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Phillies Cole Hamels & the Progressive vs. Arcane

Cole Hamels has had an up and down season, but his performance becomes more newsworthy than it deserves. It leads to discussion of historically bad numbers.

And one thing I can tell you: baserunning, hitting, pitching -- and especially the bullpen -- is...

And one thing I can tell you: baserunning, hitting, pitching -- and especially the bullpen -- is not only important in the National and the American League, but all around baseball.

Eduardo Perez on Baseball Tonight

FG: Small Sample Size Usefulness

Dave Cameron has a little bit to say about dismissing three weeks of evidence based on small sample size. His argument is, essentially, that many in the sabermetrics community tend to cling to the SSS tennent so tightly that they will resist anything that may run counter to their pre-season predictions entirely, when some of the information is actually pretty useful. I think he has a pretty good point, and uses Victor Martinez and updated ZiPS projections to help make it. And, he caught the eye of Rob Neyer, who linked to his FG post and summed up the whole idea pretty well, I think: "Every day gives us numbers that mean something, and every additional day gives us more meaning. And I think that's especially true when you're talking about a team that's made big changes, or a player like Martinez who's coming off an obviously aberrant season. Everything counts."

Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker on Baseball Tonight. He's talking about the New Yankee Stadium's...

Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker on Baseball Tonight. He's talking about the New Yankee Stadium's home run happiness, which has been pounded to death already, but whatever. It's still cool. I really want a video of Nate Silver, though. . .

Priorities.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

Priorities.

ESPN Battle of the Budgets: Least Surprising Result Ever

Rob Neyer's team, which has the lowest payroll, beats Steve Phillip's, which has the highest payroll, 4-1. Yeah, they should be playing 100 or 1000 game series on the computer, but the recaps would take forever... Something is so perfect about this matchup -- a "stathead" versus a "real baseball man." Kurkijan is merciless in his writeup: "This isn't a fair fight. Steve Phillips, a former general manager of the New York Mets, a guy who built a real major league team for seven years, against Rob Neyer, a baseball writer, a stat guy. Baseball writers don't know anything about baseball; neither do stat guys. Ask any manager. Phillips had the highest payroll in the tournament, Neyer the lowest. This had sweep written all over it... A writer beat a former general manager. We might be on to something here."

Oh. My. Goodness.

So I'm waiting for the Braves/Nats game to start and I figure hey, why not try Baseball Tonight this season, it can't be as bad I remember, right? Well... Karl Ravech: "Nick Punto is a reason...

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