Team: PMR / RAA | 1B: PMR / RAA | 2B: PMR / RAA | 3B: PMR / RAA | SS: PMR / RAA | LF: PMR / RAA | CF: PMR / RAA | RF: PMR / RAA
Each season, David Pinto releases his Probablistic Measure of Range (PMR) ratings based on play-by-play data from Baseball Info Solutions. PMR measures how many plays above or below expected each team or player made based on batted ball characteristics like velocity and location. Here at Beyond the Box Score, we're translating the play numbers into runs (following a method developed by LA Black Hawk of Waterloo). More information can be found in this post.
Today, we look at center fielders - first on the team level and then for individuals.
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 | RAA / 4000 |
| Rays | 4264 | 451 | 438.07 | 12.93 | 10.8879651 | 10.21 | 10.2 |
| Mets | 4335 | 435 | 422.51 | 12.49 | 10.5174543 | 9.7 | 9.69 |
| Twins | 4607 | 488 | 475.21 | 12.79 | 10.7700753 | 9.35 | 9.34 |
| Athletics | 4285 | 444 | 433.07 | 10.93 | 9.2038251 | 8.59 | 8.58 |
| Phillies | 4396 | 389 | 378.54 | 10.46 | 8.8080522 | 8.01 | 8 |
| Reds | 4299 | 413 | 404.02 | 8.98 | 7.5617886 | 7.04 | 7.03 |
| Angels | 4374 | 429 | 421.94 | 7.06 | 5.9450142 | 5.44 | 5.43 |
| Astros | 4292 | 427 | 420.91 | 6.09 | 5.1282063 | 4.78 | 4.77 |
| Brewers | 4354 | 406 | 400.2 | 5.8 | 4.884006 | 4.49 | 4.48 |
| Mariners | 4512 | 435 | 429.86 | 5.14 | 4.3282398 | 3.84 | 3.83 |
| Rockies | 4535 | 405 | 400.3 | 4.7 | 3.957729 | 3.49 | 3.48 |
| Yankees | 4349 | 407 | 402.92 | 4.08 | 3.4356456 | 3.16 | 3.15 |
| Diamondbacks | 4224 | 402 | 398.46 | 3.54 | 2.9809278 | 2.82 | 2.81 |
| Dodgers | 4265 | 377 | 374.62 | 2.38 | 2.0041266 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
| Red Sox | 4232 | 406 | 404.43 | 1.57 | 1.3220499 | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| Marlins | 4338 | 438 | 436.46 | 1.54 | 1.2967878 | 1.2 | 1.19 |
| Braves | 4383 | 360 | 361.2 | -1.2 | -1.010484 | -0.92 | -0.93 |
| Pirates | 4683 | 433 | 434.85 | -1.85 | -1.5578295 | -1.33 | -1.34 |
| Indians | 4513 | 412 | 414.22 | -2.22 | -1.8693954 | -1.66 | -1.67 |
| Orioles | 4540 | 440 | 442.64 | -2.64 | -2.2230648 | -1.96 | -1.97 |
| Padres | 4419 | 453 | 456.46 | -3.46 | -2.9135622 | -2.64 | -2.65 |
| Rangers | 4667 | 451 | 456.5 | -5.5 | -4.631385 | -3.97 | -3.98 |
| Cubs | 4156 | 391 | 396.42 | -5.42 | -4.5640194 | -4.39 | -4.4 |
| Giants | 4232 | 454 | 460.66 | -6.66 | -5.6081862 | -5.3 | -5.31 |
| White Sox | 4409 | 362 | 369.04 | -7.04 | -5.9281728 | -5.38 | -5.39 |
| Blue Jays | 4215 | 381 | 389.5 | -8.5 | -7.157595 | -6.79 | -6.8 |
| Tigers | 4536 | 450 | 460.98 | -10.98 | -9.2459286 | -8.15 | -8.16 |
| Nationals | 4417 | 426 | 439.8 | -13.8 | -11.620566 | -10.52 | -10.53 |
| Royals | 4413 | 417 | 436.29 | -19.29 | -16.24353 | -14.72 | -14.73 |
| Cardinals | 4597 | 388 | 409.47 | -21.47 | -18.079243 | -15.73 | -15.74 |
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Outs Delta | Runs Delta | Runs / 4000 |
RAA / 4000 |
| Rajai Davis | 1483 | 153 | 142.55 | 10.45 | 8.7996315 | 23.73 | 23.72 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 1887 | 195 | 186.2 | 8.8 | 7.410216 | 15.71 | 15.7 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1585 | 176 | 169 | 7 | 5.89449 | 14.88 | 14.87 |
| B.J. Upton | 3642 | 378 | 362.2 | 15.8 | 13.304706 | 14.61 | 14.6 |
| Carlos Gomez | 3988 | 437 | 422.56 | 14.44 | 12.1594908 | 12.2 | 12.19 |
| Marlon Byrd | 1372 | 149 | 145.28 | 3.72 | 3.1325004 | 9.13 | 9.12 |
| Carlos Beltran | 4171 | 418 | 407.47 | 10.53 | 8.8669971 | 8.5 | 8.49 |
| Gregor Blanco | 1495 | 128 | 124.87 | 3.13 | 2.6356791 | 7.05 | 7.04 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 1660 | 171 | 168.01 | 2.99 | 2.5177893 | 6.07 | 6.06 |
| Wily Taveras | 3124 | 282 | 276.52 | 5.48 | 4.6145436 | 5.91 | 5.9 |
| Brian Anderson | 1295 | 102 | 99.83 | 2.17 | 1.8272919 | 5.64 | 5.63 |
| Torii Hunter | 3587 | 350 | 344.29 | 5.71 | 4.8082197 | 5.36 | 5.35 |
| Chris Young | 4091 | 393 | 387.93 | 5.07 | 4.2692949 | 4.17 | 4.16 |
