Musings on the 1st Annual BTB Readers' League Draft

On Wednesday, March 8, at 8:15 PM EST, I took part in a fantasy draft with Marc Normandin and a bunch of readers. This'll be an ol' "thought-process" type thing. I'll record what I think about each round, and why I made every pick that I did. At the same time, I'll talk about things I liked and things that I wouldn't have done. (If I didn't like it, you're probably onto something good.)

Here are the parameters:

1. This is a 12-team league.
   
2. The draft was a 25-round serpentine draft; the order goes back and forth every round.
   
3. We're a 7x7 league with the following stats: H, R, RBI, BB, TB, SB, OPS for hitters, and IP, W, SV, ERA, K/9, K/BB, and WHIP for pitchers.
   
4. The draft order was as follows:

Sons of Ed Sprague
Karate Explosion
Diamond Dawgs
The Slurves
The Slumpers (Me)
Nine Bill Muellers (a lie if I've ever seen one; he disappointingly took good players instead)
The DungenessDragons
Boston Stranglers (Marc)
Power Hour of Power
Statutory Apes (the best name, by far)
Academic All Stars
Death By Sexy

For the sake of privacy, user names will not be disclosed.

And so, the draft began...

1. Sons of Ed Sprague - David Ortiz
   
2. Karate Explosion - Alex Rodriguez
   
3. Diamond Dawgs - Felix Hernandez
   
4. The Slurves - Albert Pujols
   
5. The Slumpers - Mark Teixiera
   
6. Nine Bill Muellers - Johan Santana
   
7. The Dungeness Dragons - Manny Ramirez
   
8. Boston Stranglers - Bobby Abreu
   
9. Power Hour of Power - Michael Young
   
10. Statutory Apes - Vladimir Guerrero
    
11. Academic All Stars - Derrek Lee
    
12. Death By Sexy - Carl Crawford

I made a Top 5 board to start out the draft, just because it makes the first selection a lot easier.

My board looked like this:

1. Alex Rodriguez
   
2. Albert Pujols
   
3. Mark Teixiera
   
4. Miguel Cabrera
   
5. Johan Santana

I knew I would end up with one of those five guys. A-Rod and Pujols are simply amazing hitters, and, while Pujols is better, I view A-Rod's position as more premium and he has a better surrounding cast. Cabrera's on the list because of positional flexibility. Johan Santana's on the list because he's the only pitcher I like in the first round.

Why Teixiera so high? He plays in a great hitter's park and is still maturing. He'll be 26 by the end of April, and he just keeps getting better; he hit .301/.379/.575 last year.

Teix fell to me, and, while I'd rather not take a guy like Teix b/c of the availability  of good first basemen later (see: Carlos Delgado), it was what I considered to be a low-risk type pick.

In this round, Vlad Guerrero was the steal, as Guerrero was my #6 guy and I'm sure often considered as a "second choice" type. If he's healthy, he's one of the 3-4 best players in the bigs, and he provides everything.

I was a little confused by the Felix Hernandez pick so high just because I couldn't imagine him being more valuable than Pujols. But would anyone be surprised if Felix hit his 90th percentile PECOTA? I sure as hell wouldn't be.

Onto round 2...

13. Death By Sexy - Miguel Tejada
    
14. Academic All Stars - David Wright
    
15. Statutory Apes - Jason Bay
    
16. Power Hour of Power - Roy Halladay
    
17. Boston Stranglers - Miguel Cabrera
    
18. The DungennessDragons - Jose Reyes
    
19. Nine Bill Muellers - Chris Carpenter
    
20. The Slumpers - Jake Peavy
    
21. The Slurves - Pedro Martinez
    
22. Diamond Dawgs - Chipper Jones
    
23. Karate Explosion - Gary Sheffield
    
24. Sons of Ed Sprague - Victor Martinez

My number 4 player, Miguel Cabrera, survived all the way until Marc, but I figured that he'd snatch him away from me. A debate happened on MinorLeagueBall.com about who was the better player: Wright or Cabrera. The vote was unbelievably close. Fantasy-wise, it's steals v. flexibility + provenness. I rated Cabrera higher than most b/c I like later-round third basemen (we'll get to that later), and because Cabrera's not a Met. I fear drafting Met players, as a Met fan, but that changed in Round 3.

Anyway, my pick was Peavy; he pitches in a great park and is simply a dynamite hurler. If he's healthy, I don't doubt that he'll be one of the best, and I was thrilled that he survived.

Kudos to Sons of Ed Sprague on the Victor Martinez grab; it could be a little high, but VM is the best catcher in the league, IMO. The Reyes pick worries me b/c he could be a drag on TB, OPS, and BB.

To Round 3:

25. Sons of Ed Sprague - Roy Oswalt
    
26. Karate Explosion - Ichiro
    
27. Diamond Dawgs - I-Rod
    
28. The Slurves - Alfonso Soriano
    
29. The Slumpers - Carlos Beltran
    
30. Nine Bill Muellers - Chase Utley
    
31. The Dungeness Dragons - Grady Sizemore
    
32. Boston Stranglers - Carlos Zambrano
    
33. Power Hour of Power - Travis Hafner
    
34. Statutory Apes - Todd Helton
    
35. Academic All-Stars - Andruw Jones
    
36. Death By Sexy - Chone Figgins

Well, Death By Sexy assured himself of leading the league in steals in this round; Figgins + Crawford = love, at least in the steals department.

Yes, I took Beltran, the disappointing Met, and I feel like I've violated several of my fantasy principles. But this is a guy who was drafted as the #2 and #3 overall pick in fantasy drafts last year, AND I saw him go #1 in a few. I won't let one bad year stop me.

I love the Oswalt pick here, but that's b/c he's an athletic inspiration to short guys like myself. My favorite pick of this round was Sizemore, because it made me realize the obvious: why did I take a gamble on Beltran when Sizemore's kind of a sure thing to be very similar to Beltran's peak?

The I-Rod pick was accidental, by Diamond Dawgs, and I wish we could have taken it back (he meant to pick Varitek). But that makes my job easy, huh?

Round 4:

37. Death By Sexy - Dontrelle Willis
    
38. Academic All-Stars - Jeff Kent
    
39. Statutory Apes - Rich Harden
    
40. Power Hour of Power - Joe Mauer
    
41. Boston Stranglers - Carlos Delgado
    
42. The DungenessDragons - Eric Gagne
    
43. Nine Bill Muellers - Aramis Ramirez
    
44. The Slumpers - Rafael Furcal
    
45. The Slurves - Mark Prior
    
46. Diamond Dawgs - Mariano Rivera
    
47. Karate Explosion - Jimmy Rollins
    
48. Sons of Ed Sprague - Mark Buerhle

Lots of stuff going on in this round...

Delgado was a great pick here and proved the wisdom of NOT taking Teixiera in the first round. Oh well, we live and learn, right?

Two closers went off the board, and I decided to adopt a "not-taking closers" approach. My initial closer philosophy was "Don't take a closer high not named Gagne," but that backfired on me last year, as he was my second rounder in a couple of leagues. Yikes.

I'm liking the Mauer pick and the Prior pick here as well, somewhat risky w/ injury histories, but certainly worthy at this point... actually, the only BAD pick was on me. I didn't realize the problems that Furcal was having with his rehab. So I eschewed Rollins and Peralta in favor of a SB/BB shortstop who might not be healthy enough to steal bases.

If Furcal and Beltran are healthy, I'll be OK in the steals department, but this was the first significant low-point of my draft, I think.

Moving right along, we get to Round 5:

49. Sons of Ed Sprague - Derek Jeter
    
50. Karate Explosion - Lance Berkman
    
51. Diamond Dawgs - Jim Thome
    
52. The Slurves - Carlos Lee
    
53. The Slumpers - Jason Varitek
    
54. Nine Bill Muellers - Richie Sexson
    
55. The DungenessDragons - Billy Wagner
    
56. Boston Stranglers - Adam Dunn
    
57. Power Hour of Power - Chad Tracy
    
58. Statutory Apes - Ryan Howard
    
59. Academic All-Stars - Paul Konerko
    
60. Death By Sexy - Ben Sheets

A bunch of very good picks this round. I took Varitek because I wanted to sure up a weak position and because Marc ensures me that he won't decline. Pretty simple. Plus I didn't really have another guy I wanted to take this high.

The Sexson and Dunn picks are the two best of the round because they exhibit an understanding of what is worthwhile. Sexson and Dunn are high BB, TB, and OPS guys. And those all count. Sheets at 60 is solid because Sheets, when healthy, is Cy Youngable.

Thome's a risk and a reach there, I thought. With Sexson, Dunn, and Howard all going later in the round, I thought that Thome was a bit too high here. I like a rebound from Thome, and he could very well be the best guy for the league's requirements. But I didn't have Thome anywhere near a mental Top 50. Howard, on his own, is a bit of a risk, too. PECOTA loves him, but I'd like to see a little more against lefties before I jump on-board. More likely than not, though, Howard is a Top 25 pick next year.

Round 6:

61. Death By Sexy - Barry Bonds
    
62. Academic All-Stars - Randy Johnson
    
63. Statutory Apes - Eric Chavez
    
64. Power Hour of Power - Brad Lidge
    
65. Boston Stranglers - Brandon Webb
    
66. The Dungeness Dragons - Huston Street
    
67. Nine Bill Muellers - Francisco Rodiguez
    
68. The Slumpers - Morgan Ensberg
    
69. The Slurves - Juan Pierre
    
70. Diamond Dawgs - Ken Griffey Jr.
    
71. Karate Explosion - Johnny Damon
    
72. Sons of Ed Sprague - Hank Blalock

I was a happy camper when Ensberg slipped to the 68th slot in the draft. He was a darkhorse MVP candidate last year and would have gotten more mention if Derrek Lee didn't become a Greek deity with a bat last year, and if Pujols was more hurt. There are a lot of very good third basemen in the league at this point... almost as many as good first basemen with the bat. Ensberg might be a drag as far as RBIs go because the Astros aren't going to score too many runs. But he was too good to pass up at 68.

