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Nevin to the O's...I think

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Phil Nevin is leaving the Padres (possibly) and heading to Baltimore for Sidney Ponson. In a separate move, Joe Randa was brought in to play third base, and Sean Burroughs was demoted to Triple-A to work on his offense. Let's check out the repercussions using Net Runs Above Average.

We can see that Nady is roughly 10.5 runs above average better than Nevin over the course of the remaining 64 games this season. If he turns in a better offensive performance (and defensive thanks to the ability to concentrate on one position rather than six of them) then this positional switch looks even sweeter. I know Richard has been beating the Nady drum (and hoping to beat on Nevin) for a long time now, so kudos to the Pads if this deal works out.

As for Randa verse Burroughs, let's take a look at the research Richard did on Friar Faithful:

I like the acquisition of Randa a lot. I'm not terribly pleased that we had to trade Travis Chick to get him, but I like that we got him. He's a substantial upgrade at third base.

Padre Third Baseman by NRAA/64:
Randa 15.21
Nady 9.47
Blum 2.79
Burroughs -7.67

The first thing I noticed was that Geoff Blum is better according to NRAA than Sean Burroughs. Which can only mean one thing; Sean Burroughs needs this stop at Triple-A more than we might have realized. God bless that poor boy.

I'll let Richard talk about Travis Chick, as I'm sure he knows more of this than I do.

Update [2005-7-24 23:57:00 by Richard B. Wade]: I guess I'm supposed to talk about Chick. He's a hard thrower. He throws strikes. He projects well. I'm rather unhappy he's gone. I understand my Padres could have had Randa for just Germano, but sat on their hands and were then forced to sweeten the deal with Chick. That makes me even less happy.

As for how Ponson affects the Padres rotation, let's take a peak.

Ponson is obviously not worth his salary, but note the high BABIP. Baseball Prospectus has his BABIP at .359, and I'm not really sure why that is. A few of the BABIP's match up perfectly with BP's, but a few do not. Any idea as to why? I'm using BABIP = (H-HR)/(3*IP+(H-HR)-K). I used to use 2.75 rather than 3, but 3 matches up with BP's numbers better for the most part.

Back to Ponson's performance, just by going to San Diego he should improve significantly thanks to the presence of a pitcher's park. Throw in the fact that his BABIP should go down (odd note: Baltimore and San Diego are ranked 19th and 20th respectively in defensive effiency; I wonder if Ponson has just had some plain old bad luck at times this year, causing the high BABIP?) and Ponson should be atleast serviceable until Adam Eaton can return from the Disabled List. I would not want to be going into the playoffs with Sidney Ponson as a member of my rotation, but as a fill in (and salary dump of Nevin, with the net increase runs scored and prevented by using Nady) he works quite nicely, and should help right the Padres ship.

Update [2005-7-24 13:48:48 by Marc Normandin]: I have to know if Ponson is being beaten silly or if his defense is failing him.

BABIP
Bedard: .278
Chen: .283
Cabrera: .282
Lopez: .279
Ponson: .359

Ponson could in all honesty just be getting the cork hit out of the ball against him to all fields. Or he is really unlucky. I think I'm leaning towards the former, but you never know. I'd need to have watched a bunch of starts to know myself. I asked SC from Camden Chat (An SB Nation site) if Ponson was getting the hell beat out of him or if he was unlucky. His response:

His biggest thing that's just an observation, and Ray Miller said this recently too, is he tries to man up against hitters with his 91-92 MPH fastball. They just tee off on him eventually; whatever stuff he had before isn't there this year.

Looks like its getting the hell beat out of him.