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Which Cardinal Had the Best Batted-Ball Luck?

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xBABIP offers us an insight into just how lucky or unlucky individual Cardinals were on balls in play in 2013.

Back of the Envelope: Mets Shouldn't Bank on Hitter Regress to Improve the Offense

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Back of the Envelope: Mets Shouldn't Bank on Hitter Regress to Improve the Offense

Batter Regress Tool Updated with xBABIP and more Players

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Batter Regress Tool Updated with xBABIP and more Players

Monday Rockpile: Jose Lopez and the Mystery of the Missing BABIP

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Jose Lopez has played his entire career in a generally offense-suppressing park. Can a move to a hitters' haven resurrect Lopez' career?

What’s Ailing AJ?

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What's ailing A.J. Pierzynski? Hint: Not Feline AIDS. Shameless self-share. Well, maybe I'm a little ashamed.

A New xBABIP Model

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Over at The Hardball Times, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix have come up with a new model for establishing xBABIP. It goes beyond just line drive rate to include speed, general location of hit, plate discipline, contact rate, park, handedness, and more. You can read the article for all the thrilling details. I wonder how it compares with the work done by our own ZeppelinDZ here and here. There's also a download of all the data they ran from the last four seasons and comparison with the Studeman's older (and still useful) LD% + .12 model. For those of you have have lives, I'll list some of the Royals 2008 "luck rates" here. Positive numbers indicate they were lucky, negative, unlucky. I guess that Callaspo, German, TPJ, and MITCH didn't make the cutoff point. Avilanche 10.73 Grudz 3.11 G-Load -.74 Butler 2.15 DDJ .45 Guillen -1.53 Teahen -3.79 Olivo 4.87 Buck -4.87 Gordon 3.73 Gathright 43.92 Not too many surprises here. Aviles shows up as lucky on every "luck neutralizer" I've seen. Gordon is a bit of a surprise, but when you realize that's 3.73%, it's not that different (and keep in mind this has little to do with power hitting). If you buy this model, then Olivo's speed doesn't explain his greater BABIP success than Buck this year -- I'm still betting that given equal playing time next year (wherever they end up), Buck has a better offensive season. This is Gathright when he's lucky? He, Aviles, and perhaps Olivo are the only ones who really stand out as exceptionally lucky this past season to me.

Ty Wigginton: A Sell High Opportunity for the Astros

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It appears that Ty Wigginton's career year in 2008 was just that: a career year.

Do Fast Players Get More Hits On Balls In Play?

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In theory, fast players can turn outs into hits by utilizing their speed: they beat out ground balls, they lay down bunts, they force infielders to play more shallow than they otherwise might. But...

On Edwin Jackson

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To state the obvious, he’s not going to possess a 0.93 WHIP or 0.64 ERA for the rest of the year, month, and probably not even the week. His numbers thus far are simply a mirage and the lake that...

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