We've linked to a couple studies recently on determining what to expect from each slot of the rotation. David (spurdynasty over at Lone Star Ball) decided to take a more applied route and analyzed each team's rotation on the 1-5 scale.
It's a pretty basic methodology, but does a solid job of painting a representative picture of what each team had going for it. All pitchers with at least 100 IP (to remove the relievers) were sorted in order of tRA* (thanks, StatCorner.com). The first thirty were called #1s, the next thirty #2s, and so on. There were only 130 pitchers with 100 IP, so only ten pitchers were labeled #5s. To fill out rotations, empty spots were called #5.5s. Then David averaged the five ratings to put all thirty teams in order. Take a look:
Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | Avg |
D'backs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.6 |
WhiteSox | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.8 |
BlueJays | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Dodgers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5.5 | 2.1 |
Angels | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2.2 |
Brewers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2.2 |
Rays | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2.4 |
Rockies | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
Braves | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
Cubs | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 2.7 |
Indians | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2.8 |
Royals | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2.8 |
RedSox | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 2.9 |
Mets | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Cardinals | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Reds | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
Astros | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
Padres | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.1 |
Twins | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3.2 |
Phillies | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3.2 |
Giants | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3.2 |
Marlins | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.5 |
A's | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.7 |
Pirates | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5.5 | 3.7 |
Nat's | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | 3.7 |
Yankees | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.8 |
Tigers | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
Mariners | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
Orioles | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 4.5 |
Rangers | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
Some observations:
- Evidently the Rangers' defensive problems can't just be explained by fielding and home park.
- There were three teams without a #1 or #2 starter: the Tigers, Orioles, and Rangers.
- There were three teams without a #4 or #5 starter: the Diamondbacks, White Sox, and Blue Jays. Two of those teams missed the playoffs.
- Eight teams had two or more #1 starters. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers had three.
- The Cardinals were the only team without a #1 or #5 starter.
- CC Sabathia counted as a #1 for both the Indians and Brewers, with his stints ranking ninth and first respectively.
- The Phillies had the lowest-ranking rotation of any playoff team. Yay, defense.
- The Reds, Astros, and Padres all had rotations that went 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.5. The Indians, Twins, Phillies, and Giants were all a single point away from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 rotations.
- There weren't any teams with three #1s or #2s and two #4s or #5s, which would be the ideal rotation to leverage for the playoffs. The Indians had the best rotation to include two pitchers no better than a #4
If anyone's interested in building on David's work and accounting for things like innings pitched, go right ahead