Thanks in large part to an offense that is both tops in the American League in runs scored (538) and OPS (.816), the Texas Rangers are making the AL West race a little interesting currently sporting a 50-46 record, sitting 7.5 games back of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Of the top four AL hitters in Value Over Replacement Player, three of them play for the Rangers, the league’s leader currently being second baseman Ian Kinsler at 52.4 runs.

Always blessed with immense talent, Kinsler is putting together an MVP-caliber season. He is currently hitting .337/.397/.548 with 14 home runs in 398 at-bats. Each of those slash stats are career highs and he’s one pace to set a career high in home runs, health permitting of course.

Baseball fans, particularly those of the Texas Rangers variety, have always known Kinsler has an All-Star caliber bat, but I think it’s safe to say none of us expected a first half like this. Even though he’s been overshadowed a bit by the great story of Josh Hamilton and his run at the AL’s Triple Crown, Kinsler may very well be the Rangers MVP this season. Let’s look at what Kinsler has done differently this year and if he can continue raking at such a pace.

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Part of baseball that we seem to love (and in many cases hate) so much is the unpredictability of pitcher performances. Cliff Lee, who spent a large part of last season pitching in AAA, is currently the American League’s top starting pitcher according to VORP at 37.2 runs. The talented Tim Lincecum, who started the 2007 season in A-ball, currently leads all major league pitchers in VORP at 38.1 runs. Edinson Volquez, who struggled to turn his immense talent into results with the Texas Rangers organization for five seasons, has now emerged as one of the National League’s dominant arms. Another example of a pitcher putting it all together to establish himself as an incredibly effective pitcher in 2008 is White Sox starter John Danks.

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Following the White Sox 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on June 1st, one could expect eccentric manager Ozzie Guillen to feel a little frustrated. His team had just dropped three games out of a four-game set to the Rays mustering a mere nine runs in the entire series. More revealing of their offensive struggles were the 65 men the Sox left on base during the series. The third game was the epitome of those struggles as the Sox went 2-14 with runners in scoring position eventually losing on a Gabe Gross walk-off home run. Following the game Guillen claimed he wanted moves made that upcoming Tuesday. Coaching changes, player changes, whatever. He claimed that if changes weren’t made by Tuesday, the lineup would be altered.

As usual, this was just another case of Ozzie being Ozzie. General manager Kenny Williams met with Guillen before the opening of a three-game set against the Royals that Tuesday. No moves were made and the batting lineup wasn’t distorted.

Since then the Sox haven’t lost a game. Entering today’s game against the Twins, the Sox were riding a six-game win streak thanks in large part to an offense Guillen said he was sick and tired of watching.

Here is a look at the Sox offense this season before and after the win streak (today’s 7-5 victory against the Twins excluded):

March 31st- June 1st: .247/.325/.402, 30.0 AB/HR, .272 BABIP

June 2nd-June 8th: .346/.400/.627, 18.0 AB/HR, .335 BABIP

As one can see, the Sox offense has been incredibly hot thanks in large part to an upped home run rate and a ridiculous .335 BABIP. Asking whether the Sox can sustain such a high BABIP is a silly, but the team is hitting 17.2% of their batted balls for line drives, so it was expected that a few more balls were going to turn into hits. Conversely, the home run rate may partially be explained by the fact the Sox have played all of their games during the win streak at the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, but many of the team’s struggling players, such as Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Nick Swisher, have started hitting a few more balls over the fence as well.

Can we expect the Sox offense to remain this hot throughout the course of the season? Of course not. Can John Danks and Jose Contreras pitch sub-3 ERA baseball the rest of the year? Unlikely.

But the Sox offense is better than what it showed during April and May and the team’s rotation and bullpen are good enough to make the club a legitimate threat to make a lot of noise come October.

All and all you have a White Sox team that has quietly mounted a 6.5 game lead in the American League Central and a team that currently has an 87% chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus.

