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Brian Giles Career Retrospective

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I was fooling around with some WARP3 scores and other DT Card stats yesterday, and noticed something very interesting to me. Brian Giles Peak WARP score is well above the average Hall of Fame Left Fielder and also outfielders in general. This is very interesting to me for a few reasons:

  1. Brian Giles is probably my second favorite player behind Tim Wakefield.
  2. Giles was one of the most underated baseball stars during his peak, underated at a Bobby Abreu-esque level.
  3. Who considers Brian Giles a Hall of Fame candidate?
I know Giles is not a Hall of Fame candidate now; he only has the peak, not the career value necessary to enter Cooperstown. But he is in his age 34 season now, and playing better than he has since 2003 in Pittsburgh. What happens if he pads his career value enough to make a case for Cooperstown? He did not get to play everyday until he was 28 years old, and he has amassed a WARP3 score of 60.0 since then. Thats over 9 wins a year in value from a player, which is a Hall Worthy Peak. Let's take a look at his career numbers so far before making any kinds of predictions:

Brian Giles 1995-2005
Career WARP3: 73.0
Peak WARP: 48.2
JAWS: 60.6
BRAR: 518
BRAA: 377
FRAA: 15

We can see from his BRAA that most of his value is tied up in his peak value, but to be fair, his peak has been his entire career outside of 2004 and 2005, and the years he did not play much before that. It is also not a peak to be taken lightly; it is above the average Hall of Fame outfielders peak, and his JAWS score is only 12.7 points away from qualifying for left even with the lower career value. Let's take a look at Left Field Hall of Fame DT Stats:

Career WARP3: 103.8
Peak WARP: 42.8
JAWS: 73.3
BRAR: 694
BRAA: 445
FRAA: -8

Giles currently has a 23.2 VORP (0.01 ahead of Jason Bay; funny huh?) and a hitting line of .284/.413/.510. If he can keep that up for the season he should have another 8-9 win season added on to his career resume. Let's do a little hypothetical analysis of what Giles has to do if he plays til he is 39 or 40 years old to be eligible for Cooperstown.

Age 34: 9 WARP3 (70 BRAR, 50 BRAA)
Age 35: 8 WARP3 (60 BRAR, 40 BRAA)
Age 36: 7.5 WARP3 (55 BRAR, 35 BRAA)
Age 37: 6.5 WARP3 (50 BRAR, 30 BRAA)
Age 38: 5.5 WARP3 (40 BRAR, 20 BRAA)
Age 39: 5.5 WARP3 (40 BRAR, 20 BRAA)
Age 40: 3.7 WARP3 (22 BRAR, 12 BRAA)

These are just rough estimates, sketches if you will, of his BRAR and BRAA. I know I did not get the exact figures correct, but it is just meant to be a guide. If you think 6.5 is not attainable for Giles, take a look at his 2004 season:

.284/.374/.475
HR: 23
2B: 33
BB: 89
WARP3: 6.2

So even if you think the numbers I have given Giles are generous, and you think they should all be a point lower or so, he is still overqualified for the Hall at that point. Let's see the results for his Hall-worthiness with the above hypothetical thought mixed in:

Career WARP3: 118.7
Peak WARP: 48.2
JAWS: 83.45
BRAR: 855
BRAA: 652

I did not bother figuring his FRAA solely because it fluctuates badly at times, and left fielders average a score of -8.

If you subtract 10 WARP3 from the totals (a little taken off from each year of the hypothetical career line) he still ends up with a JAWS score of 78.45...take 20 off, and he ends up at 73.45...just above the threshold of the average Hall of Fame left fielder. The point of me setting the bar so high for him for the next few seasons is for me to show that if he does not have to be an all-star caliber player for the next 6 years to pad his stats and make a case for the Hall; he basically just has to continue to play 5 win a season ball for 4 years after this year. Another 8 Win season would help the cause greatly. I've always hoped he'd be a Hall of Famer someday, since I liked him even when he was the enemy of the Red Sox by playing on the dreaded Cleveland Indians of the late 1990's, so if this happens I'll be the happiest owner of a cat named Brian Giles around...

...Yes, I have a cat named Brian Giles.