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Rally updates his Historical Wins Above Replacement back to 1871

As Rally notes, the pre-Retrosheet (pre-1955) defensive stuff is kinda shaky, but this is still super-cool.

Boy, Did that Strict Pitch Count Ever Screw Up Nolan Ryan's 1987

In a recent article for Sports Illustrated, Joe Posnanski cites Nolan Ryan's experience with pitch counts in 1987 for Ryan's current opposition to them. Exactly how "terrible" was Ryan's 1987 season with the Astros?

The Player that was, the Manager that is, and the Executive that isn't

Is A. J. Hinch really in a spot where he canc help the Diamondbacks the most in the long run?

Graph of the Day: Gwynn vs. Edgar vs. Raines vs. Schilling

Comparing the seasons of Tony Gwynn, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez and Curt Schilling through the lens of wins above replacement.

2008 WAR Totals of Five 2005 Draftees from www.baseballprojection.com

  1. Jay Bruce -0.2
  2. Ryan Zimmerman 0.9
  3. Troy Tulowitzki 1.2
  4. Ryan Braun 2.1
  5. Alex Gordon 3.3

TotalZone on First Base Prospects

Looking at Sean Smith's TotalZone fielding metric and applying it to the top first base prospects in baseball

TotalZone on Corner Outfield Prospects

Comparing the fielding of top corner outfielder prospects in the minors with the help of Sean Smith's Total Zone statistic

TotalZone on Third Base Prospects

Looking at Sean Smith's TotalZone fielding metric and applying it to the top third base prospects in baseball.

Minor League Splits Now Has Defensive Numbers

No, it's not a version of UZR or plus/minus, but it's something. It's a version of Sean "CHONE" Smith's TotalZone, so I believe that, like TotalZone for the majors, it uses RetroSheet )or RetroSheet-style) data to reconstruct, as best as possible (with heavy regression, etc.) hit location. Very interesting stuff. Smith has an interesting piece on historical fielding numbers (reconstructed from Retrosheet) in this year's THT annual. The usual caveats about defensive metrics (particularly ones that don't have hit location available) and player development apply, of course. Keep in mind the small sample sizes, that players are usually away from their defensive peak (and in many cases, are learning new positions), and so on. So this in no way should be taken to "overrule" scouting reports. Still, this is a cool thing, and TotalZone is generally considered to be right there with the best of its kind (with Dan Fox's no-longer available Simple Fielding Runs, Pizza Cutter's OPA!, etc.). h/t to R. J. Anderson and Beyond the Box Score Also cool that they have home/road splits, which I don't see elsewhere. Interesting numbers: Mike Aviles (linked page above): At SS: 2005 -4 2006 0 2007 +2 2008 +3 at 2B: 2005 -4 2006 +8 2007 +4 2008 +6 Billy Butler at 1b: 2007 +1 2008 -2 at LF 2005 -18 (total) 2006 -9 at RF 2006 -35 MITCH at CF: 2005 -3 2006 -14 2007 +10 2008 +13 Joe Dickerson 2005 -23 at CF, 0 at RF 2006 -2 at CF 2007 -1 at CF, -8 at LF 2008 +1 at RF D-Rob 2006 -3 at CF, +1 at RF 2007 +1 at LF, 0 at RF, -14 at CF 2008 +5 at CF Jeff Bianchi: 2005 +10 at SS 2006 +1 at SS 2007 -1 at 2B, +5 at SS 2008 +9 at 2B< -2 at SS Huber (LF only) 2006 -11 2007 +7 2008 +1 Kila: 2005 +2 2006 +4 2007 +5 2008 -3

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