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NL Roundup

By Marc Normandin

For those of you new to my online writing, I do an AL and NL Roundup every other week; this week it is the NL's turn, and next week will be the AL. I do this to space out the happenings in the league, and allow trends to develop. The run environment in the NL still isn't close to 4 runs per game, although the American League run environment is quickly approaching that figure. Clay Danveport tells us that the pythagenport formula is stable from 4-40 runs per game.

NL East Actual

  1. Atlanta 18-11 (.621) 129 RS, 99 RA
  2. Florida 16-10 (.615) 129 RS, 77 RA
  3. Washington 16-13 (.552) 126 RS, 125 RA
  4. New York 16-14 (.533) 141 RS, 134 RA
  5. Philadelphia 13-17 (.433) 122 RS, 148 RA
NL East Pythagenport
  1. Florida 137-25 (.846)
  2. Atlanta 114-48 (.705)
  3. New York 88-74 (.543)
  4. Washington 82-80 (.505)
  5. Philadelphia 55-107 (.342)
Florida's projected record is a tad higher than they will end up, but just know that they actually are playing much better than everyone in the division. Of course, Atlanta is doing very well themselves; the pitching might not be as good as it has shown (Tim Hudson and John Smoltz have extremely low BABIP so far, and I'm never sure about Mike Hampton) but the hitting is nowhere near this poor, so they should be capable of staying in the race all year as always. If they bring up Andy Marte or make a trade to upgrade the corner outfield spots, their offense will improve immediately. New York and Washington looks about right to be honest; New York is capable of 90 wins, but somethings have to fall into place for that to happen. Philadelphia is the only team I think is underperforming their projection, because this is basically the same team as before (actually an improved version...what is going on in Philly?)

NL Central Actual

  1. St. Louis 18-10 (.643) 135 RS, 112 RA
  2. Milwaukee 14-14 (.500) 133 RS, 118 RA
  3. Chicago 12-16 (.429) 133 RS, 133 RA
  4. Pittsburgh 11-17 (.393) 95 RS, 144 RA
  5. Houston 11-17 (.393) 119 RS, 118 RA
  6. Cincinnati 10-18 (.357) 124 RS, 166 RA
NL Central Pythagenport
  1. St. Louis 106-56 (.652)
  2. Milwaukee 97-65 (.600)
  3. Houston 82-80 (.507)
  4. Chicago 81-81 (.500)
  5. Cincinnati 43-119 (.266)
  6. Pittsburgh 32-136 (.199)
To be completely honest, the only complaint I honestly have with these projections is the fact that Cincinnati has such a poor record. I see them winning 70 games, but I guess you never know how much your pitching can hurt you sometimes. Their offense is better than this, and the pitching might not actually be this poor, but I don't see them rising above 70 wins, especially with the poor start. Milwaukee's 97 wins seems high, but I can realistically see them reaching 90. They are a much better team than people give them credit for, and the only reason I had them picked for third place is because I expected a healthy Cubs team. Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins have not really hit their stride yet, so if that team can start to hit as a whole (and have a healthy Russ Branyan all the time, All Hail the Three True Outcomes!) then they can really put something together. Remember, they just had a 7-game win streak without Ben Sheets, who is possibly the best pitcher in that division, nevermind team. St. Louis' 106 win projection will be weaker than their 105 wins last year I think, due to the weakening of the entire division with the exception of Milwaukee.

NL West Actual

  1. Los Angeles 18-10 (.643) 149 RS, 119 RA
  2. Arizona 18-12 (.600) 136 RS, 137 RA
  3. San Diego 16-14 (.533) 136 RS, 130 RA
  4. San Francisco 14-14 (.500) 141 RS, 145 RA
  5. Colorado 6-20 (.231) 118 RS, 161 RA
NL West Pythagenport
  1. Los Angeles 111-51 (.683)
  2. San Diego 87-75 (.538)
  3. Arizona 80-82 (.494)
  4. San Francisco 77-85 (.476)
  5. Colorado 41-121 (.252)
Sad to say if your a Rockies fan, or an Arizona fan hoping for the division, but this looks about right. If Bonds can come back in time I see Arizona and San Francisco switching places, but the longer he is out the more of a lead Los Angeles can build. The Padres outfielders are much better than their numbers so far, so give them time to turn it around and make this projection look realistic. Jake Peavy might be the best pitcher in that division nowadays (sorry Jason Schmidt), so watch any games with him if you can catch them.

Unlike the American League, whose divisions seem to be entirely confused, the pythagenport records in the NL give a good view of what the final standings could look like, with the exceptions being Philly isn't that bad and the Marlins are not that good. Atlanta also is not going to run away with 114 wins, but a Wild Card berth or division title is possible as always.

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