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...Not only that, but since expansion in 1969, your chance of scoring a single run is better with a...

...Not only that, but since expansion in 1969, your chance of scoring a single run is better with a runner on first and nobody out than with a runner on second and one out. Get that? Your percentages for scoring ONE RUN is better. Now, a manager may believe that these so-called numbers are wrong, that hundreds of thousands of innings and at-bats and situations are wrong, that what is right is the manager's own instinct for avoiding the double play and putting his RBI guy up in the right situation. I don't begrudge a manager for thinking that or a team for believing in that manager or fans for wanting it to be true. I just wouldn't call it smart ball.

Joe Posnanski | Chinese Jibberish Posnanski, through a somewhat ugly metaphor, explains that non-stat people make it harder than it really is. Essentially, the counterarguments to the scientific approach to baseball are almost entirely red herrings. Either way, I question how much value time spent refuting the non-stat people really has. At some point we're arguing with people that don't want to know any better. Seems like they're the exact same people that deny ev...never mind.

Defending Harold Reynolds

Bad writing does not make the analysis bad. Incomplete analysis does not make the analysis wrong. And using a different language requires those who don't speak the language to translate what's being said, not slam the language being spoken. Sometimes we statheads have to meet the non-statheads half way, instead of expecting them to come to us while we hurl grenades into the path they're walking.

Boy, Did that Strict Pitch Count Ever Screw Up Nolan Ryan's 1987 Season

In a recent SI article, Joe Posnanski (in an exchange with Bill James) speculates that Texas Rangers President Nolan Ryan's opposition to pitch counts stems in part from his frustration over being put on a strict pitch count in 1987. Just how bad was Ryan's 1987?

Joe Posnanski on Zack Greinke

I love Zack Greinke. I love Joe Posnanski. JoePo decided to write about Greinke for the upcoming issue of Sports Illustrated, and the article is already available online. Why are you still reading what I'm writing? Here's a teaser: "The riddle was posed by Greinke himself: What do you follow, your mind or your arm? 'Sometimes my arm wants to throw a hard fastball,' he says, 'but my brain doesn't want to throw it that hard.' 'Who wins the clash between your brain and the arm?' reporters once asked him. 'I dunno,' he said."

Joe Posnanski is the Count of Counting Counts

Joe Po once again makes me jealous my team doesn't get such great beat writing. Today he put up an interesting piece on what tends to happen by every count in a plate appearance. It would be even cooler with a look at what type of pitch is thrown most often (anyone feel like doing that?), and it's certainly fairly in line with anecdotal wisdom and homework we could all do ourselves. But, Posnanski did it himself and, as a bonus, it comes with Posnanski writing. What I find most interesting is that it may make more sense to swing on the first pitch than I realized. Hitters apparently OPS 52 points higher on the first pitch than they do on successive pitches. A lot of that, of course, is that hitters should only swing at first pitches than can actually hit. . . The second interesting tidbit is how close averages are between a 1-0 count and an 0-1 count. There's also a couple interesting old scout tidbits of wisdom in there that are, at the very least, intriguing baseball talk. Part II Here

Who Should Pick Hall Of Famers

Beyond the Box Score presents some alternatives to the BBWAA voting for Hall of Fame candidates. We can certainly do better, but what's the best election method?

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