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Primer on Linear Weights


Intro to Saber 101 has the advantages/disadvantages of linear weights. As always, if I got anything wrong, please point it out. Thanks.

Cubs f/x: Updating Run Values by Count


After a reasonable beta version, I updated my run values by count data and posted it over at Tom Tango's place. As a result, I got some great feedback and corrections. This is the result.

Tonight I'm Going to Rock You (Tonight): The Myth of the RBI Guy, Part Two


In Part Two of this series, (part one is here), I revisit the issue of the "RBI Guy" using FanGraphs' RE24 stat, and hopefully don't mess it up too badly. Basically, I explain and discuss RE24 to the best of my ability to see if it helps or hurts the case of some guys having the ability to drive runners in, an ability that might escape the grasp of traditional linear weights.

Revisiting the Myth of the RBI Guy, Part One


This is the first in a two-part series I'm doing using different stats to see just how overrated some "run producers" are by their RBI numbers. It takes its inspiration from Jonah Keri's piece in Baseball Between the Numbers, but uses different (and better) stats -- wOBA/linear weights rather than MLV/VORP. I have some links to some nice "leaderboards" that I put on Google Docs. Next week, I'll revisit the topic using some of FanGraphs more contexual stats.

Non-Linear Cost-Per-Win Part III - Beyond the Box Score


On the field in 2008 the Mets were worth $3 million more than they were paid. The Mariners were worth $116 million less.

wOBA Position-by-Position Averages 2008


I did a spreadsheet of this stuff at the request of someone at Royals Review, but I thought people here might be interested. You can get more of my explanation by following the above link to my FanShot there.

wOBA Positional Averages 2008


At the request of a party who shall remain anonymous, I have constructed a spreadsheet to give pseudo-Fangraphs-style positional wOBA averages by position for 2008 MLB, AL, and NL. I still think the best general model for such averages is something like this (see my related FanShot here), but it is interesting to see how closely the empirical data from last year matches up. I've even included a silly wOBA-fied version of baseball-reference's OPS+. Since I'm guessing Fangraphs' version of wOBA will become the most frequently cited, I've used a formula that I think they are using -- that is, one that excludes reached base on error (this makes sense for them, since I assume they are using the baseball databank data, which doesn't include that information). They also use custom linear weights for each year, which I don't use here. However, Tom Tango (the creator of wOBA) notes that the weights since 1956 don't stray all that far from the generic formula. I think Fangraphs is great, and is quickly becoming the best source for sabermetric data on the internet -- free or pay. Personally, I prefer that ROE be included in wOBA, since I do think it at least partially reflects player skill. Stat Corner does so (and they also have park-adjusted wOBA*). I would also prefer that both sites includes stolen bases and caught stealings in the formula (I don't think they do -- but correct me if I'm wrong). But they have their reasons. I have a sheet ready with SB/CSs and also one with ROEs if people are interested. Update: Thanks to the coment below, I now realize that Fangraphs does include SB/CS in their wOBA figures, and have corrected the spreadsheet.

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