Baseball fans need to start realizing things are going just as well on the South Side of Chicago as they are on the North Side.

Though the deal isn't officially complete, it appears the Mets are on the verge of acquiring perhaps baseball's most dominant pitcher in Johan Santana.

The Mets have been given a 72-hour window to sign Santana to an extension and given the relatively low price they paid for him, it seems almost inevitable Santana will be pitching many of his games at Shea Stadium in 2008 and beyond.

In some respect, it must be a sad day for Twins fans because Santana's numbers with their team speak for themselves:  A 93-44 record, 1308.2 innings pitched, 1381 strikeouts, 141 ERA+ along with two Cy Young Awards and three All-Star game appearances.  Not too shabby.

With all of that said, let's reminisce on just how dominant Santana has been over his career looking at the top ten games he's pitched according to game score:

Date:  September 3rd, 2005

Opponent:  Cleveland Indians

Game Score:  84

Box Score

Santana outdueled Cy Young candidate Kevin Millwood pitching 8 innings, giving up one run on two hits and no walks.  He struck out ten Cleveland hitters including Jhonny Peralta four times.   The Twins went on to win the game 3-2.

Date:  August 15th, 2006

Opponent:  Cleveland Indians

Game Score:  84

Box Score

In another good pitchers duel, Santana this time defeated Jake Westbook pitching 8 innings, giving up no runs on three hits and one walk.  He struck on nine hitters including Peralta and Kelly Shoppach three times each.  Minnesota would win 4-1.

Date:  September 3rd, 2004

Opponent:  Kansas City Royals

Game Score:  84

Box Score

Santana has always pitched well against Kansas City going 12-3 in his career against the Royals and this was one of his better starts.  Santana was flat out nasty pitching 7 innings, giving up no runs on one hit and one walk.  Every hitter in the Royals lineup struck out once with Santana compiling a total of 11 punchouts.  The Twins would win 2-0.

Date:  September 17th, 2005

Opponent:  Chicago White Sox

Game Score:  85

Box Score

This is why I, as a White Sox fan, won't be complaining that Santana won't be pitching in the American League Central next season.  In one of his many dominating starts against the ChiSox, Santana pitched 8 innings, giving up no runs on four hits and two walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Jermaine Dye four times.  The Twins went on to win 5-0.

Date:  June 28th, 2002

Opponent:  Toronto Blue Jays

Game Score:  88

Box Score

This one was Santana's first real dominant big league start.  Just 23-years-old at the time, Santana pitched 8 strong innings against the Jays, giving up no runs on two hits and three walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Jose Cruz Jr. and Vernon Wells each three times.  The Twins would win the game 4-0.

Date:  June 8th, 2005

Opponent:  Arizona Diamondbacks

Game Score:  88

Box Score

Quite possibly Santana finest interleague performance was a blowout.  He would pitch a complete game, giving up no runs on four hits and no walks.  He struck out nine Diamondback hitters including Royce Clayton three times.  The Twins would win easily 10-0.

Date:  August 12th, 2005

Opponent:  Oakland Athletics

Game Score:  89

Box Score

In yet another pitcher's duel, Santana would this time outpitch Dan Haren.  Each starter went nine innings, but Santana was just a hair better giving up no runs on three hits and one walk.  He would strike out nine hitters as the Twins went on to win a nail-biter 1-0.

Date:  September 5th, 2006

Opponent:  Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Game Score:  89

Box Score

In his 17th win of the season, Santana would pitch 8 innings against Tampa giving up no runs on two hits and one walk.  He struck out 12 hitters and the Twins went on to win 8-0.

Date:  July 6th, 2004

Opponent:  Kansas City Royals

Game Score:  92

Box Score

In arguably the second best start if his career, Santana dominated the Royals once again pitching a complete game, giving up no runs on three hits and two walks.  He struck out 13 hitters including Ken Harvey three times.  The Twins would win 4-0.

