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Getting Tossed =/= Winning Games

One of those age old myths is that a manager getting ejected from a game can will his team to victory. Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox is the all-time leader in ejections, and his players seem to buy into it:

"Whether it's a string of base hits or we get our brains beat in," Jones said, "one way or another, it seems like momentum turns whenever he (Cox) gets ejected."  

In that same article Scout.com writer Brian Walton looked at the rankings of ejections and wins of the top 10 all-time. Surprisingly - or perhaps not - the leader in ejections per games managed, Bill Dahlen in nearly 11% of his total games, was last in winning, meanwhile the least ejected, Tony LaRussa, was fifth in victories.

We see manager ejections on highlight reels constantly, the more vulgar the better, kicking dirt on the umpire? Excellent, crawling and throwing rosin bag grenades? Everyone will know your name within a week.

Taking the 2007 season and number of ejections per managers I decided to see just how much validity the adage that managers getting tossed igniting their teams to victory holds.  By taking each manager ejection account and seeing their team's record in the games compared to their seasonal winning percentage we try and establish if there's any relationship between the two.

Take Terry Francona, his team won the World Series and 96 games during the regular season, he was also tied for second place in manager ejections, yet his team only won half of the games he got tossed from. Seattle managers Mike Hargrove and Jim McLaren got tossed in three games total, each was in a Seattle blowout loss. Manny Acta of Washington saw one game from the showers, his team won that game - does that mean he's a master motivator? Same with Joe Torre, the Yankees were 2-0 in games he got rang up.

League-wide there must be one winner and one loser in each game, meaning a 50% win/loss record overall, in games where at least one manager is ejected teams won 30 of 68 cases, a 44.1% of victory. Below the chart shows the correlation between winning teams and ejections - showcasing the pure randomness of winning a game in which your manager has been ejected.

The results shouldn't be too much of a shock; after all most ejections fall into two situations could lead to an ejection: either a manager is upset at a close call in a tight game or a manager is tired of seeing a lackluster effort from his team and gets thrown out. One thing is clear; there's no "right" temperamental for a manager if he wants to win, each manager was tossed at least once, but each had varying team results.

Resources:
Scout Article
2007 Ejections

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of course there are more losses in games in which a manager is ejected. isn't it obvious that  a manager is more likely to be upset when his team is losing. if the team is up 8-2, why would a manager go out and throw a fit over a close call?

You are assuming that an ejection can only have an effect on that particular game. those that want Maddon to be a bit more vocal at times believe that it can show the fans and more importantly the players that he cares about winning and that he has the players backs NOT that they think it will help the team rally in that one game. and if the players see how much the manager cares about them and about winning they are more likely to run through walls for the manager.

if you wanted to break it down a better way. look at how teams do when a manager is ejected in a tie game or even a 1-run game. or look at how teams do in the game immediately after an ejection or the 5-10 games after an ejection compared to the 5-10 games prior. I am still not sure those are good correlations but they would be better.

The Revolution will begin soon...

by Devil Ray Guevara on Feb 3, 2008 6:58 PM EST reply actions  

Following 10 games
Taking the top two and a handful of mediocre teams:

Braves:
April 22 LWL WWL WLW W 6-4
May 6 LWW WWW LLW L 6-4
May 26 LLW LWW WLL W 5-5
June 23 LWW WWW LLL W 6-4
23-17 58%(season: 52%)

Phillies:
May 1 LWL WLL WWW L 6-4
May 23 LWW WLL LLW W 5-5
June 1 WWL WWW LWL W 7-3
June 17 LWL WLW WLW L 4-6
22-18 55% (season: 55%)

Astros:
April 13 LWW WWW LLL L 5-5
May 11 WWW WLL WLL L 5-5
June 8 WLL WLL WWW L 5-5
15-15 50% (season: 45%)

Twins:
May 5 LWL LLL WLL L 2-8
June 26 LWW WLL LWL W 5-5
7-13 35% (season: 49%)

Jays:
April 21 LWW WLL WWL L 5-5
June 27 LLL LWL WWL W 4-6
July 20 WWW WWL LWL W 7-3
16-14 53% (season: 51%)

by RJ Anderson on Feb 3, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

In-game performance after ejection
I think your analysis misses the key point of the argument for managers getting ejected. The argument is not that managers tend to get ejected in games they win, but that by getting ejected, they pump up their team to perform better. While I'm skeptical that there's any real correlation here, statistical analysis should not focus on overall games and winning percentage, but how the team performed in each individual game after the manager was ejected as opposed to before, with all the controls such an analysis requires.

by Ethan Stanislawski on Feb 4, 2008 4:23 AM EST reply actions  

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