| Andruw Jones | 1481 | 133 | 131.63 | 1.37 | 1.1536359 | 3.12 | 3.11 |
| Shane Victorino | 3619 | 314 | 310.92 | 3.08 | 2.5935756 | 2.87 | 2.86 |
| Michael Bourn | 3051 | 291 | 289 | 2 | 1.68414 | 2.21 | 2.2 |
| Melky Cabrera | 2919 | 272 | 270.56 | 1.44 | 1.2125808 | 1.66 | 1.65 |
| Corey Patterson | 2388 | 242 | 241.55 | 0.45 | 0.3789315 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| Alfredo Amezaga | 1451 | 146 | 145.75 | 0.25 | 0.2105175 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Grady Sizemore | 4199 | 382 | 382.73 | -0.73 | -0.6147111 | -0.59 | -0.6 |
| Adam Jones | 3487 | 337 | 337.64 | -0.64 | -0.5389248 | -0.62 | -0.63 |
| Matt Kemp | 2425 | 209 | 209.73 | -0.73 | -0.6147111 | -1.01 | -1.02 |
| Coco Crisp | 2534 | 234 | 235.17 | -1.17 | -0.9852219 | -1.56 | -1.57 |
| Jeremy Reed | 1439 | 132 | 132.92 | -0.92 | -0.7747044 | -2.15 | -2.16 |
| Jim Edmonds | 3420 | 242 | 244.43 | -2.43 | -2.0462301 | -2.39 | -2.4 |
| Cody Ross | 2561 | 254 | 255.96 | -1.96 | -1.6504572 | -2.58 | -2.59 |
| Mike Cameron | 3174 | 293 | 295.47 | -2.47 | -2.0799129 | -2.62 | -2.63 |
| Aaron Rowand | 3750 | 411 | 414.28 | -3.28 | -2.7619896 | -2.95 | -2.96 |
| Alex Rios | 1531 | 156 | 158.34 | -2.34 | -1.9704438 | -5.15 | -5.16 |
| Jody Gerut | 1816 | 189 | 191.84 | -2.84 | -2.3914788 | -5.27 | -5.28 |
| Mark Kotsay | 2145 | 173 | 176.54 | -3.54 | -2.9809278 | -5.56 | -5.57 |
| Reed Johnson | 1618 | 144 | 147.07 | -3.07 | -2.5851549 | -6.39 | -6.4 |
| Nate McLouth | 4228 | 380 | 388.88 | -8.88 | -7.4775816 | -7.07 | -7.08 |
| Josh Hamilton | 2977 | 268 | 274.44 | -6.44 | -5.4229308 | -7.29 | -7.3 |
| Vernon Wells | 2582 | 217 | 222.72 | -5.72 | -4.8166404 | -7.46 | -7.47 |
| Scott Hairston | 1152 | 114 | 116.69 | -2.69 | -2.2651683 | -7.87 | -7.88 |
| Joey Gathright | 2242 | 197 | 202.5 | -5.5 | -4.631385 | -8.26 | -8.27 |
| Curtis Granderson | 3740 | 366 | 379.16 | -13.16 | -11.081641 | -11.85 | -11.86 |
| Nick Swisher | 1650 | 138 | 144 | -6 | -5.05242 | -12.25 | -12.26 |
| Skip Schumaker | 1760 | 136 | 143.45 | -7.45 | -6.2734215 | -14.26 | -14.27 |
| Lastings Milledge | 3632 | 348 | 365.21 | -17.21 | -14.492025 | -15.96 | -15.97 |
| Rick Ankiel | 2433 | 213 | 224.6 | -11.6 | -9.768012 | -16.06 | -16.07 |
| Ryan Sweeney | 1053 | 95 | 102.85 | -7.85 | -6.6102495 | -25.11 | -25.12 |
| David DeJesus | 1524 | 151 | 163.83 | -12.83 | -10.803758 | -28.36 | -28.37 |
If the B.J. Upton from the playoffs shows up next year, the rest of the American League is in trouble. Ichiro showed he could excel in CF, but then returned to RF anyway. The A's lose about 4 wins over the course of a season simply from defense by trading away Carlos Gonzalez if they give the job to Ryan Sweeney. Josh Hamilton ranked pretty poorly, which is counter to a lot of reports. And Vernon Wells ranked lower than I would have expected too. I'm still waiting for the Blue Jays to demonstrate where their extremely high team ranking came from, since they've been no better than middle of the pack on the three positions so far. Unfortunately the Royals were still running David DeJesus out to CF more often than not at the end of the season. He's much better suited to a corner position, but they don't really have a spot for him there because of the Jose Guillen signing.
In the National League, Carlos Beltran is the same as he ever was. Rajai Davis was a surprise (oops, he's on the A's now) - the only saving grace of the Matt Morris trade in 2007 was I didn't think the Pirates gave up anything of value. Guess I was wrong there. Speaking of the Pirates, Nate McLouth is a joke for a Gold Glove, but he's nowhere near the -40 plays (roughly -33 runs) that Dewan lists him in his +/- ratings. The Cardinals could really use some defensive help in CF. Neither Schumaker or Ankiel are really center fielders. Andruw Jones' performance was a nice surprise. It's definitely not Andruw in his prime, but defense was about the only skill he would have ranked above average at last season.