110 | 115.89 | -5.89 | -4.7005145 | -12.57 | -12.74 |
| Ryan Garko | 3323 | 198 | 211.16 | -13.16 | -10.502338 | -12.64 | -12.81 |
| John Bowker | 1607 | 104 | 110.6 | -6.6 | -5.26713 | -13.11 | -13.28 |
| Jason Giambi | 2795 | 164 | 177.51 | -13.51 | -10.781656 | -15.43 | -15.6 |
| Sean Casey | 1042 | 65 | 70.15 | -5.15 | -4.1099575 | -15.78 | -15.95 |
| Conor Jackson | 1696 | 109 | 117.4 | -8.4 | -6.70362 | -15.81 | -15.98 |
| Justin Morneau | 4289 | 242 | 264.41 | -22.41 | -17.884301 | -16.68 | -16.85 |
| Garrett Atkins | 1638 | 101 | 110.77 | -9.77 | -7.7969485 | -19.04 | -19.21 |
| Mike Jacobs | 2860 | 175 | 194.95 | -19.95 | -15.921098 | -22.27 | -22.44 |
Is there any thing Albert Pujols can't do? Cure cancer? Acheive world peace? Just wait till he puts his mind to those tasks. Not content with being the best offensive player in the league, he's also one of the top defensive players relative to position in the majors. Actually, the top 4 first basemen in fielding are also quite good offensively. That probably speaks to the relative defensive ease of first base, but it's a very different situation from any other position.
While Justin Morneau might have a good case offensively for his second MVP, his defensive performance should disqualify him from consideration. Yet again, a Pujols versus Howard duel for MVP awaits in the NL. This one really should be a blowout for Pujols since there was close to a 4 win difference just on defense, but I'm not holding my breath for the BBWAA to take that into consideration.
Even though Nick Swisher was almost 10 runs below average, the Yankees would still have gained .6 wins on defense had he been their first baseman instead of Jason Giambi. I'm surprised Sean Casey ranked so poorly. Hopefully he's not done at 33, since he's reportedly one of the nicest guys in the game. And the Royals better be considering Mike Jacobs a DH, not a first baseman, since he makes Ross Gload look like a Gold Glover.