Three closers went this time. F-Rod is one of the best when healthy, but everyone is scared about his mechanics. I've said it before: Lidge in '04 was unbelievable, and no one mentions it in the same breath as Gagne in '03. They were darn close.

The BEST pick, though, was undoubtedly grabbing Barry Bonds. In a league where walks count, if Bonds plays and is healthy, it's an ensured win in the BB category. Bonds is a risk at this point, but OFs do emerge throughout the season, and damn, is he a good risk to take.

I also wanted to murder Marc for taking Brandon Webb, who will be the beneficiary of Orlando Hudson's defense. I had him queued up for this pick.

I didn't take issue with any of these picks, and I liked the Griffey pick. Defense doesn't count here, and Griffey reestablished himself as an elite hitter last year.

Round 7:

73. Sons of Ed Sprague - Andy Pettitte
    
74. Karate Explosion - Marcus Giles
    
75. Diamond Dawgs - Trevor Hoffman
    
76. The Slurves - Jorge Cantu
    
77. The Slumpers - John Patterson
    
78. Nine Bill Muellers - Hideki Matsui
    
79. The DungennessDragons - Bartolo Colon
    
80. Boston Stranglers - Jim Edmonds
    
81. Power Hour of Power - Scott Podsednik
    
82. Statutory Apes - Jhonny Peralta
    
83. Academic All-Stars - Joe Nathan
    
84. Death By Sexy - B.J. Ryan

Patterson was a combination of what I see on TV and a mild focus on park factors this year. I love watching Patterson; he's got that old-fashioned late breaking curve and he's just dominant at times. He's a dramatic flyball pitcher in a park where homers go to die. I was happy that he survived this long.

The 7th round always seems to be the "he survived this long" round, actually... the AL Cy Young winnerr went, as did perenially undervalued Jim Edmonds. Jhonny Peralta, many people's MVP from last year, also got taken. But the best pick was Joe Nathan, the great closer with everything but the name recognition. The Podsednik pick was a nice grab of steals this late... I'm surprised that he fell this far. Must be a crowd o' statheads.

I like Marcus Giles as a player a lot, but he always manages to get hurt. If healthy, that's a great value pick.

Round 8:

85. Death By Sexy - Jason Schmidt
    
86. Academic All-Stars - Vernon Wells
    
87. Statutory Apes - Felipe Lopez
    
88. Power Hour of Power - John Smoltz
    
89. Boston Stranglers - John Lackey
    
90. The DungenessDragons - Barry Zito
    
91. Nine Bill Muellers - Pat Burrell
    
92. The Slumpers - J.D. Drew
    
93. The Slurves - Brett Myers
    
94. Diamond Dawgs - Brian Giles
    
95. Karate Explosion - Chad Cordero
    
96. Sons of Ed Sprague - Garrett Anderson

I have a little maxim in fantasy baseball: in rounds 8-12, you should take a risk, at least once. It's late enough so that you can compensate for it if it backfires, and it could be a huge boost for the fantasy team if it works out.

Which is why I took J.D. Drew, one of the game's most complete hitters WHEN HEALTHY, which is about as often as (insert name of socially awkward guy here) gets a date. Well, that and Statutory Apes and Boston Stranglers conspiring to keep the players I wanted away from me.

Speaking of Drew, I found it funny that Burrell and Drew, two players inexorably tied together by their Phillie draft histories, went back to back.

The best pick here was Felipe Lopez, who can play BOTH middle infield positions, I think, and will be pretty solid here.

The worst one was Brian Giles, but only because Diamond Dawgs will never survive if Marc Normandin ever acquires plutonium, anti-tank missiles, a revolver, or any other deadly weapon or substance. Otherwise? Solid.

Round 9:

97. Sons of Ed Sprague - Bobby Jenks
    
98. Karate Explosion - Cliff Lee
    
99. Diamond Dawgs - Freddy Garcia
    
100. The Slurves - A.J. Burnett
     
101. The Slumpers - Tim Hudson
     
102. Nine Bill Muellers - Josh Beckett
     
103. The DungenessDragons - Cliff Floyd
     
104. Boston Stranglers - Rickie Weeks (Die, Marc.)
     
105. Power Hour of Power - Scott Kazmir
     
106. Statutory Apes - Matt Holliday
     
107. Academic All-Stars - "Everyday Eddie" Guardado
     
108. Death By Sexy - Everyone's Favorite Father of Quintuplets and Potential Future President of Venezuela Melvin Mora

Go Mora! And I'm not being sarcastic or anything; I really like the guy.

Hudson was one of those "huh?" picks. I had no intention of drafting Hudson, but I saw him on the board and felt like it was too late to let him slide away.

I liked the Cliff Floyd pick a lot, because Floyd steals bases, and very few people remember that. He's part of that "risk-taking" aspect of these rounds. Kazmir is a volatile guy, who COULD be a Cy Young candidate this year... or he could have a consolidation year of sorts. Another nice risk.