Date:  August 19th, 2007

Opponent:  Texas Rangers

Game Score:  95

Box Score

In one of his final home starts in a Twins uniform, Santana was simply was simply brilliant against the Texas Rangers.  Throwing 83 of his 112 pitches for strikes, Santana pitched 8 innings giving up no runs on two hits and no walks.  He struck out a career high 17 hitters as the Twins won 1-0.

If Johan Santana's days in Minnesota are indeed over, there isn't much question he put together a very memorable run, certainly one of the best we've seen in a while.

No, I'm not trying to turn Beyond the Box Score into a Cubs blog; I simply wanted to take another look at starter Carlos Zambrano.

Back in April of 2007, I posted a piece regarding Zambrano's rather pessimistic five-year PECOTA forecast.  For those of you who need your memory refreshed, here's a look:

As we can see, PECOTA projected good things for Zambrano in 2007, but it certainly accredited a downward trend in his overall production.  It also acknowledged the heavy workloads he had accumulated in his career up to that point may very well catch up to him as evident of the sharp decline in projected workload.

With the 2007 season long gone, let's take a look at how PECOTA did:

Nice shootin'.  Zambrano's ERA rose for the third year in a row and his peripherals continue to worsen.  While PECOTA was nearly dead on with the predicted home run and groundball rates, it was actually a bit generous on the strikeout and walk rates.  After showing a steady increase in his ability to strike hitters out, Zambrano's K/9 really went south in 2007 and his walk rate remained at a dangerously high level.

Maybe last season was just a bump in the road for Zambrano. Maybe it was just an aberration and he'll bounce back strongly in 2008.  Or is it that PECOTA is onto something here?

Back in May I suggested that Zambrano and the Cubs needed to do two things in order to "avoid" such a harsh projection:  Zambrano must control his emotions on the field and the Cubs coaching staff must watch his workload.

Unfortunately, neither of the two were fulfilled in 2007.

I once again have zero statistical evidence to back up this statement, but Zambrano still shows a tendency to pitch with too much emotion.  He still overthrows his pitches from time to time which often leads to poor control and far too many free passes.  And who can forget about the dugout fight with former Cubs catcher Michael Barrett?  As I mentioned earlier, Zambrano's emotions might very well be something holding him back.

More importantly, Zambrano continues to accumulate a ton of mileage on his right arm.  From 2004 to 2006, Zambrano placed eleventh, second and second respectively in Total Pitcher Abuse Points Accumulated.  Last season we saw more of the same, as Big Z placed second in that category once again.

There were a whopping 15 occasions last year in which Zambrano was forced to throw more than 110 pitches and four occasions in which he was forced to throw more than 122 pitches.  I understand that Lou Piniella wants to get innings out of his starters and that it's tough to get those innings when guys like Zambrano are putting runners on base and running into high pitch counts early in the game, but this is getting a little ridiculous.  

With Zambrano locked down until 2012 (for $91.5M), it's of the utmost importance the Cubs strongly monitor his workload.  He might be one of those guys that can "handle" heavy workloads, but that's a very expensive risk to take.

Though the projection is outdated, if PECOTA predicts Zambrano's five-year projection as well as it did his 2007 season, the Cubs made an awfully big mistake extending his contract into the next half-decade.

The Cubs have made plenty of noise this winter with the signings of both Kosuke Fukudome and Kerry Wood and it appears Jim Hendry may not be done yet.

Yesterday rumors begin to swirl around the web regarding the Brian Roberts to Cubs trade rumors.  Some sources originally claimed a deal was imminent, while others claimed the Orioles asking price may be a bit too high for Jim Hendry's likings.

Whatever the case, talks are clearly taking place between the two clubs and Brian Roberts may very well start at second base for the Cubs come Opening Day.

Hendry clearly isn't satisfied with what his organization has to offer at second base, but perhaps the best option is right in front of him in Eric Patterson.

Now, I'm not saying Roberts isn't a sensible option.  Last season he hit .290/.377/.432 and his VORP of 48.2 runs was good for third best among all major league second basemen.  He stole 50 bags at an 88% clip and moving to the National League is something he would likely benefit from. He was clearly a top five second basemen last season and assuming he doesn't lose his line drive stroke, he should be quite good in 2008.

One could argue this is just what the Cubs need.  The acquisition of Fukudome gives the Cubs arguably one of the strongest lineups in the National League; a trade for Roberts would really put the icing on the cake.

My question is:  Should the Cubs trade top-tier talent for Roberts or is Patterson a better in-house solution?

We all know what Roberts can do, but what about Patterson?

I've written of Corey's younger brother in the past and while he's certainly not the "toolsiest" 24-year old, he does project quite well.  Though it's a bit outdated, here is a look at his PECOTA five-year projection:

Patterson's 5-year valuation is quite strong and given the fact he hit .297/.359/.457 in his first full season at AAA, he should project as a pretty solid major leaguer in '08.  A few questions have been raised about his ability to play second base, but even with below average defense he's quite a commodity:  A young second basemen with strong on-base ability and decent pop making the major league minimum is something a number of GM's would kill for.

I'm interested to see what PECOTA has to say about Patterson for 2008.  His 2007 season at AAA was good enough to the point where the Cubs felt comfortable giving him a mere 8 major league at-bats, but he's definitely a better option than Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa and I wish he would have seen some time at second for the Cubs last season.

As a stat-oriented fan, Eric Patterson is the type of player I like.  However, I must admit that if the Cubs have the opportunity to strike a relatively fair deal with the Orioles to acquire Brian Roberts they should jump all over it.

In my opinion, Roberts would give the Cubs the most potent offense in the National League and he would surely give them the opportunity to make a run at the pennant in 2008.

If the Cubs however can't strike a deal for Roberts, there is no reason Cub fans should start throwing chairs.  Assuming Hendry realizes what he has in Patterson the way he did with Geovany Soto, the Cubs have a pretty good in-house solution available for second base.

With the trades of both Dan Haren and Nick Swisher, the Atheltics have completely revamped what looked to be a pretty weak farm system.

Though one can argue the Athletics did not acquire one "sure prospect" in either of the trades, they have acquired a number of talented players, many of which have the ability to make a difference at the major league level.  Let's take a look at each of the nine players the A's have acquired in their (possibly first two) big trades of the winter:

Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in Haren trade):  The immensely talented 22-year old had a very solid 2007 season split between AA and AAA hitting .288/.336/.478 with 17 homers in an even 500 at-bats.  You'd like to see a bit more plate discipline from a corner outfielder (Gonzalez took only 38 walks last season), but his upside is outstanding.  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus notes that his tools rate as outstanding and he even makes a Hanley Ramirez comparison claiming that Gonzalez might be ready to produce in the majors despite the fact his previous minor league season wasn't dominant by statistical standards.  It's also worth noting Gonzalez has played centerfield before and while he's probably no future gold glove winner, he won't make a fool out of himself out there either.

Brett Anderson (acquired in Haren trade):  A former second-round pick, Anderson's first professional season went well as he posted a 3.07 ERA and 125/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 120.1 innings split between two levels of A-ball.  Though he's more of a lefty command pitcher without nearly as much upside as the recently acquired Gonzalez or De Los Santos, Goldstein argues he's one the finest pitching prospect in the Oakland system citing his breaking ball and changeup as both plus pitches.  It'll be interesting to see how Anderson performs at higher levels of play, but Oakland's got a good one here.

Chris Carter (acquired in Haren trade):  I've written of Carter in the past:

He had a monster season at A-ball last year as a 20-year old hitting .291/.383/.522 with 55 extra base hits (25 of which went out of the ballpark). He can hit, that's not much of a question, but his speed on the base paths and defense at first base both rate as below average.  Possibly the most intriguing aspect of Carter's presence is the pressure he places on Daric Barton.  Barton figures to start at first base for the A's come Opening Day, but if his power development continues to stall, Carter may find himself in Oakland's future plans quite soon.

Aaron Cunningham (acquired in Haren trade):   Scouts have generally given Cunningham lukewarm reviews due to the fact he doesn't really have a single skill that stands out, but he's a very interesting player on a statistical level.  As a 21-year old, Cunningham had a very strong 2007 season hitting .308/.375/.509 in 493 at-bats between A+ and AA.  He hit 16 home runs, but added in 31 doubles and 10 triples.  Before the season began, PECOTA saw some upside listing Lastings Milledge, Nick Markakis, Matt Kemp and Jeff Francoeur as comparable players.

Dana Eveland (acquired in Haren trade):   A possible sleeper in the Haren deal, Eveland hasn't had much success at the major league level, but he boasts career 8.84 K/9 and 2.61 ERA marks in the minors.  Eveland has above average stuff for a left-handed pitcher as he can get his fastball in the mid-nineties and usually showcases a pretty good breaking ball.  Not likely to start, he could be a pretty effective relief pitcher out of the Arizona bullpen health permitting.

Greg Smith (acquired in Haren trade):  I haven't read too many scouting reports on Smith, but from a statistical perspective, it seems he's more of a control lefty that's generally done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark.  That might be a bit fluky however, seeing as his groundball rates aren't very eye-popping.  He didn't place on Goldstein's top 11 prospects list, so I'm assuming we have nothing special on our hands.

Faustino de los Santos (acquired in Swisher trade):  In my opinion, the finest pitching prospect the Athletics have acquired this winter.  As a 21-year old, De Los Santos was brilliant at both levels of A-Ball posting a 2.65 ERA and 153/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 122.1 innings.  Equally brilliant are his scouting reports as Kevin Goldstein named him the finest prospect in the White Sox system before the trade.  His fastball and curve both rate as plus pitches with excellent movement and the development of his changeup is crucial as he moves up to higher levels of play. Goldstein notes that many scouts are torn as to whether his major league future is in the starting rotation or bullpen, but whatever the case, he's a damn good pitching prospect with star potential.

Gio Gonzalez (acquired in Swisher trade):  Goldstein placed Gonzalez right behind Los Santos on his White Sox Top Prospects list and it's easy to see why.  As a 21-year old in his second season at AA, he pitched very well posting a 3.18 ERA and 185/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 150 innings. Goldstein mentions that while his changeup is still a work in progress, his fastball and curveball both rate as plus pitches, his curve possibly being one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues.  On the downside he's a flyball pitcher that was having his second go-round at the AA level. Like Los Santos, Gonzalez might eventually end up in the bullpen, but for now he'll remain a starter and he could very well make his first major league start next season.

Ryan Sweeney (acquired in Swisher trade):  Sweeney has always had the skills scouts love, but the production, particularly in the power department, just hasn't emerged yet even after two stops at AAA.  At 22 years old, he's still plenty young and may just be a late bloomer, but many are having their doubts especially after he hit .270/.347/.398 in his second try at AAA.  Things wouldn't look so bleak if he could play centerfield, but his defensive abilities truly limit him to a corner spot.

As a whole, that's an impressive bunch of young players even when you consider the fact they have traded arguably their finest starting pitcher and finest offensive position player.

For better or for worse, Billy Beane has a plan and he's certainly showing that he has the guts to carry it out this winter.

So yeah, this one's a bit late, but being a White Sox fan I feel compelled to write about Monday's trade between Chicago and Arizona.

First let's look at things from Arizona's perspective.  

With Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Justin Upton each patrolling the Diamondback outfield, numerous baseball officials and those around the blogosphere felt the D'Backs would try to package Quentin and Double-A outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in a trade to acquire a much needed starter. Things obviously didn't work that way so the D'Backs settled for the lesser-known Chris Carter coming from the White Sox farm system.

Only 21 years of age, Carter still has a long way to go before reaching the majors, however he's already developed a reputation as your classic first baseman who can flat out rake, but offers very little on the speed and defense front.

Here's a look at Carter's numbers thus far into his short career:

As we can see, Carter is not afraid to hack away. He's shown a pretty good eye over two levels as evident of his walk rates, but he's a big time strikeout guy as well.  Still far too early to tell, but Carter looks like your prototypical three true outcomes type player.  Its worth noting Carter did improve both his walk and strikeout rates in his first full A-ball season.

Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein recently rated Carter as the #4 prospect in the White Sox system citing his tremendous strength, power to all fields, ability to draw walks and the fact he has no particular weakness against left or right-handed pitchers as his primary strengths.  His poor defense, lack of speed and high strikeout frequency are his obvious weaknesses.  Goldstein also notes Carter should begin the 2008 season at High-A ball.

Carter doesn't figure to have an immediate impact with the D'Backs, but Conor Jackson needs to pick things up if he wants to have any sort of long-term career with Arizona.

For Kenny Williams, he can certainly breathe a little easier now.  In my opinion, the White Sox needed to pursue both a centerfielder and a leftfielder when the winter meetings began.  One down, possibly another to go.

Quentin figures to step right into the White Sox vacant left field position, a place where players such as Scott Podsednik (-4.9 VORP), Rob Mackowiak (6.1 VORP) and Andy Gonzalez (-18.6 VORP) have recently called their stomping grounds.

The 25 year old didn't by any means put up All-Star caliber numbers last season; injuries and such limited him to a .214/.298/.339 line in 229 AB's.  However, he went under the knife this past October to repair his non-throwing arm and boasts a career .312/.427/.526 career MiLB line.

Assuming Quentin is in tip-top shape when the season begins, he's easily going to outproduce the like of Podsednik, Mackowiak and Gonzalez and could be a nice little bargain for the White Sox as he'll certainly make less than $1M big ones next season.

As a Sox fan, I love this deal.  Quentin will provide a little youth to an aging White Sox lineup and he's years away from testing free agent waters.

The only knock against Quentin is that while he'll likely be an above average corner outfielder next season (health permitting), he doesn't project as much of a superstar.

The Sox however, who received a .256/.322/.399 line from their leftfielders last season, will be ecstatic with any above average play at that position.

Just for kicks, Quentin's 2008 Bill James Handbook Projection looks like this:  .263/.341/.455 with 13 home runs in 380 AB's.

I personally feel that projection is a little light on workload and batting average.  For a guy that posted a MiLB batting average of .312, I expect a little better than the '08 Bill James Handbook.

Many have argued this winter's relatively weak free agent class would result in an offseason dominated by trades.

Just a day after Matt Garza was swapped for Delmon Young in a former top prospect super-trade, another former top prospect was traded, this time the Mets' promising outfielder Lastings Milledge.

The Mets sent Milledge to the Nationals today for catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church.

Like many around the baseball blogosphere, I'm a little shocked the Mets received so little.  Milledge only hit .272/.341/.446 on the year in a small sample of 184 AB's, but we're all aware of his tremendous talent and just how well he projects.

The same guy the Mets were thinking about trading for Dan Haren or Joe Blanton last January is now being traded for the likes of Schneider and Church.  How quickly things change.

I was very impressed with Jim Bowden when he acquired Wily Mo Pena from the Red Sox for cash considerations and a PTBNL; I feel this is yet another instance in which he has walked away with highway robbery.

Fangraphs recently made the 2008 Bill James Handbook projections available on their player cards, so let's take a look at how each player involved in the deal projects this upcoming season:

If you're a fan of the Bill James Handbook then it's difficult to defend Omar Minaya's decision to move Milledge.

Milledge and Church have strikingly similar projections whereas Schneider looks like he will once again carry out his reputation as a good glove, no hit catcher.

