We thought it would be interesting to look at the difference in fan perception and objective reality. To do this, we'll be using two rather inexact measures: fan votes and mid-season WARP1. The group chosen for this quick exercise is, as suggested by the above title, NL Outfielders.
We'll begin with the Top 15 vote-getters and then compare that to the Top 15 by WARP1.
| Player | WARP |
|---|---|
| Jim Edmonds, SLN | 4.9 |
| Bobby Abreu, PHI | 5.2 |
| Carlos Beltran, NYN | 2.1 |
| Miguel Cabrera, FLO | 4.9 |
| Larry Walker, SLN | 1.7 |
| Andruw Jones, ATL | 5.1 |
| Ken Griffey Jr., CIN | 2.6 |
| Reggie Sanders, SLN | 2.7 |
| Jeromy Burnitz, CHN | 3.4 |
| Carlos Lee, MIL | 3.3 |
| Corey Patterson, CHN | 1.3 |
| Pat Burrell, PHI | 2.8 |
| Cliff Floyd, NYN | 4.4 |
| Milton Bradley, LAN | 3.2 |
| J.D. Drew, LAN | 4.4 |
| Player | WARP |
|---|---|
| Bobby Abreu, PHI | 5.2 |
| Brian Giles, SDN | 5.2 |
| Andruw Jones, ATL | 5.1 |
| Jason Bay, PIT | 5 |
| Jim Edmonds, SLN | 4.9 |
| Miguel Cabrera, FLO | 4.9 |
| J.D. Drew, LAN | 4.4 |
| Cliff Floyd, NYN | 4.4 |
| Brady Clark, MIL | 4 |
| Matt Lawton, PIT | 4 |
| Adam Dunn, CIN | 3.8 |
| Luis Gonzalez, ARI | 3.5 |
| Jeromy Burnitz, CHN | 3.4 |
| Carlos Lee, MIL | 3.3 |
| Brad Wilkerson, WAS | 3.3 |
Based on the above totals, it would seem that fans voting for the All-Star Game tend to value a few things over performance. In particular, playing your home games in St. Louis or Chicago seems to outweigh all other variables.
Other non-performance related factors that propel players toward garnering massive numbers of votes are being good last year (Beltran), lending your name to sub-par video games (Griffey), being the second best outfielder on your own team (Lee, Beltran & Griffey) and being named after a maker of fine board games (Bradley).
There also appear to be a number of factors that can cost you votes. Among them are having an award for unheralded greatness named after you (Giles), playing for Pittsburgh (Bay & Lawton), being the best outfielder on your own team (Drew, Clark, Floyd & Dunn) and being one of the best players on a first-place ball club in the West or East (Giles & Wilkerson).
Why do they let us vote anyway? Please share any other amusing trends you notice in the comments. Thanks and have a happy and safe Fourth of July.