clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

The End of an Era in Houston?

Jeff Bagwell is starting to think he's all done for in Houston, which is a sad prospect for myself, a lifelong Jeff Bagwell fan. The Houston Astros hats I own are basically my ode to Bagwell and Biggio (and previously Mike Hampton and Darryl Kile back in the day). Let's take a look at Jeff Bagwell's career numbers, and contemplate his Cooperstown status (because he deserves it, damnit!).

Jeff Bagwell (1991-2005)
H: 2311
HR: 449
2B: 488
BB: 1400
SB: 202 (72% success)
EqA: .322
Iso: .244
SecAvg: .440

WARP3: 126.4
Peak WARP: 53.1
JAWS: 89.75
BRAR: 941
FRAA: 62

Let's take a look at the average Hall of Fame first basemen, based on their DT Card scores:

WARP3: 98.2
Peak: 43.1
JAWS: 70.7
BRAR: 717
BRAA: 465

And Bagwell's differences, as compared to average HoF'ers:

WARP3: +28.2
Peak: +10
JAWS: +19.05
BRAR: +224
BRAA: +219
FRAA: +60

First ballot Hall of Famer, and I expect no different from the BBWAA when Bagwell's time comes (2010 at the earliest if he officially retires this year). Let's take a look at Bagwell's best season, 1994:

Bagwell (1994)
AB: 400
G: 110
HR: 39
2B: 32
BB: 65 BB
SB: 15 (79% success)
WARP3: 13.4
EqA: .382
VORP: 93.5

What a monster season...and he only played 110 games, with 400 at-bats. Imagine what would have happened if he did not break his hand and the strike had not occurred. It would have been one of the great seasons in history, and also could have had possible Triple Crown ramifications. That is, if Tony Gwynn had cooled off the chase for .400 anyways (finished at .394). Oh 1994: the year where Gwynn may have hit .400, Matt Williams may have broke the homerun record, Jeff Bagwell could have as well while winning the Triple Crown, the Expos may have finished in first, and a team from the AL West may have won the division under .500 (Rangers stood in first place at 52-62 at the time of the strike). What could have been...

By the way, on a closing note, Bagwell slugged .750 in 1994 (11th all-time as of now; 7th all-time back in 94': Three seasons from Bonds and McGwire's 1998 campaign moved Bagwell out of the top ten). Bags has had quite the amazing career, and is a first ballot Hall of Famer in my mind.

Of course, your own opinion is welcome in the poll.