Tag: pecota

Change Scope

Filter By

PECOTA Adjusted National League Playoff Odds (5/7)

7
  1. Dodgers 88.9%
  2. Cubs 65.4%
  3. Mets 47.9%
  4. Phillies 45.3%
  5. Cardinals 40.7%

PECOTA Adjusted American League Playoff Odds (5/7)

3
  1. Red Sox 71.2%
  2. Yankees 63.5%
  3. Tigers 43%
  4. Rays 37.1%
  5. Mariners 31.1%

TBA: Updating 2009 Predictions

4
BUT YOU SAID PECOTA IS NEVER WRONG! I have yet to go an off-season without hearing something like this, despite also having yet to ever see anyone say PECOTA is never wrong, as a projection system will always be to a degree as long as it's merely a system of educated guesses. (PECOTA just happens to be more educated and reliable than anyone else you know.) In any case, Sky Andrecheck at The Baseball Analysts takes an early look at what mistakes PECOTA may have made based on the first three weeks of the season, with a discussion of actual mistakes versus mistakes made with simple poor luck (teams exceeding their "true winning percentage" over a sample of 162 games which is still rather small). It includes a look at the very surprising Marlins, with an analysis of how good they've been, how good PECOTA expected them to be, and then a combination to make a more educated guess at how good they really are. There's a lot of great statty meat in there, as well, for the purposes of you super baseball geniuses out there. Most awesomely to me, though, is a full projection of standings using the combination of actual three-week data and pre-season projections. Congratulations to the Cleveland Indians on winning the division with a .500 record!

5 Essay Titles, One of Which Will Make Me the Shoo-In Winner of BP Idol

6
  1. Defensive Metric Showdown: FRAA vs. Rate2
  2. Beating Marcel in Most Categories as a Baseline for "Deadly Accuracy"
  3. References to Edward Gibbon: The Key to Successful Transaction Analysis
  4. If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It (for at least 3 years): The History and Development of WARP
  5. Yeah, but What Was Sean Smith's Prediction for the 2008 Election?

MLB Network talks about PECOTA. Harold Reynolds treats it as a dangerous religion out to ruin what...

10

MLB Network talks about PECOTA. Harold Reynolds treats it as a dangerous religion out to ruin what baseball is made of. I get a head ache.

The Yankees offense ain't all that?

2

At least that's what PECOTA thinks. BP's system has the Yankees more than 50 batting runs behind CHONE and CAIRO projections. The most notable disparity is Posada, who PECOTA thinks is gonna die and be 6 BR less valuable then Brett Gardner? I don't have a BP sub anymore so I'm not sure if its mostly a playing time issue but that's rough. I bet JORGE SAYS NO to that. The other large gap between CHONE/CAIRO and PECOTA is Arod, who is pegged at 107, 110, and 97 batting runs respectively. One commenter over there noted that PECOTA thinks A-rod will decline by two full wins instead of the usual half-win, which I frankly don't understand.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker