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Minky and Petagine

According to Peter Gammons, the Mets might have some interest in trading for Roberto Petagine to play first base. I think this would help the team out greatly, but we can see exactly how much using MLVr (Marginal Lineup Value Rate) and plugging in Petagine and Minky's figures into the Mets team averages to see just how much better Petagine may be. Let's check out their Net Runs first.

Mientkiewicz
MLVr: -0.093
Rate: 109

Petagine (2005 PECOTA)
MLVr: .045
Rate: N/A

Minky
-.093* 100 G = -9.3 + 9 = -.3 R/100 G = -.003 R/G

Petagine
.045* 100 G = 4.5 + 0 = 4.5 R/100 G = .045 R/G

Petagine has not played defense in the majors since 1998, so I had a rough time getting his defensive stats. After using Richard Wade's formula for Established Level of Performance, Petagine's figure was roughly 102, but I adjusted it to 100 to make him league average due to aging. That way, we don't take away or add too much to Petagine's value. If you look at the statistics above, it looks as if Petagine would be a big upgrade even if he did not field at a Rate of 100. Let's check out their numbers after plugging them into the MLVr formula.

With Doug Mientkiewicz in the lineup, the Mets batting line looks like this:

.259/.326/.416
Runs: 756

With 2005 PECOTA Petagine in the lineup rather than Mientkiewicz, the Mets would score this many runs:

W/Petagine: 771 Runs

That 771 is with Doug Mientkiewicz's averages in the lineup; take him out and the effect would be greater. I don't think they would stop playing Minky altogether though, so I didn't want to subtract him fully from the equation. Even if Petagine is slightly below average this may be a trade that the Mets want to make, because there is a good chance he won't cost them 15 runs defensively over the course of a season, which is the difference between the lineups. Remember, this is Petagine with his Weighten Mean projection. Have you seen his Triple-A numbers this year?

.329/.441/.671
AB: 155
HR: 12
2B: 13
3B: 2
SB: 0/1
BB: 30
SecAvg: .529
Iso: .342

I don't expect him to put up those numbers in the majors, but he definitely looks like he is capable of putting up his 60th or 75th percentile PECOTA projection (.280/.373/.445 and .295/.391/.469 respectively) which would increase the runs scored total greatly. How many more runs would the Mets score if Petagine was at his 75th percentile? 777, a total of 21 more than with Minky in the lineup. Again, remember Minky is included in that formula, so the total would be greater if he were subtracted entirely. I think the Mets should make a move for him; he won't be expensive, and the Mets should try to do something to make themselves a better team. 2006 is the year to some people, but if Petagine can handle the majors (and I have faith that he will) than they got themselves an extremely capable first basemen for next year, and they might make it back to the top of the standings this year as well.