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Predicting the Next Jose Bautista: Part I, Explaining HR Change

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Predicting the Next Jose Bautista: Part I, Explaining HR Change

Graph of the Day: Raul Ibanez, Citizen's Bank Park, and Safeco Field

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Today's graph examines the effects that Philadelphia's Citizen's Bank Park have had on Raul Ibanez's tremendous season. How much has the move from cavernous SafeCo Field to the hitter-friendly Bank...

Graph of the Day: Frank "Home Run" Baker and Production in the Dead Ball Era

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Frank "Home Run" Baker led the Major Leagues in home runs for four years in the 1910s and never hit more than 12 home runs in a season.

Lucky Home Runs Through The First Two Months

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There have been 19 home runs this year that were only home runs because of favorable conditions, including HRs by such sluggers as David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, and Ryan Howard.

Using www.hittrackeronline.net to examine the ridiculous dimensions in Minute Maid Park. This...

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Minutemaidparkhomers

Using www.hittrackeronline.net to examine the ridiculous dimensions in Minute Maid Park. This image shows 4 home runs that would be HRs in 27 of the 30 parks, but not in the Juice Box. There has yet to be a home run hit in Houston between the two black lines. More here

THT: What Makes a Home Run Pitch? The Hardball Times' Jonathan Hale puts together a terrific...

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THT: What Makes a Home Run Pitch? The Hardball Times' Jonathan Hale puts together a terrific analysis of what pitches leave the mark most often by location and type. That there is just one of the many awesome graphs in this post. Sliders three feet off the ground are the most popular pitches to hit home runs on. Righties also really, REALLY, like to destroy inside changeups, and inside curveballs from right handers. Hale puts together some nice summaries from the data: 1. If you can spot a pitch on the very corner, be it the very bottom of the zone or right on the outside corner, then there is a miniscule chance that it's going to leave the yard. 2. All pitches left high are home run pitches, not just offspeed ones. 3. Down and away isn't many a pitchers bread and butter for no reason, as both are very important to sap home run power.

Personal Park Effects

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Jeremy Greenhouse at TBA has an excellent, comprehensive break down of home run effects in the various MLB ballparks in one, awesome post. It looks at how the parks effect specific types of hitters and in what ways, rather than a sweeping generalization of the number of home runs hit in a park. As he says, "My idea is that not all park effects are uniform. For example, I believe that Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia are largely aided by the Green Monster, to a greater extent than most hitters and Johnny Damon's home run production has been largely influenced by the short porch in Yankee Stadium's right field." There is no baseline established (at least in part 1), and doesn't appear to me to be adjusted for the hitters who hit those home runs (something I assume can skew the data), but it is none the less interesting and eye-opening. I feel like the study of more specific effects like this are the future of park adjustments; an area of data analysis that I think is good but can always use improvement. Some of the parks have some seriously fascinating effects. I wish I was good enough at taking in numbers at first glance to stop my head from spinning and spout off more observations. Any thoughts?

Interesting Pitches to Take Deep

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PITCHf/x doesn't have every pitch thrown, it does include 280 home runs from the 2009 regular season (through April 15).  Here are some notable pitches that were returned rather abruptly. Fastest...

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