Tag: 2009 mlb trade deadline

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Brewers Acquire Felipe Lopez from Diamondbacks in Salary Dump

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From multiple Twitter sources, including @RotoWorld_BB, the Diamondbacks today traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers in exchange for minor leaguers Cole Gillespie (OF) and Roque Mercedes (P). Before the season, John Sickels ranked Gillespie as a C prospect, which means his expected future value is about $.5M since he's already 25. I can't find Mercedes in Erik's spreadsheets, so he's likely even less valuable, which you might expect given he's a 22 year old reliever in A+ ball. Felipe Lopez, well, he's going to make about $1.75M the rest of the way and can play a variety of infield positions. He just can't play them very well, with a career (well, since 2002) -11 UZR/150. Over 1/5 of the innings at 2B, he's actually been average, though, which is surprising given his play at short. If that holds and his wOBA the rest of the season is around .331, as ZiPS predicts, he's basically a league-average player, worth 1 WAR the rest of the way. Earning slightly below free agent value, traded for some nothing prospects, and considering the importance of the games the Brewers have left to play, acquiring Lopez is a solid move by Milwaukee. And given that the Diamondbacks have little to play for in 2009, this is a nice salary dump for them. As minor trades go, this is a good one for both sides. What do you think?

Matt Holliday to the Braves? - MLB Daily Dish

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I just saw this rumor about the A's possibly (probably not) trading Matt Holliday to the Braves in exchange for "only" Yunel Escobar. This would be a steal for the A's, even if they picked up all of Holliday's remaining 2009 contract. Holliday's due about $6M the rest of 2009 and might produce, say, 3 more WAR, which is worth $14M on the FA market. The team losing him after the season would also collect a nice Type A package of draft picks, worth about $5M according to Victor Wang. Net gain? $13M Now, take Escobar. He's a 3 WAR player who's (I believe) entering his first arbitration season next year. Over those three seasons, he'll be worth $14M each year ($42M total) and be paid about 60% of that in arbitration ($25M), at most, since defense is underrated in the arb process. This year, he makes nothing, and will provide 1.5 more WAR, worth $7M on the FA market. That's $25M in payments for $49M in value through 2012, or a net value of $24M, not including any potential draft pick package when he leaves. So, do you want $13M in excess value or $24M? (Rhetorical question.) Sure, the Braves and Athletics are in different situations, with the former valuing every additional win this year nearly infinitely more than the latter. And that makes this trade a zero sum game. But it's hard to believe the 1.5 wins the Braves would pick up this season would be more important than Escobar's value over the next three seasons, even if the A's picked up Holliday's salary this year. And even if those 1.5 wins really are critical, they could probably pick up somebody better than Holliday, due to Escobar's amazing value.

Being an Analyst, Being a Fan

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Okay, I'm not much an analyst. But I do like to pretend. The link above is to my "objective" analysis of the Betancourt tradee (and also covers the Francoeur-Church disaster). This is my reaction as a Royals fan: Is Dayton Moore the Bravest GM in Baseball, or the Bavasi-est? Maybe my narcissism the contrast will interest some people.

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