How good is the question I decided to attempt to answer. First I collected the data for 30 of the top relievers in the business. From save-record setting closers like Francisco Rodriguez to relievers only this site would fawn over like Scott Downs. I then took their tRA, subtracted .35 to get on a ERA scale, and multiplied that by innings pitched divided by nine. Here are those results:
Reliever | IP | tRA | pLI | Pre-LRS |
Rivera | 70 | 1.11 | 1.92 | 31 |
Kuo | 69 | 1.75 | 1.09 | 26 |
Marmol | 87.3 | 2.49 | 1.46 | 25 |
Papelbon | 66.3 | 2.03 | 1.59 | 23 |
Fuentes | 62.7 | 1.97 | 2.01 | 22 |
Wood | 65.3 | 2.11 | 1.99 | 22 |
Lidge | 68 | 2.31 | 1.91 | 21 |
Balfour | 58.3 | 2.08 | 1.26 | 20 |
Nathan | 66 | 2.65 | 1.93 | 18 |
Broxton | 69 | 2.78 | 1.7 | 18 |
Soria | 67.3 | 2.82 | 1.78 | 17 |
Downs | 70.7 | 2.95 | 1.6 | 17 |
Devine | 45.3 | 1.93 | 1.36 | 16 |
Saito | 45 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 15 |
Jenks | 61.7 | 2.89 | 1.75 | 15 |
Arredondo | 61 | 3.14 | 1.29 | 13 |
Street | 70 | 3.58 | 1.91 | 12 |
Marte | 65 | 3.45 | 1.39 | 12 |
Rodriguez | 68.3 | 3.59 | 2.54 | 11 |
Bell | 78 | 3.79 | 1.77 | 11 |
Shields | 63.3 | 3.68 | 1.83 | 10 |
Ziegler | 59.7 | 3.77 | 1.69 | 9 |
B. Wilson | 62.3 | 4.08 | 2.25 | 7 |
Hoffman | 45.3 | 3.67 | 1.9 | 7 |
Capps | 53.7 | 3.95 | 1.7 | 7 |
Lyon | 59.3 | 4 | 1.65 | 7 |
Rauch | 71.7 | 4.17 | 1.32 | 7 |
Sherrill | 53.3 | 4.07 | 2.02 | 6 |
Corpas | 79.7 | 4.57 | 1.37 | 5 |
Romero | 59 | 4.39 | 1.52 | 5 |
My next question was this: should J.C. Romero's innings count the same as Mariano Rivera's? Not due to the number next to that inning, but rather the leverage situation. Since pLI is readily available at FanGraphs I decided to add that in. Adjusting the formula by simply multiplying our "Pre-LRS" by pLI. Call it Leveraged Runs Saved, and I included the Pre-LRS numbers in case you don't want a context-based metric.
Reliever | IP | tRA | pLI | Pre-LRS | LRS |
Rivera | 70 | 1.11 | 1.92 | 31 | 60 |
Fuentes | 62.7 | 1.97 | 2.01 | 22 | 44 |
Wood | 65.3 | 2.11 | 1.99 | 22 | 43 |
Lidge | 68 | 2.31 | 1.91 | 21 | 40 |
Marmol | 87.3 | 2.49 | 1.46 | 25 | 37 |
Papelbon | 66.3 | 2.03 | 1.59 | 23 | 36 |
Nathan | 66 | 2.65 | 1.93 | 18 | 35 |
Broxton | 69 | 2.78 | 1.7 | 18 | 30 |
Soria | 67.3 | 2.82 | 1.78 | 17 | 30 |
Rodriguez | 68.3 | 3.59 | 2.54 | 11 | 29 |
Kuo | 69 | 1.75 | 1.09 | 26 | 28 |
Downs | 70.7 | 2.95 | 1.6 | 17 | 27 |
Jenks | 61.7 | 2.89 | 1.75 | 15 | 27 |
Saito | 45 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 15 | 26 |
Balfour | 58.3 | 2.08 | 1.26 | 20 | 25 |
Street | 70 | 3.58 | 1.91 | 12 | 23 |
Devine | 45.3 | 1.93 | 1.36 | 16 | 22 |
Bell | 78 | 3.79 | 1.77 | 11 | 20 |
Shields | 63.3 | 3.68 | 1.83 | 10 | 18 |
Arredondo | 61 | 3.14 | 1.29 | 13 | 17 |
Marte | 65 | 3.45 | 1.39 | 12 | 17 |
B. Wilson | 62.3 | 4.08 | 2.25 | 7 | 16 |
Ziegler | 59.7 | 3.77 | 1.69 | 9 | 15 |
Hoffman | 45.3 | 3.67 | 1.9 | 7 | 14 |
Capps | 53.7 | 3.95 | 1.7 | 7 | 12 |
Lyon | 59.3 | 4 | 1.65 | 7 | 12 |
Sherrill | 53.3 | 4.07 | 2.02 | 6 | 12 |
Rauch | 71.7 | 4.17 | 1.32 | 7 | 10 |
Romero | 59 | 4.39 | 1.52 | 5 | 7 |
Corpas | 79.7 | 4.57 | 1.37 | 5 | 6 |
You'll notice Rivera's lead only increases. He's almost 20 runs better than the next of the best reliever. That's amazing. Remember Rivera is 38 and only recorded 39 saves this season. For whatever reason not a ton of people talked about his season, I guess the Yankees not being a playoff team had something to do with it, yet I'm not going to accept that as a reasonable excuse.
Other notes:
- Kuo was just as good as Rodriguez, but his town mate had 61 more saves.
- Speaking of Los Angeles, both teams have three relievers listed.
- Same with Oakland, pre-Street trade.
- Can Joe Nathan get some love? Just a little?
- Marmol/Wood is the best National League combo.
- Broxton + Soria = Rivera. Seriously someone get this man some more love.
References