I say "Die, Marc" because I wannted Rickie Weeks in the 10th round. But there are worse things (like not being able to locate Ian Kinsler and then seeing him drafted right after your last pick).

I worry about an implosion from Bobby Jenks, but, then again, he has a World Series ring and I don't. We'll see how he does this year.

Round 10:

109. Death By Sexy - J-Lo (Javy Lopez)
     
110. Academic All-Stars - Roger Clemens
     
111. Statutory Apes - Noah Lowry
     
112. Power Hour of Power - Troy Glaus
     
113. Boston Stranglers - Doug Davis
     
114. The Dungeness Dragons - Adrian Beltre
     
115. Nine Bill Muellers - Francisco Cordero
     
116. The Slumpers - Danny Haren
     
117. The Slurves - Curt Schilling
     
118. Diamond Dawgs - C.C. Sabathia
     
119. Karate Explosion - Jon Garland
     
120. Sons of Ed Sprague - Robinson Cano

TDD is countin' on a bounceback with Beltre, and it's certainly possible. It's really, really odd to see a guy put up one amazing season and then nothing else, but that's what it's basically been w/ Beltre. Still, if he is anywhere near the 2004 Beltre, this is a great value pick.

A handful of good pitchers here: I like Sabathia a lot. I was happy to grab Haren this low; I love the Oakland defense behind anybody, and this is my fourth starting pitcher already.

Schilling's another one in the risk category, but the biggest one is Clemens. Clemens is leaning towards retirement, but does anyone really believe him? He's deadweight on the roster for a month, but it might be worthwhile.

See what I mean by a bunch of third basemen? Glaus is a bona fida star in many aspects of the word, and he survived this late.

I don't like Cano very much, but there's no basis for that. He could be a pretty good second baseman this year.

Round 11:

121. Sons of Ed Sprague - Jeff Francoeur
     
122. Karate Explosion - Prince Fielder
     
123. Diamond Dawgs - Willy Taveras
     
124. The Slurves - Jose Contreras
     
125. The Slumpers - Jason Giambi
     
126. Nine Bill Muellers - Coco Crisp
     
127. The DungenessDragons - Kenjii Johjima
     
128. Boston Stanglers - Jorge Posada
     
129. Power Hour of Power - Izzy
     
130. Statutory Apes - Matt Cain
     
131. Academic All-Stars - Aubrey Huff
     
132. Death By Sexy - Sean Casey

The Prince of Power fell to 122, and he's one of the early frontrunners for ROY. I managed to snatch up Jason Giambi, calling an audible (I did not have him in mind at all in this draft). It was one of those "Yeah, I can take who I want here... or I can steal a ton of walks and total bases and such."

Great job by TDD and Boston Stranglers for snatching up a couple of catchers here (this won't be the last time I mention catchers), but Posada and Johjima were great picks at  this stage, I think. Statutory Apes must be a Giants fan; he took Lowry and Cain in back-to-back rounds. I can't blame him; they could be both very good this year.

I didn't like the Sean Casey selection, to be perfectly honest... I thought that there were a couple of better options on the board at the time, most notably Morneau, who went in the 12th, and Overbay, who fell all the way to pick #177 in the 15th. I think that he just got a bit unlucky, there, but Casey's move to Pittsburgh should ensure that he'll have a job this year. Which was questionable by midseason in Cincy.

Round 12:

133. Death By Sexy - Mark Mulder
     
134. Academic All-Stars - Julio Lugo
     
135. Statutory Apes - Kerry Wood
     
136. Power Hour of Power - Jeremy Bonderman
     
137. Boston Stranglers - Livan Hernandez
     
138. The DungennessDragons - Kevin Millwood
     
139. Nine Bill Muellers - Bobby Crosby
     
140. The Slumpers - Brad Wilkerson
     
141. The Slurves - Randy Winn
     
142. Diamond Dawgs - Omar Vizquel
     
143. Karate Explosion - Scott Rolen
     
144. Sons of Ed Sprague - Justin Morneau

I really liked the last two picks of this round. Scott Rolen was a .314/.409/.598 hitter in 2004 (which is undeniably his peak season), but he was a damn solid .286/.382/.528 in 2003, which is still very good for the third baseman from St. Louis. If he rebounds to 2003 levels post-injury, this is a steal. Morneau struggled last year, for various reasons, but seriously, the guy can rake. His translated 2004 season was around .268/.342/.541, for all levels (pretty much what he did at the big league level). Snatching him this late is a coup, especially if you can bench him.

My pick was Wilkerson, who fits into an SAT-style analogy with the following.

Brian Giles:Marc Normandin as
Brad Wilkerson:____.

A) Jim Bowden
B) Sgt. Shriver
C) Hot-Lips Houlihan
D) Keira Knightley
E) Dan Scotto

Using the first law of multiple choice tests, the answer is always C, it is clear that the answer is Hot-Lips Houlihan, from the famed, hit series M.A.S.H.

