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Trade Analysis - Marlon Byrd / Endy Chavez

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Three posts in one day for me? This torrid pace can't keep up, but I like breaking down trades.

Philadelphia Phillies trade OF Marlon Byrd to the Washington Nationals in exchange for OF Endy Chavez.

Once thought of as one of the Phillies' top prospects, they finally cut ties, sending him to the Nats for Endy Chavez.

There's a big difference between the flaws of the two hitters. But the simplest way to compare the two:

  • Marlon Byrd has some ability.
  • Endy Chavez really doesn't.
This deal is relatively inconsequential, but Frank Robinson, earlier in the year, decided that Endy Chavez didn't get on-base enough to be the team's leadoff man again (very statheady of the manager who claims not to use a computer). Chavez got sent down. Byrd had a down year in 2004 and the Phillies gave up on him.

Chavez's reputed skill is his ability to steal bases. He's not prolific, but he's stolen 53 bases in 74 attempts, for a 71% rate (just above the break-even point). On his career, he has a .264/.303/.365 line and, without being better at stealing bases, he isn't a very good player.

I like Byrd a bit more. His 2003 was good enough to expect some improvements. He hit over .300, and, while the power wasn't really there, I was most impressed back then by the strides he made in the second half, when he hit .313/.369/.438. Those are very solid figures from a centerfielder.

Byrd fell apart in '04, though, OPSing less than .700 and not getting on-base at all. His stats were bad in AAA, too.

I think that Bowden made a nice deal here. Byrd has at least produced at some point in his career. Chavez hasn't. In either case, both teams were reluctant to give these guys second and third chances. Maybe the fresh starts will help.