Don't tease my title, alright?
Apparently the Washington Nationals are interested in acquiring Preston Wilson from the Colorado Rockies. This is a deal I think the Rockies should make, because getting out from under Wilson's contract is a must. Wilson is the kind of luxury that you deal with if you have a high payroll and are able to eat the contract for the amount of production he puts out. For a team like the Rockies, where much ado is made over Helton's contract and the possibility of moving him to restructure the payroll and team, moving out contracts like Wilson is a must. Under no circumstances can this team trade Todd Helton at this juncture:
2005 Rockies VORP
Clint Barmes 14.2
Todd Helton 8.5
Brad Hawpe 3.9
Desi Relaford 2.5
Aaron Miles 1.6
Cory Sullivan 1.2
Jorge Piedra 0.6
Mike Restovich 0.4
Luis Gonzalez 0.3
Alfredo Amezaga -0.1
Todd Greene -0.2
Jeff Baker -1.7
Preston Wilson -2.0
Garrett Atkins -2.6
Dustan Mohr -4.1
Matt Holliday -4.3
J.D. Closser -7.7
The Colorado Rockies offense at this stage is just awful, and Preston Wilson does own a negative VORP at this juncture. Granted, it should improve, but if you can move him off your roster (even if you have to pay a good chunk of his contract) for something, than you most definitely should. The Nats' farm system is rather thin, but they will have to give up an outfielder in order to use Preston Wilson, correct? With Holliday and Dustan Mohr both holding negative VORP scores, maybe acquiring Termel Sledge (who also has a negative VORP at the moment, but a .280 EqA) would not be the worst idea. If your the Rockies and picking up the tab, as well as dealing the desired piece in Wilson, than you can probably squeeze more than Termel Sledge out from under the Nats. Zach Day is in Frank Robinson's doghouse at the moment, but has shown an ability to pitch in the past. Termel Sledge and Zach Day for Preston Wilson and most of his contract paid?
2005
Sledge
.243/.348/.378
VORP: -0.2
EqA: .280
MLVr: -0.022
Wilson
.244/.290/.442
VORP: -2.0
EqA: .239
MLVr: -0.093
Day
VORP: -3.3
ERA: 6.11
DERA: 7.41
NRA: 7.51
PRAR: -2
K/BB: .71
K/PA: 0.094
K/9: 3.86
GB/FB: 1.53
Sledge and Wilson are a wash, and both teams might improve with the move.
Here are their PECOTA Projections as well:
Wilson
.269/.342/.493
MLVr: .076
EqA: .267
VORP: 7.3
WARP: 2.1
Sledge
.266/.342/.441
MLVr: .005
EqA: .275
VORP: 10.0
WARP: 3.4
Sledge is considered slightly above average defensively in left, while Wilson is below average in center. There is no reason for Colorado to stick with Wilson if they can move him for Sledge.
Zach Day is interesting, because his career numbers are so much better than this year's. Let's take a look:
Zach Day (2002-2005)
ERA: 4.19
DERA: 4.27
NRA: 4.30
PRAR: 97
K/BB: 1.17
K/PA: 0.117
K/9: 4.57
GB/FB: 2.36
We can see here that Day's previous good seasons were not due to his defense since his DERA is lower than his NRA, and that he is a groundball pitcher. In a park like Coors, that is a necessary thing. Also, all his peripherals are better for his career than for this season, so he may improve once out of Washington. It is a chance that the Colorado Rockies can afford to take. Sledge may not be the ultimate prize for Wilson, but if the Rockies can pull a successful Zach Day out of the trade, than kudos to Dan O'Dowd for the acquisition.
One issue with Day is that his K/BB is not very desirable, and the Rockies already have enough problems with pitchers that walk too many batters. Of course, Days ability to induce the groundball (and therefore, more double plays one should hope) may negate this problem, as he has succeeded in the past more than other pitchers (like Victor Zambrano) with walk issues. The Rockies need to take inexpensive intelligent decisions from here on out in order to improve their team, and going after Zach Day while unloading Preston Wilson and replacing him with Termel Sledge is a great place to start in my mind.