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NRAA2 Revisited

After getting some necessary feedback on a new statistic called Net Runs Above Average, I am ready to try and present Net Runs Above Average 2, the second form. This one will be used as a sort of predictor of future performance, basing its numbers off of an established performance level. Instead of the simple formula stated in my last article on NRAA, this will be the one used.

Firstly, find the EPL for MLVr:

MLVr EPL = (3 * PAx * MLVrx + 2 * PAy * MLVry + PAz * MLVrz) / (3 * PAx + 2 * PAy + PAz)

Where x = most recent year, y = second most recent year, and z = third most recent year

Then, find the EPL for Rate2:

Rate2 EPL = (3 * AdjGx * Rate2x + 2 * AdjGy * Rate2y + AdjGz * Rate2z) / (3 * AdjGx + 2 * AdjGy + AdjGz)

Where x = most recent year, y = second most recent year, and z = third most recent year

From here on out, it is the same formula as plain old NRAA:

1. Net Runs Per 100 Games
(EPL MLVr*100)+ (EPL Rate2 - 100) = Net Runs/100 G

2. Net Runs Per Game
Net Runs/100 G / 100 = Net R/G

3. Net Runs/n Games
Net R/G*n = Net R/n G

Now, for the comments once again. All I wanted to provide today was what was asked for from the commenters on the original post on NRAA. NRAA itself is fine I think, but NRAA2, the one shown today in this post, is the one that needed work done to it. Is this enough to make it work in your minds for what I want it for? Comments and criticism's appreciated.

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments

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Nope
That was a different question...I had no idea Keith Woolner used it in the mailbag.

I was referring to the feedback I received from readers and from e-mails I sent out to specific people on NRAA. The MLVr thing was for an article a ways back on Overbay and Millar.

"I don't set the rosters, I just make fun of the guy who does" - Rob Neyer

by Marc Normandin on Jul 6, 2005 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Subject:
That weighting system you put in place does fix the only serious flaw I noticed. Whether or not those weights are the best ones to use for each year is for someone other than me to figure out.

by Jim Wisinski on Jul 7, 2005 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Weighted EPL...
is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

by Richard Wade on Jul 8, 2005 12:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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