Marc nabbed innings eater and freak of nature Livan Hernandez in this round, and I really liked the Bobby Crosby pick (Harold Reynolds' MVP, I think).

Round 13:

Round 13-16 is officially the part of the draft where risk-taking is eschewed for "Oh, crap, I need to draft a ____." At least, in my mind.

145. Sons of Ed Sprague - Ervin Santana
     
146. Karate Explosion - Derrick Turnbow
     
147. Diamond Dawgs - Ronnie Belliard
     
148. The Slurves - Milton Bradley
     
149. The Slumpers - Erik Bedard
     
150. Nine Bill Muellers - Ramon Hernandez
     
151. The DungennessDragons - Keith Foulke
     
152. Boston Stranglers - Brian Roberts
     
153. Power Hour of Power - Joe Blanton
     
154. Statutory Apes - Jeremy Hermida
     
155. Academic All-Stars - Jon Leiber
     
156. Death By Sexy - Torii Hunter

I take pride in the fact that I started a little "mini-run on Orioles," by grabbing Erik Bedard. I determined earlier that I was taking one of the two potential "Mazzone Miracles" here, but I decided to stick by my guns and go with what I wrote in the preview article for them. I thought he was a safer option than Cabrera, whose potential range of outcomes is a lot larger.

Turnbow's survival was the gain of Karate Explosion, who wisely added one of the NL's best closers last year. If the Brewers are planning on making a run for the playoffs this year, Turnbow could get a lot of saves. Hermida's a fun pick because everyone loves the guy, and we know he's going to play. His cup of coffee last year was the equivalent of a tall mocha frappuccino: very tasty but not enough to know for sure if you like it. Enough certainly to use a 13th rounder on him. Hermida could be in the Top 20 next year, if he breaks out this year. I wouldn't bet on it, but I like the pick either way.

TDD keeps coming up with picks that I like. Foulke is one of the best closers in the game, and last year was his first down year in a while. A team with a healthy Foulke as a closer would be fine there.

Round 14:

157. Death By Sexy - Geoff Jenkins
     
158. Academic All-Stars - Brian Fuentes
     
159. Statutory Apes - Chris Young
     
160. Power Hour of Power - Jonny Gomes
     
161. Boston Stranglers - Carlos Silva
     
162. The DungennessDragons - Zach Duke
     
163. Nine Bill Muellers - Aaron Rowand
     
164. The Slumpers - Chad Orvella
     
165. The Slurves - Todd Jones
     
166. Diamond Dawgs - Esteban Loaiza
     
167. Karate Explosion - Jake Westbrook
     
168. Sons of Ed Sprague - Brenden Donnelly

Lots of things going on in this round:

• The first Rockies pitcher was selected.
  
• Carlos Sliva, the man who shattered control records last year, went off the board.
  
• One of the most intriguing young pitchers, Zach Duke, was selected.
  
• The first non-closer reliever was selected.
  
• I picked my first closer.

Fuentes is inherently dangerous because he pitches at Coors, but it's late enough to take a flier on him. I honestly worry about the Silva pick. I love a guy who doesn't walk people, but what kind of margin for error does he have, at this point? Where is his room for improvement?

Donnelly is an excellent "first-reliever" off the board with the injury risk on F-Rod. On his own, he's a great reliever (I picked him up in leagues to replace Gagne last year). Scot Shields would have also fit the bill here. I also liked the Loaiza pick; he's a safe bet to get some innings and a bunch of wins with the A's.

For me, I took Orvella because I love a mediocre-player turned pitcher. Except Victor Zambrano.

Round 15:

169. Sons of Ed Sprague - Nick Swisher
     
170. Karate Explosion - Chris Capuano
     
171. Diamond Dawgs - Joey Devine
     
172. The Slurves - Edgar Renteria
     
173. The Slumpers - Mark Ellis
     
174. Nine Bill Muellers - Ryan Freel
     
175. The DungennessDragons - Tadihito Iguchi
     
176. Boston Stranglers - Brad Radke
     
177. Power Hour of Power - Lyle Overbay
     
178. Statutory Apes - Javier Vazquez
     
179. Academic All-Stars - Tom Gordon
     
180. Death By Sexy - Greg Maddux

This was an "Oh Shoot" selection from me (as Phil Simms would say). I didn't have a second baseman, so I boiled it down to three candidates: Ellis, Freel, and Iguchi. Amusingly, they all went in succession. I like Freel better but I trust that Ellis will have a role this year.

Vazquez' peripherals were better than his actual numbers last year, so we'll see what that means for '06. Devine's a good pick at this point; he could be closing for the Braves at some point. Capuano's a forgotten man of sorts, but he's a pretty good pick at this point (he won 18 games last year, which was completely amazing and unexpected). I like the Overbay pick this late. Solid 1B in the 15th. Maddux this late was another one. We often undervalue the aged population, and Brian Sabean capitalizes on this (although he goes too far, most definitely).

Not liking the Tom Gordon pick, am I, but I worry about Phillies signings and, more importantly, aging relievers-turned-closers.

Round 16:

181. Death By Sexy - Nick Johnson
     
182. Academic All-Stars - Ryan Dempster
     
183. Statutory Apes - Chris Ray
     
184. Power Hour of Power - Mike Gonzalez
     
185. Boston Stranglers - Aaron Harang
     
186. The DungennessDragons - Dan Johnson
     
187. Nine Bill Muellers - Francisco Liriano
     
188. The Slumpers - Armando Benitez
     
189. The Slurves - Jose Valverde
     
190. Diamond Dawgs - Bill Mueller
     
191. Karate Explosion - Bob Wickman
     
192. Sons of Ed Sprague - Justin "The Duke" Duchscherer

Shame on Statutory Apes, who stole Chris Ray from me in the 16th and forced me to select Armando Benitez, whose strikeout rate is plummeting faster than (insert topical reference here, although the Bush Approval Rating one is a little dated and overplayed).

Diamond Dawgs again messed with the "way of the league," first by taking Giles and risking his own life, and now by taking Mueller and not making Mueller be drafted by Nine Bill Muellers.

Nick Johnson was a steal here and I would have taken him earlier, but I had no room for him :(. Also good pick: Francisco Liriano, who is drawing rave reviews at the WBC. Wickman led the league in saves last year, but my money's on Fernando Cabrera closing some games by mid-August. I'm hoping for that, at least.

Round 17:

193. Sons of Ed Sprague - Brandon McCarthy
     
194. Karate Explosion - Derek Lowe
     
195. Diamond Dawgs - Chad Qualls
     
196. The Slurves - Benji Molina
     
197. The Slumpers - Brad Penny
     
198. Nine Bill Muellers - Scott Linebrink
     
199. The DungennessDragons - Jason Lane
     
200. Boston Stranglers - J.J. Hardy
     
201. Power Hour of Power - Jermaine Dye
     
202. Statutory Apes - Scot Shields
     
203. Academic All-Stars - Michael Barrett
     
204. Death by Sexy - Jeff Weaver

I have here in my hand a list of 192 people that were known to have been selected ahead of Brandon McCarthy, who was a pretty solid pick here in his own right. Late enough for the flier on another young pitcher. (I was hoping that McCarthy made it to pick #206, but it wasn't meant to be). I took Penny this round because of my faith in Paul Depodesta and because I think that Penny's actually a really good pitcher.

Guys like Jermaine Dye always seem to survive to late rounds and they always seem to be great picks. Dye's a consistent outfielder but isn't remarkable enough for anyone, besides a fan of his team, to want to take him with a higher pick. Nice find there.

Linebrink and Shields are similar picks: both candidates to pick up some saves if their elite closers go down. I like Shields a little better than Linebrink, myself.

Jason Lane was very high up on the Yahoo list, for some reason, after many years of toiling for a well-earned job. I think he'll do better this year, but I wasn't prepared to pick him. The 17th round seems like a good spot for Lane and his .274/.340/.491 PECOTA projection.

Round 18:

205. Death By Sexy - Moose
     
206. Academic All-Stars - Kevin Mench
     
207. Statutory Apes - Daniel Cabrera
     
208. Power Hour of Power - Jarrod Washburn
     
209. Boston Stranglers - Placido Polanco
     
210. The DungennessDragons - Nomah Garciaparra
     
211. Nine Bill Muellers - Mark Loretta
     
212. The Slumpers - Fernando Cabrera
     
213. The Slurves - Garrett Atkins Diet
     
214. Diamond Dawgs - David Wells
     
215. Karate Explosion - Matt Morris
     
216. Sons of Ed Sprague - Carlos Guillen

Great find at the bottom of the round for Sons of Ed Sprague, who remembered that Guillen was just a year removed from being a fantasy god: .318/.379/.542 with 12 steals. He was hurt last year but still managed to hit .320. We'll see if he can repeat that again.

Mike Mussina at the top of the round was also a really good pick; the Moose is a lock for a bunch of wins, if nothing else. The Atkins Diet pick was solid, but it might be worth considering only playing him when he's at home.

My pick? Well, it was certainly the biggest reach of the round; the guy's only thrown 30 big league innings. I love the guy, though, and I think that Bob Wickman might not be closing by July. Somebody take him out to dinner, please...

Finally, the Daniel Cabrera pick was solid because of the potential for a Mazzone-led resurrection. I was pondering taking him when I took Bedard, and that was a long time ago.

Round 19:

217. Sons of Ed Sprague - Magglio Ordonez
     
218. Karate Explosion - Jason Kendall
     
219. Diamond Dawgs - David Eckstein
     
220. The Slurves - Shea Hillenbrand
     
221. The Slumpers - Jason LaRue
     
222. Nine Bill Muellers - Kelvim Escobar
     
223. The DungennessDragons - Matt Clement
     
224. Boston Stranglers - Aaron Heilman
     
225. Power Hour of Power - Oliver Perez
     
226. Statutory Apes - Chris Reitsma
     
227. Academic All-Stars - Joe Borowski
     
228. Death By Sexy - Mike Timlin

Well, the LaRue pick was dumb because I completely forgot about one Josh Willingham, who would have been the perfect backup catcher for the fantasy ballclub. On its own, I'm OK with it; LaRue won't kill me if Varitek goes down.

