Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Steve McNair Found Shot to Death


Player Aging Patterns Over Time

Baseball fans often talk about when a player is in his prime or peak years. In this article I examine whether or not that peak has changed over time. Also, I look at how older players have done over time-are they a growing percentage of all players? Are older players doing better than older players used to do?

Star-divide

To compile this data, I used the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.The table below shows what percentage of players who had 400 or more plate appearances (PAs) in a season were a certain age. The age which had the highest percentage is in red.

It might be hard to tell if there is any pattern there. But in recent decades, older players have been playing more. The graph below shows this.

It sure looks like players over 35 and 39 are playing more. I am not sure why or what it means. There is another interesting age/timeline chart at the end of this article.

I then looked at all players in 4 25-year periods who had at least 10 seasons with 400+ PAs and found at which age did they most often have there best year and what was the average age at when they had their best year. The stat I used was RCAA or runs created above average. It comes from the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. Here is how he defines it: "It's the difference between a player's RC total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs. A negative RCAA indicates a below average player in this category." It is also park adjusted. Runs created was initially a Bill James creation which is an estimate of how many runs a player creates for his team based on his stats.

So the table below shows what was the most common peak age and the average. There was a tie in the third period.

It does not look like much change over time. Then I found the top 100 seasons in RCAA for each of the 10 decades of the 20th century. The table below shows the average age for the top 10, top 25 and top 100 in RCAA in each decade.

Things do fluctuate a bit here. The highest average age for the top 100 is the last decade. The next table shows how many players 36 or older made in to the top 10, 25 or top 100 seasons in RCAA for the different decades.

Ted Williams at age 38 had the third highest RCAA of the 1950s in 1957 with 113. Hank Aaron had the 9th highest in the 1970s at age 37 with 73. The next table does the same thing for players 40 or older.

It is rare for a player 40+ to make this list. Ted Williams in 1960 had an RCAA of 53 (tied for 49th in the decade). He was 41. Willie Mays was 40 in 1971 when he had an RCAA of 47, good enough for a tie for 55th. Now Barry Bonds had the highest RCAA ever in 2001 (169) at age 36. Most fans know he did very well in 2002-04 as well.
I have an article on Bonds where I discuss his aging patterns.

0 recs | Comment 2 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Bonds
He's been very good this season after a slow start. He's hitting .258/.458/.529 with an EqA of .332 in his age 41 season. I'd actually love to see what he could do if he was a DH in the AL. Considering Aaron switched leagues to add on to the record (NL record of 733 homeruns), Bonds should be able to switch to catch up.
"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Sep 10, 2006 10:58 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bonds
Bonds

I'm surprised he has not already gone over to the AL. I think I heard he was not interested.

Pre All-star HR% 6.3  Post All-Star  8.46%

(although I recall seeing a warning recently about small sample sizes)

HR/PA pre all-star  4.56%    Post all-star   6.7%

A full healthy season sould get him 25 HRs

by Cyril Morong on Sep 10, 2006 12:44 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

P1_iannetta_small
Matt Herges: The reason we look at peripherals
Small
SLG and Speed
Small
Interleague Attendance Nonsense
Limes_125_small
A Note About Becoming a BtB Author: Contributing to the Community Helps
Small
Is Adrian Beltre underrated...?
Limes_125_small
How Do You Like the New Daily Link Roundup Posts?
Stlouiscardinals_small
Depth Charts Help
Zorilla_small
How Do You Measure a Pitching Coach?
Limes_125_small
Looking For SQL & Tech Geek Help For Collaborative Projects
Small
When do MLBers get paid...?

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

There's your human element.  Why, when the technology is readily available, are humans still calling balls and strikes?
Fire Jim Leyland: Fu-Te Ni Follow Up; Concern Over Big Three?
Rany Gets Banned By the Royals
Contract Retrospective: Vernon Wells' 7-year, $126 Million Contract
The Rockets are innovative
Flip Flop Fly Ball
Yanks Considered Trading Rivera For Wells In '95: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
Bullpen Usuage Charts for Last 5 days
MiLB Game of the Week
Drive Mechanics Looks at Chris Perez's Mechanics and Pitch F/X numbers

Post_icon New FanShot All FanShots Carrot-mini

Most Commented

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social

BtB on Facebook

BtB_Sky on Twitter


Managers

Mos-def-the-ecstatic_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Rickstache_small erik

Authors

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Hms_surprise_small Graham

Wisc19cropped2_small jhmoore

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

E52205a2_small tbsmkdn

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports