Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMR / RAA | 3B: PMR / RAAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA
Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.
Today, we look at left fielders - first on the team level and then for individuals.
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 | RAA / 4000 |
| Royals | 4413 | 368 | 353.21 | 14.79 | 12.296406 | 11.15 | 10.77 |
| Rays | 4264 | 344 | 331.81 | 12.19 | 10.134766 | 9.51 | 9.13 |
| Indians | 4513 | 302 | 290.89 | 11.11 | 9.236854 | 8.19 | 7.81 |
| Nationals | 4417 | 350 | 339.72 | 10.28 | 8.546792 | 7.74 | 7.36 |
| Mets | 4335 | 308 | 299.09 | 8.91 | 7.407774 | 6.84 | 6.46 |
| Diamondbacks | 4224 | 306 | 298.79 | 7.21 | 5.994394 | 5.68 | 5.3 |
| Orioles | 4540 | 362 | 355.59 | 6.41 | 5.329274 | 4.7 | 4.32 |
| Brewers | 4354 | 305 | 299.07 | 5.93 | 4.930202 | 4.53 | 4.15 |
| Braves | 4383 | 279 | 273.49 | 5.51 | 4.581014 | 4.18 | 3.8 |
| Rangers | 4667 | 323 | 317.21 | 5.79 | 4.813806 | 4.13 | 3.75 |
| White Sox | 4409 | 293 | 287.74 | 5.26 | 4.373164 | 3.97 | 3.59 |
| Athletics | 4285 | 333 | 328.28 | 4.72 | 3.924208 | 3.66 | 3.28 |
| Padres | 4419 | 310 | 306.42 | 3.58 | 2.976412 | 2.69 | 2.31 |
| Astros | 4292 | 282 | 278.71 | 3.29 | 2.735306 | 2.55 | 2.17 |
| Cardinals | 4597 | 312 | 308.84 | 3.16 | 2.627224 | 2.29 | 1.91 |
| Red Sox | 4232 | 292 | 291.37 | 0.63 | 0.523782 | 0.5 | 0.12 |
| Dodgers | 4265 | 286 | 285.62 | 0.38 | 0.315932 | 0.3 | -0.08 |
| Tigers | 4536 | 356 | 355.77 | 0.23 | 0.191222 | 0.17 | -0.21 |
| Giants | 4232 | 308 | 308.26 | -0.26 | -0.216164 | -0.2 | -0.58 |
| Yankees | 4349 | 316 | 316.76 | -0.76 | -0.631864 | -0.58 | -0.96 |
| Angels | 4374 | 285 | 286.29 | -1.29 | -1.072506 | -0.98 | -1.36 |
| Cubs | 4156 | 302 | 304.23 | -2.23 | -1.854022 | -1.78 | -2.16 |
| Blue Jays | 4215 | 270 | 272.75 | -2.75 | -2.28635 | -2.17 | -2.55 |
| Pirates | 4683 | 293 | 299.34 | -6.34 | -5.271076 | -4.5 | -4.88 |
| Reds | 4299 | 280 | 288.41 | -8.41 | -6.992074 | -6.51 | -6.89 |
| Rockies | 4535 | 282 | 290.95 | -8.95 | -7.44103 | -6.56 | -6.94 |
| Marlins | 4338 | 289 | 299.06 | -10.06 | -8.363884 | -7.71 | -8.09 |
| Mariners | 4512 | 324 | 336.18 | -12.18 | -10.126452 | -8.98 | -9.36 |
| Phillies | 4396 | 260 | 279.09 | -19.09 | -15.871426 | -14.44 | -14.82 |
| Twins | 4607 | 306 | 327.83 | -21.83 | -18.149462 | -15.76 | -16.14 |
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 |
RAA / 4000 |
| Skip Schumaker | 1085 | 85 | 73.79 | 11.21 | 9.319994 | 34.36 | 33.98 |
| David DeJesus | 1522 | 136 | 121.91 | 14.09 | 11.714426 | 30.79 | 30.41 |
| Matt Joyce | 1249 | 94 | 84.77 | 9.23 | 7.673822 | 24.58 | 24.2 |
| Brandon Boggs | 1818 | 131 | 118.1 | 12.9 | 10.72506 | 23.6 | 23.22 |
| Ben Francisco | 2021 | 150 | 138.34 | 11.66 | 9.694124 | 19.19 | 18.81 |
| Willie Harris | 1685 | 145 | 135.55 | 9.45 | 7.85673 | 18.65 | 18.27 |
| Carl Crawford | 2715 | 231 | 217.97 | 13.03 | 10.833142 | 15.96 | 15.58 |
| Juan Pierre | 1816 | 125 | 116.83 | 8.17 | 6.792538 | 14.96 | 14.58 |
| Jay Payton | 1293 | 132 | 126.31 | 5.69 | 4.730666 | 14.63 | 14.25 |
| Conor Jackson | 1944 | 146 | 139.06 | 6.94 | 5.769916 | 11.87 | 11.49 |
| Gregor Blanco | 1547 | 86 | 82.08 | 3.92 | 3.259088 | 8.43 | 8.05 |
| Johnny Damon | 1998 | 155 | 152 | 3 | 2.4942 | 4.99 | 4.61 |
| Luke Scott | 2668 | 200 | 196.08 | 3.92 | 3.259088 | 4.89 | 4.51 |
| Wily Mo Pena | 1260 | 99 | 97.68 | 1.32 | 1.097448 | 3.48 | 3.1 |