Oliver Perez? He's a bounceback candidate, and you've gotta love all those strikeouts. He DID fan 239 in 196 innings in 2004. Last year was kind of a lost season for him, though. Worthy pick at this point.

Heilman was one of the three best relievers in the game in the second half last year, so we'll see if his game plays every five days this year. Good pick because of the option to play him in the relief slot.

Reitsma's closing for the Braves, I think, so that's solid at this point (Devine went a few rounds earlier). Not as fond of the Jason Kendall pick, and, unfortunately for Shea Hillenbrand, HBP doesn't count in this league.

Round 20:

229. Death By Sexy - Paul Byrd
     
230. Academic All-Stars - Luis Castillo
     
231. Statutory Apes - Scott Baker
     
232. Power Hour of Power - Aaron Hill
     
233. Boston Stranglers - Brandon Inge
     
234. The DungennessDragons - Tom Glavine
     
235. Nine Bill Muellers - Josh Towers
     
236. The Slumpers - Bill Hall
     
237. The Slurves - Shawn Green
     
238. Diamond Dawgs - Aaron Boone
     
239. Karate Explosion - Rocco Baldelli
     
240. Sons of Ed Sprague - Chien-Ming Wang

The fact that Wang lasted until the 20th round signifies that there are no Yankee fans in this draft. Although I might be wrong about that. We'll see what happens with Wang, who was very good last year for the Yankees even with a strikeout rate that resembled his G/F ratio.

Castillo's a nice pick this late; he walks a lot, hits for average, and will log a few steals. I'd consider starting him at second (if I'd taken him) even though I have Mark Ellis.

My pick was Bill Hall, who was very good for the Beermen last year but might not have a place to play this year. I'm banking on him finding somewhere to play, and I like his positional flexibility.

I was initially pretty down on the Aaron Boone selection, but it turns out that after the first two months, he settled into a reasonable season for a third baseman. It's a safe bet that he wasn't entirely healed from his terrible offseason basketball injury, so he might hold off Andy Marte longer than I thought.

Aaron Hill and Josh Towers are from the American League's sexiest pick (the Blue Jays). Hill's not spectacular but I don't think he'll be terrible this year (it's too bad defense doesn't count in some form, huh), but Towers' '05 looks like an aberration, especially with a worse defense behind him. Still, there are certainly worse arms to bank on, and at this point, it's OK to take fliers on guys. You can always cut them early on.

Round 21:

241. Sons of Ed Sprague - Jesse Crain
     
242. Karate Explosion - Jose Vidro
     
243. Diamond Dawgs - Mike Piazza
     
244. The Slurves - Mike MacDougal
     
245. The Slumpers - Ryan Zimmerman
     
246. Nine Bill Muellers - A.J. Pierzynski
     
247. The DungennessDragons - Yuniesky Betancourt
     
248. Boston Stranglers - Dan Wheeler
     
249. Power Hour of Power - Andy Marte
     
250. Statutory Apes - Josh Willingham
     
251. Academic All-Stars - Mike Sweeney
     
252. Death by Sexy - Jason Marquis

Piazza and Marte were solid picks in this round, as was Dan Wheeler with Houston, but the real steal here was Willingham, who was a monstrous hitter in the minors last year and would probably be an acceptable starter at catcher for most fantasy teams. Good find this late.

I snagged Zimmerman b/c of an optimistic PECOTA, but, more importantly, I liked the fact that he had a job. Marte's better and in less of a terrible environment for hitters... but I don't know when Marte will play.

MacDougal will probably close out the 17 or so opportunities he gets with the Royals. But he's a good pitcher, certainly. His value might go up if the Royals deal him at the deadline.

Round 22:

253. Death By Sexy - Jorge Sosa
     
254. Academic All-Stars - Kenny Rogers
     
255. Statutory Apes - Ryan Madson
     
256. Power Hour of Power - Jon "Craig" Papelbon
     
257. Boston Stranglers - Luis Gonzalez
     
258. The DungennessDragons - Terry Tiffee
     
259. Nine Bill Muellers - Craig Hansen
     
260. The Slumpers - Juan Uribe
     
261. The Slurves - Craig Counsell
     
262. Diamond Dawgs - Kyle Farnsworth
     
263. Karate Explosion - Brian Lawrence
     
264. Sons of Ed Sprague - Orlando Cabrera

A hearty bit of profanity to Statutory Apes, who stole Ryan Madson out of my queue. Madson was my version of Heilman: a guy who might be starting that would qualify as an RP for the season.

Juan Uribe was my selection, mainly because Furcal could be hurt and Hall could be on the bench. I have a proverbial glut of middle infielders now, and I might address that somehow. Free agency or trades await.