Maybe it's just me, but doesn't keeping Milledge and bringing back Paul Lo Duca sound a lot more intriguing than trading Milledge for Church and going with a catching tandem of Schneider and Johnny Estrada?

There's a good chance Milledge and Church produce at the same level next season however, Church doesn't present nearly as much upside, he's older and Milledge is farther away from reaching free agency.

Perhaps there were other "personal" issues that contributed to Minaya's decision to make this move, but from an analytical perspective I just can't defend it.  Hats off to Jim Bowden.

The night of October 26th, 2005 was an unforgettable night for myself as well as many citizens of Chicago.

That night the White Sox ended an 88-year drought sweeping the Houston Astros in the World Series to win their first championship in quite some time.

How the White Sox went about their business that season was a baseball representation of the South Side of the city:  The Sox were a blue-collar, hard working team that took on the name "grinders."

Perhaps nobody represented the White Sox "grinderball" style of play more than Scott Podsednik.  Podsednik wasn't by any means the White Sox most productive player that season, by sabermetric standards or not, but he quickly became a fan favorite particularly because of his ability to steal bases and score runs early in a ballgame.

Before the 2005 season, the ChiSox offense carried a reputation for being too one dimensional.  Many believed the Sox were too dependent on the longball and needed to integrate elements such as speed and the ability to move runners over via the bunt in their offensive attack.  In other words, "small ball" was the solution.

I don't want to turn this into a "big ball" vs. "small ball" rant, but Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen obviously agreed as they traded slugger Carlos Lee and a PTBNL to the Brewers for Podsednik and relief pitcher Luis Vizcaino.

A good number of White Sox fans (at least the ones I've encountered at the ballpark) view this trade as a success; after all, the Sox went on to win the World Series.  

But being the sabermetric blog that we are, we'll take a look at the trade from a statistical perspective to see just who came out on top.

The Trade

Here's how the trade broke down:

White Sox receive:  OF Scott Podsednik and RP Luis Vizcaino

Brewers receive:  OF Carlos Lee and 1B Travis Hinton (minor leagues)

Baseball Prospectus' Christina Kahrl offered her thoughts on the trade a few months after it was completed:

One aspect of the deal that cannot be ignored are the financials.  Just speculation on my part, but this deal may have been a disguised salary dump by the White Sox.  In trading Lee, Chicago saved around $6M with Lee's $8M going to Milwaukee and the Sox taking on Podsednik's $700K and Vizcaino's $1.3M.

Perhaps that extra $6M in Jerry Reinsdorf's pocketbook gave the Sox a bit more flexibility to sign Tadahito Iguchi (2-year/$4.95M), Orlando Hernandez (2-year/$8.0M) or even A.J. Pierzynski (one-year/$2.25M).

Focusing on the deal itself though, it appeared from the get-go that the Brewers we're clear winners.  Lee had just come off a season in which he hit .305/.366/.525 tying a career high in home runs (31) and setting career highs in OPS+ (127), EqA (.300) and WARP3 (8.8.).  Lee's plate discipline was always a bit sketchy however and his defense was never regarded as above average.  He was far from a perfect player or even a great player, but he was bringing power to a Brewer offense that was dead last in the NL in slugging percentage (.387) in 2004.

Podsednik had just come off a 2004 season in which he stole a ridiculous 70 bags at a success rate of 84%, but he hit just .244/.313/.364; poor by even center field standards.  His WARP3 that year was 3.7 wins.  Add in the fact Podsednik would move to a corner outfield spot, where offensive expectations are sky high, and one realizes the Sox we're really taking an offensive hit here.

Vizcaino had been one of baseball's unsung heroes in 2004 and if the Brewers were losing anything valuable in this deal it was his arm.  His WXRL that season of 2.750 was second among Milwaukee relievers and he was incredibly durable pitching 72 innings out of the bullpen.