| Ryan Braun | 3919 | 275 | 270.93 | 4.07 | 3.383798 | 3.45 | 3.07 |
| Carlos Lee | 2840 | 187 | 185.42 | 1.58 | 1.313612 | 1.85 | 1.47 |
| Adam Dunn | 2942 | 210 | 209.06 | 0.94 | 0.781516 | 1.06 | 0.68 |
| David Dellucci | 1164 | 75 | 74.64 | 0.36 | 0.299304 | 1.03 | 0.65 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 2653 | 186 | 185.23 | 0.77 | 0.640178 | 0.97 | 0.59 |
| Fred Lewis | 2622 | 178 | 177.57 | 0.43 | 0.357502 | 0.55 | 0.17 |
| Carlos Quentin | 3465 | 228 | 228.42 | -0.42 | -0.349188 | -0.4 | -0.78 |
| Jack Cust | 1753 | 129 | 129.74 | -0.74 | -0.615236 | -1.4 | -1.78 |
| Emil Brown | 1229 | 89 | 89.7 | -0.7 | -0.58198 | -1.89 | -2.27 |
| Chase Headley | 2159 | 156 | 157.62 | -1.62 | -1.346868 | -2.5 | -2.88 |
| Matt Holliday | 3850 | 240 | 243.2 | -3.2 | -2.66048 | -2.76 | -3.14 |
| Manny Ramirez | 2894 | 190 | 193.4 | -3.4 | -2.82676 | -3.91 | -4.29 |
| Adam Lind | 1712 | 113 | 115.52 | -2.52 | -2.095128 | -4.9 | -5.28 |
| Xavier Nady | 1212 | 87 | 89.04 | -2.04 | -1.696056 | -5.6 | -5.98 |
| Chris Duncan | 1012 | 73 | 74.8 | -1.8 | -1.49652 | -5.92 | -6.3 |
| Garret Anderson | 2113 | 144 | 148.53 | -4.53 | -3.766242 | -7.13 | -7.51 |
| Raul Ibanez | 4203 | 303 | 312.07 | -9.07 | -7.540798 | -7.18 | -7.56 |
| Jose Guillen | 1098 | 83 | 85.62 | -2.62 | -2.178268 | -7.94 | -8.32 |
| David Murphy | 1317 | 86 | 89.62 | -3.62 | -3.009668 | -9.14 | -9.52 |
| Luis Gonzalez | 1547 | 105 | 109.32 | -4.32 | -3.591648 | -9.29 | -9.67 |
| Josh Willingham | 2551 | 166 | 173.8 | -7.8 | -6.48492 | -10.17 | -10.55 |
| Jason Bay | 4215 | 254 | 268.19 | -14.19 | -11.797566 | -11.2 | -11.58 |
| Eric Byrnes | 1209 | 76 | 80.12 | -4.12 | -3.425368 | -11.33 | -11.71 |
| Delmon Young | 4209 | 282 | 301.19 | -19.19 | -15.954566 | -15.16 | -15.54 |
| Marcus Thames | 1537 | 120 | 127.42 | -7.42 | -6.168988 | -16.05 | -16.43 |
| Pat Burrell | 3646 | 202 | 223.39 | -21.39 | -17.783646 | -19.51 | -19.89 |
Two of the worst center fielders, Skip Schumaker and David DeJesus show up as the best left fielders. There aren't a whole lot of full-time left fielders, as the highest rated player with more than 3000 BIP is Ryan Braun at number 15. Big improvement for the Brew Crew in moving him from 3B.
The 16th and 17th rated left fielders are a surprise as well. Neither Carlos Lee or Adam Dunn are thought of as good fielders, yet they both scored between 3 and 4 runs above average. If this number is correct for Dunn, and he can maintain this level of fielding ability for another few years, he could be quite a steal this offseason. The other major non-Manny free agent from the left field crop, Pat Burrell, probably should be looking for an AL team to DH for, since he was by far the worst left fielder this season.
Extremely surprising is the relative placement of Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay. Manny has always been considered a pretty terrible outfielder by the play-by-play metrics. While many of those have had problems dealing with Fenway, even his road numbers were nothing to write home about. Jason Bay, at least to my memory, has been a pretty good fielder - even getting some games in CF (although the last of those was in 2005). Still, Manny finished 8 runs above Bay. I wonder how much of this is a Fenway factor, and how much of it is the conventional wisdom being wrong. Of course the Red Sox as a whole were basically average in left field, so Bay was likely pretty bad in Pittsburgh.