Karate Explosion took Brian Lawrence, but Lawrence no longer has a functioning pitching arm, so that might be problematic. Lawrence was a good pick otherwise, too; good park and a nice innings guy.

Terry Tiffee's name got thrown around the draft room a lot, for some odd reason. OK with me to use a pick this late on him...

Jorge Sosa was amazing last year, and so Death By Sexy did well to take him here. I don't know where he fits in with the Braves THIS year, but I'll assume he nabs a spot in the rotation. Good late round pick there.

Round 23:

265. Sons of Ed Sprague - Mark Kotsay
     
266. Karate Explosion - Rafael Betancourt
     
267. Diamond Dawgs - Rafael Soriano
     
268. The Slurves - Danys Baez
     
269. The Slumpers - Ramon Ortiz
     
270. Nine Bill Muellers - Jose Guillen
     
271. The DungennessDragons - Raul Ibanez
     
272. Boston Stranglers - Brian McCann
     
273. Power Hour of Power - Brady Clark
     
274. Statutory Apes - Clint Barmes
     
275. Academic All-Stars - Pedro Feliz
     
276. Death By Sexy - Ryan Church

I was in a spot where I simply didn't know who to take here, so I settled on Ramon Ortiz in his new pitcher-friendly home. Brady Clark was good here; we'll see if he's really as solid as he played last year. Also liked: Rafael Soriano, a pitcher in the vein of Fernando Cabrera, just selected much later.

Brian McCann was similar to Willingham as far as going after a lesser-known catcher who will probably be as good as the established guys.

Pedro Feliz carried me in fantasy when my entire team went down with injuries. And when Eric Chavez sucked to start out the season.

Clint Barmes is another player who really isn't very good but is helped out a ton by his home park. It helps in fantasy, and it works out here, if he's healthy.

Baez would have gone about 6-7 rounds earlier if he was still in Tampa, and he's a saves guy if Gagne gets hurt. That said, I don't like him much on his own.

Two more of these...

Round 24:

277. Death By Sexy - David Bush
     
278. Academic All-Stars - Dustin Hermanson
     
279. Statutory Apes - David Weathers
     
280. Power Hour of Power - Conor Jackson
     
281. Boston Stranglers - Jae Seo
     
282. The DungennessDragons - Chris Shelton
     
283. Nine Bill Muellers - Paul Lo Duca
     
284. The Slumpers - Wily Mo Pena
     
285. The Slurves - Tim Wakefield
     
286. Diamond Dawgs - Julio Franco
     
287. Karate Explosion - B.J. Upton
     
288. Sons of Ed Sprague - Arthur Rhodes

This was my happiest moment of the draft; I'd completely forgotten about my outfield, and I only had 3 guys who could play out there. Then I saw Pena right around pick #275, and I just kept my fingers crossed that he'd survive.

Conor Jackson's a statheady prospect, and we'll see if the D'Backs fit him in. The guy can certainly hit, and he's in a good hitters' park.

Marc is banking on the improvement shown by Jae Seo to be real. I'd say that he's middle of the rotation good this year, and that's not bad for the 24th round.

Julio Franco's not going to get much playing time with the Mets, but he SHOULD be drafted in every league, just as a token gesture.

Round 25:

289. Sons of Ed Sprague - Yadier Molina
     
290. Karate Explosion - Bruce Chen
     
291. Diamond Dawgs - Craig Biggio
     
292. The Slurves - Angel Berroa
     
293. The Slumpers - Kris Benson
     
294. Nine Bill Muellers - Ian Kinsler
     
295. The DungennessDragons - Bobby Howry
     
296. Boston Stranglers - Shawn Chacon
     
297. Power Hour of Power - Alexis Rios
     
298. Statutory Apes - Justin Verlander
     
299. Academic All-Stars - Adam Everett
     
300. Death By Sexy - Jason Vargas

I liked the Bruce Chen pick! It's hard to root against him. More amazingly, though, is that four Oriole starters got selected out of 300 players. We're all anxious to see how Mazzone does in Baltimore.

My pick was a tossup between Chacon and Benson, but I decided to let Marc have Chacon and to see if his hypothesis about Chacon and BABIP is OK.

Verlander is the most talented of all of the hurlers to get drafted here.

Actually, I'm quite annoyed, because my plan, all along, had been to leave second base open and then snag Ian Kinsler late. But Kinsler wasn't on the ranked Yahoo list... apparently, they don't rank every player; they just rank most of them. The other guys are available in the alphabetical list. I should have figured this out.

So, obviously, I really liked the Kinsler pick here.

I had fun with this draft, and I hope you enjoyed reading my draft musings. I tried not to be too harsh, even though I'm sure my writing comes across that way. I definitely think that this was the strongest group that I've ever drafted with, which is bad, because I'm really not very good at fantasy baseball (the best I've ever finished in a league is 3rd).

I hope I've inspired someone to join a fantasy league with a live draft somewhere; they're a lot more fun than getting an offline draft or just a random team. There's less trading, but there's more immediate input.

Enjoy the season!