On the average, the run value of a high inside fastball is -.001 where minus is good for the pitcher. The run value of a low outside fastball is +.001. In other words, the run value of the former is better than the run value of the latter.
Now, put all pitch sequence and game theory stuff aside.
In an average situation against an average batter, where those run values above absolutely apply, which pitch should a pitcher attempt to throw, and why?
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MGL - Inside the Book Blog
The answer I gave, which MGL later said to be correct is: Low and away.
Your phrasing: "which pitch should a pitcher attempt to throw, and why?" The key word is attempt. If you make a mistake down and away, you probably won’t get burned as much as if you make a mistake going up.
If he has perfect control, then by all means take the one which the better value, but there is human error involved.
