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NL Central: Standings vs. Fan Confidence

Which NL Central teams have revealed their true talent level?

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2010 BsRized Standings

I don't have a whole lot to add, but I'd like to present the 2010 BsRized standings (without commentary). Team-level Base Runs were generated using the following formula in conjunction with data...

BP Projected Standings are up

For those without a subscription, Wicked Good Sports Red Sox Blog has a screenshot of BP's projected standings up. Some surprises: The A's take the AL West with 82 wins. Their OBP also is 6th in the AL, a big improvement over the last place they sported last year. The White Sox are projected to go from first to last in the Central, and the World Series Teams are both in 3rd place in their divisions. Computers obviously have no glue about how many wins Championships add the following season. The Mets allow the fewest runs in the NL? Tim Redding makes that much of a difference from last year's rotation?

Early Projected Standings using THT Projections

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has some very early projected standings up. From the site: Here are the results of 100 trials of the 2009 season using rosters as of yesterday and projections from the Hardball Times. Since there are so many FA still out there it's quite early to do this (the author acknowledge this). Thus there's a high bias for the Yankees since they signed their FA early. Still 100+ wins on average is quite impressive, with the fewest runs allowed in the AL as well. Other things of note: The AL West has no team .500 or over in it, projecting -20 wins for the Angels from last years 100. Top and bottom are only separated by < 5 games. The White Sox have gone from top to bottom in one season, a full 8 games below the Royals. I'm sure Ozzie Guillen would have a couple choice words for that computer. Like their city brethren the Mets project the best record in the NL. The Cubs unsurprisingly are second and lead the NL Central. But the NL West leader is a bit of a surprise, the Rockies on top even after losing Matt Holliday. I guess a healthy Tulowitzki and Helton must give them a large boost in the simulator. Even Pirates fans can get into this as they tied for the Wild Card in one simulation. Orioles and Nats fans, sorry.

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