Regardless, this trade looked like a major steal for Milwaukee at least by statistical standards.  Even though they were losing a pretty valuable arm out of the bullpen, they were acquiring one of the league's better offensive corner outfielders who was under contract for the next two seasons.

The Results

Here is how the White Sox and Brewers have fared from this deal in terms of WARP.  A couple of notes:  Travis Hinton's WARP is not included due to the fact he hasn't appeared in a major league ballgame.  Carlos Lee's 2006 WARP includes his time with the Milwaukee Brewers only.

To my great surprise, it appears this trade actually turned out pretty even.  Lee's WARP during his time with Milwaukee was a combined 8.2 wins above the replacement level player while Podsednik and Vizcaino combined to produce 8.6 wins.  If anything, the Sox may have fared a little better.

What hurt Lee's value so greatly was defense in left field that was almost unbearable to watch.  In 264 games with the Brewers, Lee's FRAA was -17 runs.

Offensively, his first season in Milwaukee was somewhat disappointing.  Lee no longer had the luxury of playing half of his games at the launching pad that is U.S. Cellular Field, and he hit only .265/.324/.487 in his first season with the Crew.  He WARP dropped a little over three wins from his previous season and his VORP dropped nearly 14 runs as well.

His 2006 season with Milwaukee was much better with the bat as he hit .286/.347/.549 in 435 at-bats.  Later that season Lee was traded to the Rangers along with prospect Nelson Cruz for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero, and Julian Cordero (minors).  At the time it looked like Milwaukee may have been a little shortchanged in the deal; Lee was having a very good offensive season and his name was drawing interest from multiple teams.  But given the re-emergence of Francisco Cordero last season, it looks like the Brewers received a pretty good package in return for their former corner outfielder.

Podsednik's first season with the White Sox was very up and down.  During the season's first half, he hit .294/.369/.344 stealing 44 bases at an 83% success rate.  During the second half, he hit .284/.326/.356 stealing 15 bases at a 52% success rate.  His second half slump may have been affected by a quad injury, but he clearly regressed down the stretch.  Despite struggles near the end of the season he remained a fan favorite and after his walk-off home run in game two of the World Series, he guaranteed the fact he'll never have to buy himself a beer at a bar again in Chicago.

Podsednik's following season once again featured injury problems and a very poor second half.  Pods was healthy during the season's first half hitting .276/.353/.391 in 312 AB's, but battled injuries in the second half hitting an awful .241/.296/.297 in 212 AB's.  It was during this time many began to believe Scotty Pods' future in Chicago was in doubt.  Kenny Williams searched frantically for a replacement corner outfielder the following winter, but came up empty and brought back Podsednik on the strength of a one-year/$2.9M contract.

As if it's become a re-occurring thing, Podsednik once again battled injuries throughout the 2007 season, this time making two trips to the DL and hitting .243/.299/.369.  The White Sox now have better options in the outfield and Podsednik's days at least as a starter in Chicago are now over.

Luis Vizcaino's tenure in Chicago didn't last very long at all as he wasn't one of Ozzie Guillen's favorite arms out of the bullpen.  Despite a very good season in Milwaukee during the 2004 season, Vizcaino wasn't trusted by Guillen or his staff and was rarely inserted in high leverage situations.  His WXRL dropped from 2.750 in 2004 to 0.292 in 2005.

He was traded the following along with then prospect Chris Young and Orlando Hernandez for Javier Vazquez.

Final Thoughts

It appears Lee's time in Milwaukee is done as well as Podsednik's and Vizcaino's time in Chicago.  Before I wrote this, I was almost certain the Brewers were huge winners in this deal, but after taking a look at the numbers; this trade was actually quite equal.

However, it must be said that those WARP numbers are based on both offense AND defense.  BP's Davenport Translations are questionable at times and the DT's think Lee's defense was quite awful.  While Lee is widely regarded as a defensively challenged corner outfielder, just how subpar his defense actually was is open to different interpretations.