Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Fedor vs Rogers Results and Live Coverage

Randy Johnson to the D'backs...Again

Arguably the greatest left-hander of all-time, Randy Johnson was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for relief pitcher Luis Vizcaino and minor leaguers Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson and Alberto Gonzalez. The D'backs also extended Johnson's contract through 2008; if healthy, he'll help anchor the top of the rotation for two years in the NL West while Arizona's young pitching prospects progress through the minors.

Luis Vizcaino is your basic middle of the bullpen reliever; he'll give Joe Torre another arm to burn through in 2007, but isn't a dominating presence by any means. As for the kids in the deal, neither Ross Ohlendorf or Steven Jackson are top pitching prospects. Kevin Goldstein did not rank either pitcher in his Top Ten Arizona Diamondbacks Prospects piece -- by the way, if you've been missing KG's prospect series, you're missing some of the most informative writing of the offseason -- although some of that might have to do with their system being loaded and all. John Sickels rates all three prospects as Grade C+ (comments from his 2007 prospect book are in that post) and Keith Law seems to approve of the D'backs acquiring Johnson without giving up any of their top talent, "not even Dustin Nippert, whom they've been offering around all winter." Both of the minor league pitchers involved in the deal seem to be future relievers, which is good for New York in the long run, but is not quite the stockpile of young starter arms that Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman is making it out to be.

Alberto Gonzalez is not much of a hitter; he hit .290/.356/.392 for the Tennessee Smokies of the Southern League, and seems to be an extreme groundball hitter (52%) with a low line drive rate (17%). That's just a one-year sample, but no one seems impressed with his bat. His glove on the other hand...

Alberto Gonzalez Plays Above Average per 150 Games, 2006
Pos Team Lg IP Pl +/- PAA/150
SS Tennessee SL 1054.7 348 24 30
SS Tucson PCL 35.3 10 0 4
SS Total PCL 1090 358 24 30

Those defensive numbers are courtesy of Minor League Splits, and they are impressive. Gonzalez may eventually find a job in the majors as a defensive specialist, if those are any indicator of his true abilities.

As for Randy Johnson, he's still got some left in the tank. Last season was brutal, but it was a combination of bad luck and poor health. Johnson let 38.2% of all baserunners score, allowing a very poor .321/.363/.564 line with runners on to opposing hitters. His flyball rate was up slightly from the previous two years (42.5%, as compared to 38.2% and 37.3%, in 2005 and 2004 respectively) and his homerun rate inched upward from 1.25 to 1.33, although his HR/F actually dropped 1.8% from last year. Johnson's struggles were every other month, with April starting off well, and September finishing up horribly. Most of his trouble came in the 3rd and 4th innings, which leads me to believe that his back was bothering him more as the game wore on. That's just a guess, though.

Nate Silver points out that Johnson's BABIP was .369 with runners on, and only .239 with the bases empty. Pitching from the stretch may have aggravated his back somewhat, as the numbers are very skewed everywhere you look with runners on or off. It could be poor luck, poor health, or a combination effort of the two causing the discrepancy. His Peripheral ERA was 4.20, over three-quarters of a run lower than his actual ERA, and his FIP was 4.37. Throw in a potentially healthy back along with a lack of bad luck, and Johnson's a pitcher you want at the top of your rotation again.

This is an excellent move by the Diamondbacks to stay in the arms race in the National League West without giving up anything of substance, and the Yankees may end up regretting this deal if their rotation does not pan out as planned. Carl Pavano is a walking question mark, Kei Igawa may be over matched as a starting pitcher in the powerful American League East, and Andy Pettitte's elbow could cause trouble somewhere down the line. The Yankees did add a few useful pieces by trading Johnson, but it is a half-step backwards for 2007, as Cashman noted.

0 recs  |  Comment 0 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006

Recent FanPosts

Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly
Redcap_small
Ricky Nolasco: 4 WAR or 1 WAR?
Redcap_small
Apparently I can't do park adjustments
Small
Which tells us more: The last 7 at bats or 7 at bats against this pitcher?
Sleepy_jeff_small
How Efficient and Effective Were the Rockies in 2009?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

The Mistake Lottery
On the Field, the Yankees Are The Team of the Decade. Off It? The Red Sox.
Tigers' all-time WAR leaders
Primer on Runs Created
How to improve basketball
LB Keith Bulluck uses a sabermetric analogy to explain the Titans' quarterback situation.
Alcides Escobar "abandoned his daughter before she was born"
UZR, Scouting, and the Fans
Not-So-Lousy Lineup Optimizer, Playoff Edition: New York Yankees

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Most Commented

Limes_125_small
Time To Move On
Aviles_small
Minnesota: Fielding TargetView Before & After JJ Hardy
Nando_small
A Complete and Lenghty List of Baseball-Related Things Miguel Olivo is Good At
770insig_small
Negative Team WAR - 2009 Edition
E52205a2_small
New Look

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright